Abandunce of models suddenly - a theory

[KarlS]

Many might know I am a huge fan of the 5327 blue dial and for various reasons being holding back (Baselworld etc). However every dealer I go to seems to have one in the window. Isn't it selling??

Then I noticed when looking for 5205R my AD only received them in October every year! Wierd!! No ways I was going to wait

Then we have had a surge in 5131R's...increasing production? Cleaning out the cupboard??

Here is my theory following chats with various AD's and Salons and my interpretation.

PP is a profitable business and Swiss. Known for efficiencies and precision...it's obvious they schedule production runs. We know the cases are made in batches as are dials so it makes sense that in a factory of 2000 watchmakers they know down to the date and hour which assembly line will be doing which assemblies and how many and for how long. It's therefore feasible that following a run of Worldtime or 5327 these are shipped globally. You will therefore see a glut for a period of time until demand absorbs the supply. So perhaps it's not a case of over production or no demand but rather timing in a production cycle!

Hopefully we will all sleep easier after that epiphany

[GB-man]

Maybe. Hard to say without more information. Your theory is essentially that Patek ships worldwide in batches instead of feeding the ADs hand to mouth. Sounds reasonable.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by KarlS

PP is a profitable business and Swiss. Known for efficiencies and precision...it's obvious they schedule production runs. We know the cases are made in batches as are dials so it makes sense that in a factory of 2000 watchmakers they know down to the date and hour which assembly line will be doing which assemblies and how many and for how long. It's therefore feasible that following a run of Worldtime or 5327 these are shipped globally. You will therefore see a glut for a period of time until demand absorbs the supply. So perhaps it's not a case of over production or no demand but rather timing in a production cycle!

Hopefully we will all sleep easier after that epiphany

Yes it s valid ,when i ordered my 5712 the AD said i can have it in March since he got a OC from PP for that date ,the piece was returned and he said the next production/delivery date is in early July ,so the factory produce every references according tight schedule and they ship those out at once the batch is ready.I think Mr.Thierry use the dealer network as a finished product stock.

[lapince]

PP is a profitable business? Really? I thought they were non profit... that's another swiss brand, not very big, around 1 million per year

For the rest of course it's logical, they clearly don't make watches by a few dozen and try to make the most of one model at the same period, why not try to make the most profit from each model

[jon_jon]

It is true that Patek manufactures watches in batches, which makes sense from a production efficiency standpoint. How many pieces they produce for a specific reference, we don't know. We also do not know what the allocation percentages are for each region. There are some rumor saying that HK is getting less allocation and US is getting more.

Karl, I think the blue dial 5327G is a very nice watch. I hope you purchase the watch you like and get to enjoy wearing the watch. I see many people not purchasing a watch they like because of fear that it is a slow mover and you will lose money on resale. In that case, the AD should be motivated to sell the watch and theoretically one should be able to purchase the watch at a significant discount.

[jon_jon]

Duplicate post.

[KarlS]

Jon if you can PM me a AD that gives discounts that would be great as I get to USA quite a bit. Sadly my AD gives me a cup of coffee although I did moan the last time and he threw in a biscuit!

[texex91]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Jon if you can PM me a AD that gives discounts that would be great as I get to USA quite a bit. Sadly my AD gives me a cup of coffee although I did moan the last time and he threw in a biscuit!

No poaching our AD's Karl.

We like to keep the application pieces (and large discounts) readily available for our purchase pleasure as needed

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Many might know I am a huge fan of the 5327 blue dial and for various reasons being holding back (Baselworld etc). However every dealer I go to seems to have one in the window. Isn't it selling??

Then I noticed when looking for 5205R my AD only received them in October every year! Wierd!! No ways I was going to wait

Then we have had a surge in 5131R's...increasing production? Cleaning out the cupboard??

Here is my theory following chats with various AD's and Salons and my interpretation.

PP is a profitable business and Swiss. Known for efficiencies and precision...it's obvious they schedule production runs. We know the cases are made in batches as are dials so it makes sense that in a factory of 2000 watchmakers they know down to the date and hour which assembly line will be doing which assemblies and how many and for how long. It's therefore feasible that following a run of Worldtime or 5327 these are shipped globally. You will therefore see a glut for a period of time until demand absorbs the supply. So perhaps it's not a case of over production or no demand but rather timing in a production cycle!

Hopefully we will all sleep easier after that epiphany

I think there is some validity to your post in that watches appear in a "glut-at-a-time" pattern. This is correct.

However, I still think that that TS is making too many watches. I'm sorry Karl to be negative, and I know I've been really negative a lot on this forum recently but I'm used to a Patek's of all kinds being hard to get and dealers complaining that they don't get enough. I'm used to pieces coming in and the dealer calling me in so I can take a look and then telling me, he'll happily put me on the wait list for next one as "these are all taken."
I'm used to NEVER seeing a PP PCC sitting in a window anywhere in the world.

Strange times.

In other news 5205R is amazingly hot and has been since release! Nice watch!

[codecow]

Lol Karl, was it a good biscuit?

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by codecow

Lol Karl, was it a good biscuit?

I am bringing my own next time!!!

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by texex91

No poaching our AD's Karl.

We like to keep the application pieces (and large discounts) readily available for our purchase pleasure as needed

I am still hunting down Jamie!!

[texex91]

Originally Posted by KarlS

I am still hunting down Jamie!!

You do that...he has many nice gifts for your full price purchases

[thomaspp]

Karl, my friend, I think there is some truth to that. Patek as far as I understand are made in batches and they go out to market a number at a time so there are perceived "oversupply" of watches for certain references for a period of time.

Now, I'm going to be very frank (as I think we should all be on TRF!), in my personal/humble opinion there are not all that many current production Patek that are in tremendous demand at their current retail prices. Sure everyone will beg their AD for a nautilus with 5711 and 5712 leading the way, and of course for a 5131, and a select crowd will beg and plead for 5524, 5164, 5168 and the 50th anniversary and advanced research references (all of which are very "hot" references with tremendous demand in my view), but there are many many references in the catalog that will sit, and sit for a long time on store shelves including annual calendars, chronos, etc. (which is a real pitty..... and is where I think we are seeing an issue of producing more watches than there is real demand). As to the 5327, I have come across a good number in the grey market at 20% off in the U.S. (europeanwatchcompany had 2 for sale this week!) and that is telling to me of not a lot of demand for this reference. Best regards.

Edit: What kills me is that if you look at how the brand did things 10 years ago (and not to say I was into Patek 10 years ago because I was not) and in speaking to long-time collectors, things have changed, and not for the better. Your long-time collectors remember the days when pure chronographs (your 5070s) and your PCCs (your 5970s) had 4-5 year wait times.... But maybe times are changing (a lot more information available to everyone now, etc) and the company has to evolve so I guess me and everyone else has to accept that.

[Jetkopite]

Spot on Thomas !!!

[RussW]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Karl, my friend, I think there is some truth to that. Patek as far as I understand are made in batches and they go out to market a number at a time so there are perceived "oversupply" of watches for certain references for a period of time.

Now, I'm going to be very frank (as I think we should all be on TRF!), in my personal/humble opinion there are not all that many current production Patek that are in tremendous demand at their current retail prices. Sure everyone will beg their AD for a nautilus with 5711 and 5712 leading the way, and of course for a 5131, and a select crowd will beg and plead for 5524, 5164, 5168 and the 50th anniversary and advanced research references (all of which are very "hot" references with tremendous demand in my view), but there are many many references in the catalog that will sit, and sit for a long time on store shelves including annual calendars, chronos, etc. (which is a real pitty..... and is where I think we are seeing an issue of producing more watches than there is real demand). As to the 5327, I have come across a good number in the grey market at 20% off in the U.S. (europeanwatchcompany had 2 for sale this week!) and that is telling to me of not a lot of demand for this reference. Best regards.

Edit: What kills me is that if you look at how the brand did things 10 years ago (and not to say I was into Patek 10 years ago because I was not) and in speaking to long-time collectors, things have changed, and not for the better. Your long-time collectors remember the days when pure chronographs (your 5070s) and your PCCs (your 5970s) had 4-5 year wait times.... But maybe times are changing (a lot more information available to everyone now, etc) and the company has to evolve so I guess me and everyone else has to accept that.

Thomas I can guarantee you that if the 5070 was still in production, being made in the very low quantities it was back then, everyone would be complaining how ridiculous it was. We might look back and think those were the days, but the 5070 would be impossible to get now. Would that make people happy?

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by RussW

Thomas I can guarantee you that if the 5070 was still in production, being made in the very low quantities it was back then, everyone would be complaining how ridiculous it was. We might look back and think those were the days, but the 5070 would be impossible to get now. Would that make people happy?

I hear you. People are never going to be happy! Make too many, prices plummet in secondary and make too few and people complain! As a humble collector, commenting on or suggesting what PP should do is silly and I have to assume that Thierry believes this is the most lucrative and best way to manage the company.

All I can say is that as a collector, I vote with my purchases and I have not felt compelled to acquire a current production Patek (aside from a very short list of 5711s and other nautili and 5131s) after I sold my 5205. I love stopping by my local AD, who could not be nicer and from whom I REALLY want to buy something as I enjoy speaking to them and hanging out with them and love Patek's history, branding etc., but there just isn't anything other than those I mention above that I would want! And that is odd for a brand like PP..... that's all.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

I hear you. People are never going to be happy! Make too many, prices plummet in secondary and make too few and people complain! As a humble collector, commenting on or suggesting what PP should do is silly and I have to assume that Thierry believes this is the most lucrative and best way to manage the company.

All I can say is that as a collector, I vote with my purchases and I have not felt compelled to acquire a current production Patek (aside from a very short list of 5711s and other nautili and 5131s) after I sold my 5205. I love stopping by my local AD, who could not be nicer and from whom I REALLY want to buy something as I enjoy speaking to them and hanging out with them and love Patek's history, branding etc., but there just isn't anything other than those I mention above that I would want! And that is odd for a brand like PP..... that's all.

Ok, a question for you. Going back to what was available from Patek say 15 years ago, were there a lot of Pateks you would have bought? For me the current collection has many more watches I would want than what was available then.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by RussW

Ok, a question for you. Going back to what was available from Patek say 15 years ago, were there a lot of Pateks you would have bought? For me the current collection has many more watches I would want than what was available then.

Zilch for me...generally too small and a bit grandfatherly

[KarlS]

@thomas many thanks. Will sniff around some USA dealers a bit as well. Some TRF members PM me with some leads!

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by RussW

Ok, a question for you. Going back to what was available from Patek say 15 years ago, were there a lot of Pateks you would have bought? For me the current collection has many more watches I would want than what was available then.

God... tough questions... too tough for a Friday! I don't know honestly but if one were to assume that all Pateks ever made were available for purchase, I would gravitate towards the 5970, 3940, 5070, 5131, 2526 and Nautilus (3700, etc.). Not a fan of the 5004 for instance although I respect it for what it is. To be very honest I've been through a lot of watches in almost 10 years in the hobby and I have certainly gravitated towards more classic watches no doubt in the last few years.

Originally Posted by KarlS

Zilch for me...generally too small and a bit grandfatherly

too funny my friend! you know I enjoy your pictures here and on IG a lot!

[texex91]

Originally Posted by KarlS

@thomas many thanks. Will sniff around dome USA dealers a bit as well.

Good luck...let us know how it goes

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by RussW

Ok, a question for you. Going back to what was available from Patek say 15 years ago, were there a lot of Pateks you would have bought? For me the current collection has many more watches I would want than what was available then.

I think this is an intelligent question.

Nautilus line of the past for sure. I prefer the smaller size and very much prefer the old J metals to the modern R (which I think is a little girly!).

5070 is big. If you can live with that it has a better balanced dial than the 5170 but an inferior movement.. It's close. It wins based on compartive rarity.

3970 + 5970 - also for sure probably trump the 5270 which, especially in G format, TS has decimated with dial variations. the first 5270G was perfect. Why change it?

5004 - my grail and > 5204. Probably the height of the watchmakers art trying to get that base Lemania to work as a rattrapante

3940 > 5140 > 5327- also a beautiful PC and pure PP - a more balanced PC than anything they've made since this new 5320.

5127 Calatrava is smaller than 5227 Calatrava so gets the nod for me.

Of the new ones, I like the 5170, the 5146, 5370, and 5205, 5296 Calatrava, but I'm still indecisive..

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Many might know I am a huge fan of the 5327 blue dial and for various reasons being holding back (Baselworld etc). However every dealer I go to seems to have one in the window. Isn't it selling??

Then I noticed when looking for 5205R my AD only received them in October every year! Wierd!! No ways I was going to wait

Then we have had a surge in 5131R's...increasing production? Cleaning out the cupboard??

Here is my theory following chats with various AD's and Salons and my interpretation.

PP is a profitable business and Swiss. Known for efficiencies and precision...it's obvious they schedule production runs. We know the cases are made in batches as are dials so it makes sense that in a factory of 2000 watchmakers they know down to the date and hour which assembly line will be doing which assemblies and how many and for how long. It's therefore feasible that following a run of Worldtime or 5327 these are shipped globally. You will therefore see a glut for a period of time until demand absorbs the supply. So perhaps it's not a case of over production or no demand but rather timing in a production cycle!

Hopefully we will all sleep easier after that epiphany

The world wide watch market is in decline. I saw the whole PP lineup, save for minute repeaters in NYC at the various stores. Two years ago you would never see that. Its just not cool to wear a watch anymore. Next time you are out survey how many folks are no longer wearing watches. Cellphones are the new timekeepers. People are on them 24/7 so they need a watch. No way.
Then look at all the wearable devices out there.

[codecow]

Karl the 5237 blue dial is an awesome piece, I have yet to see one in San Francisco however there are plenty of other older perpetuals around. I have seen a 5270 here, but it wasn't on display it was in the safe. I think a lot depends on the local market you're in.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The world wide watch market is in decline. I saw the whole PP lineup, save for minute repeaters in NYC at the various stores. Two years ago you would never see that. Its just not cool to wear a watch anymore. Next time you are out survey how many folks are no longer wearing watches. Cellphones are the new timekeepers. People are on them 24/7 so they need a watch. No way.
Then look at all the wearable devices out there.

Ah ok....thanks....over supply then....and no demand...

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by codecow

Karl the 5237 blue dial is an awesome piece, I have yet to see one in San Francisco however there are plenty of other older perpetuals around. I have seen a 5270 here, but it wasn't on display it was in the safe. I think a lot depends on the local market you're in.

Hi Louis
Yeah quite a lot of 5270 around. Particularly in London. Not a huge fan of a chrono....I am also not a purist so find a manual wind more of a pain than to enjoy the movement but aesthetically a beautiful watch. The 5327 blue obviously you can't read but that's why you have Siri!

[RussW]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

God... tough questions... too tough for a Friday! I don't know honestly but if one were to assume that all Pateks ever made were available for purchase, I would gravitate towards the 5970, 3940, 5070, 5131, 2526 and Nautilus (3700, etc.). Not a fan of the 5004 for instance although I respect it for what it is. To be very honest I've been through a lot of watches in almost 10 years in the hobby and I have certainly gravitated towards more classic watches no doubt in the last few years.

Ha ha, not meaning to spoil your Friday! Sounds like you do prefer older Pateks (apart from 5131). I prefer more modern Pateks in general, so 5270>5970, 5204>5004, 5230>5110. There are exceptions though, such as 5070>5170.

And some of my favourite watches in the current collection don't even have an older model to compare with. I'm talking 5370, 5990, 5524, 5930 amongst others. So, while I understand complaints of over supply, QC and servicing issues, in terms of the actual watches I very much prefer modern Pateks.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The world wide watch market is in decline. I saw the whole PP lineup, save for minute repeaters in NYC at the various stores. Two years ago you would never see that. Its just not cool to wear a watch anymore. Next time you are out survey how many folks are no longer wearing watches. Cellphones are the new timekeepers. People are on them 24/7 so they need a watch. No way.
Then look at all the wearable devices out there.

lol

what are you doing on a wrist watch forum?

[texex91]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

lol

what are you doing on a wrist watch forum?

Apple Employee