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I have the same wrist size as you and I would say 40mm is possible if you are comfortable with it.
I have owned the 16570 (47 mm lug to lug) twice, but have concluded that it was too large for me personally. It wasnīt comfortable on the wrist so I ended up not wearing it that much. I sold it a few months ago and I donīt regret the decision - even though I absolutely love the reference.
The largest watch I own now is the 36mm Explorer 124270. It is a large watch for me, but very comfortable and I think it suits me well.
For sports models I would look into some of these references: Daytona 116500 (38,4mm and 46,37 lug to lug), the GMT Master ref 16700, 36mm Tudor Submariners, Omega Seamster 36mm ref 2262.50 and some of the smaller Royal Oaks (for example ref 56303) and Nautilus 3800.
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