UK energy prices and Rolex demand...

[Xerxes77]

I don’t think if we have problems to pay our bills we want Rolex.
But like a TRF say I think this year we will not see but from next year that bills will affect many people and maybe the waiting list will reduce considerably. Also we need to not forget if price on grey market will come dawn maybe another % from buyers from the waiting list will disappear. Because let’s say the truth on that list are many buyers who want to earn some easy money.
Of course this come down on price will not be from day to next day. Price will come back slowly like they are growing up.
I don’t see this watches craziness keep more then one year from now but I’m not Nostradamus.
We will see but for what I observed this days on many country the recession will come and many of us will be affected.
Truly speaking let’s be honest and look back, a Daytona was selling in 2018-2019 with few thousand more then MRSP, same with Patek or AP. And now on grey market they ask double or triple MRSP price. I think it’s too much.
Also I read some articles where they talk about Organized Crime who use watches to clean money. If financial control will start to verify watch market we don’t know what they will found.
Speaking one day with a friend who are watches lover too and he have a theory who I fiund interesting. His words are”how can a drugs seller to pass the border with a million? They cannot do it. But with a Richard Mille or a Patek on hands and other watch on baggage it’s very easy”.
Just my opinion…

[waterking]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

26 energy companies have gone bust in the UK since August 2021, due to increases in the wholesale price of energy, and customers on fixed term contracts/legal reasons why they cannot pass on price rises..

Energy cost increases affect businesses and the economy as a whole. Their costs go up which they need to pass onto customers to maintain profits. But customers have less income, not more, because their energy costs have increased. And so on and on...nevermind the tax increases on the way, and all the other bad stuff coming down the line.

Geez. Sounds like you are screwed, however, good news is that your local Rolex AD will have plenty of watches for you to purchase so you can tell the time while the island goes to hell-in a-hand basket.

[rolexpure]

You guys pay $22k a year in energy?

What kind of house you live in there and what kind of rubbish system is the UK running? That is unsustainable amount of money to pay for power. Imagine all the ppl on average or below average incomes. UK government need to fix that ASAP>

I'm currently in a massive house, 4 ppl and use aircon and heating all the time. Max will be about $7k at per MAX.

[jlovda]

Originally Posted by Shadow Play

By way of clarification for any non UK posters here.

The average annual gas and electricity bill in the UK is said to be £1,250. Come April the price cap is expected to raise the average bill to £2,000 ish. Financial Times today leading with a report that come October it will be raised again to £2,400 ish. That is a big chunk out of the average consumer’s disposable income. Money that would probably otherwise be spent in shops, cafes, leisure activity etc.

Thank you! One other question. What is AGA heating?

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

I think we’d be surprised how easily folks can get access to money if they have an good enough opportunity to multiply it, but I see what you mean.

It is easy, or at least it is if you are willing to take the risk. It's bound to happen to an extent, although I think it's a very small extent. The number of ways a would be entrepreneur can get potentially burned if they resort to high interest short term credit are all too easy to see. If they can flip it in a day, then fair enough. But it's still risky.

It's understandable that some who desperately want a grail Rolex and can't get one might think this practice is rife. I don't think any of us can get our heads around just how high demand actually is.

[SocialMediaUser]

Originally Posted by jlovda

Thank you! One other question. What is AGA heating?

Google AGA stove and you will see.

[gerry100]

rising energy prices will dent disposable income but will only effect those on the margins of this game

[jlovda]

Originally Posted by SocialMediaUser

Google AGA stove and you will see.

Thank you. I should have searched. In Wikipedia this caught my eye....

"This would indicate that the smallest traditional two-oven gas AGA providing simple cooking functions (i.e. no water heating or central heating) consumes thirty-eight times as much as a standard gas oven and hob, almost as much gas in a week as a standard gas oven and hob in nine months."

They are probably outlawed in the US.

[SocialMediaUser]

Originally Posted by jlovda

Thank you. I should have searched. In Wikipedia this caught my eye....

"This would indicate that the smallest traditional two-oven gas AGA providing simple cooking functions (i.e. no water heating or central heating) consumes thirty-eight times as much as a standard gas oven and hob, almost as much gas in a week as a standard gas oven and hob in nine months."

Yup
It looks cool and has an eon of high status but is about as energy efficient as a V16 Cadillac from the 30's compared with a Toyota Prius of today

You do not cook on an AGA nor do you own one unless you have money. If you attempt to heat your home with it today youre a purist to the core and have more money then you know what to do with.

This whole thread is a troll-thread but it takes someone familiar with what OP is talking about to understand it from the getgo.

[teck21]

I’m not sure why so many think the recent MSRP rises and inflation overall has no effect at all on Rolex demand.

Sure a lot of Rolex buyers / wannabe buyers have absolutely no problem absorbing these price rises, but this is a very broad group that comprises a segment that would absolutely find these price rises problematic enough to put them off a Rolex purchase.

Whether the impact is large enough to actually move the needle in terms of AD demand, or grey prices is uncertain, but what this definitely does is chip away at the willingness and ability to purchase a Rolex for some people.

And before anyone comes up with teh tired verblen goods line, absolutely nobody has become more interested in buying a sub simply because it now costs 10% more.

The desirability of verblen good is not just about price, or every verblen good producer would simply increase prices to the moon.

As someone has said, there’s definitely more people now who will get the call, and decide to pass.


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[Soultime]

Originally Posted by winst

Based on how high your bills are currently some of these measures would pay for themselves probably within 5-7 years. Good luck and it was a pleasure to be able to advise you William / Your Majesty - HRH - I look forward to seeing the scaffolding being erected around Kensington Palace over the coming months! PS - you did really well with Catherine - very easy on the eye. If this information has been of any use a future Knighthood would be greatly appreciated. All the best Sire!

I was wondering who it might be too....

Someone who can get the house really hot, but it's not a problem as they don't sweat.

And have an AGA instead of a Pizza oven, meaning trips out to have pizza?

[Macnavara]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Not being funny,what are you heating,The Houses of Parliament or Windsor Castle !

I was just about to ask the same question

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Soultime

Someone who can get the house really hot, but it's not a problem as they don't sweat.

That would be if the subject matter wasn't so sick.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by teck21

I’m not sure why so many think the recent MSRP rises and inflation overall has no effect at all on Rolex demand.

Sure a lot of Rolex buyers / wannabe buyers have absolutely no problem absorbing these price rises, but this is a very broad group that comprises a segment that would absolutely find these price rises problematic enough to put them off a Rolex purchase.

Whether the impact is large enough to actually move the needle in terms of AD demand, or grey prices is uncertain, but what this definitely does is chip away at the willingness and ability to purchase a Rolex for some people.

And before anyone comes up with teh tired verblen goods line, absolutely nobody has become more interested in buying a sub simply because it now costs 10% more.

The desirability of verblen good is not just about price, or every verblen good producer would simply increase prices to the moon.

As someone has said, there’s definitely more people now who will get the call, and decide to pass.


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Yep, but I think there’s a misplaced belief from many on TRF that every buyer has limitless money and will never be affected.

Whilst this will be the case for some, I still personally think that the “average” buyer is more likely from the middle classes with bills to pay, mortgaged houses, and financed cars.

I’ve got nothing to back that up with, but we’re not talking Patek complications here. I’m the £5-8k range Rolex is the king of the hill and is still aspirational / somewhat affordable luxury.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by SocialMediaUser

This is one strange thread,or I must be missing something?

OP lives in an 8bedroom house and will be spending USD 22K on heat/power.
He think about changing his cooktop to the tune of USD 7K plus...but the dog likes to lay infront of the old one...
He also has two electric cars.

All of the above might reduce his interest in a new Rolex watch.

Does that sum it up pretty good?

Ok so that's not quite right.

Yes, it's an 8 bed house, in Kent not London - that's the countryside. I just say London sometimes as it's the closest big place that is globally known. It is a large early 1900s house. Not badly insulated but over 5000 sq ft, so a big space to heat. I would say it's fairly typical round here where there are a lot of large houses. This house in London would be maybe 10-20 times the price.

We were on a fixed rate energy deal paying £5k a year - the QUOTE for a new fixed rate is £16k. But we won't do that as we can go variable for less - say £7.5k a year rising to £10k per year in April (due to UK price cap). A lot of the bill is due to an inefficient gas AGA that we liike, but we should probably get rid of for the good of the planet. We did't put it in, it was here when we bought the house. A decent new cooker with installatoin etc. would be around £7K here. We can't put in some cheap crappy one as it would devalue the house and getting the AGA out will be expensive.

I hope that explains the energy bills. My POINT was that I was shocked at how much energy had increased whilst I was on a fixed rate .... which I understand is likely to push inflation to 7% in the UK.

I never said I cannot afford it.

I was simply thinking .. hmmm .. this might be a tipping point for some waiting for a Rolex in the UK.

To correct the errors - someone on this thread took what I said was a two year increase of £22K (if we took the new fixed deal) and mistakenly said that as 1 year's bill, which is incorrect.

Yes we have two elelectic cars, there're pretty damn awesome and I thoroughly recommmend them - we don't have solar so yes they charge from the UK grid.

As I say, without being a d^ck about it, I can perfectly afford the the energy bill, I never said I couldn't. It won't in any way impact on my ability to purcahse a Rolex.

It was more an observation about the UK and what is around the corner, i.e. some big cost increases. Supposedly 50% of the UK won't be able to afford the energy price increases coming in April. But those 50% are clearly NOT the ones buying Rolexes.

I do think there will be some middle earners however that will rethink that Rolex purchase though, what I don't know is how many are on the "waitlists".

Hope that clarifies.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

How would increased cost of living get anyone not to purchase something they can flip for profit? If anything, it may accentuate the demand by adding more folks who try to make ends meet that way.

Because someone has to buy the flipped watches. But of course they could just go abroad.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by winst

There was me worried about going up from £105 a month to £150! In all seriousness though I suggest you get an energy consultant in. I used to sell Aga’s at a kitchen showroom I worked at as a student - sounds like you have an Aga Rayburn that heats up your hot water cylinder.

One possible course of action is to get a new efficient condensing gas system boiler with an unvented cylinder and then if you do a search online there are several firms now that will convert your Aga to electric taking away the cylinder part of it whilst keeping the charm of the Aga and slashing the running costs with just using electric when you need it. I used to love working in the showroom and being by the Aga in the winter but it used to get unbearable in the summer.

As for solar panels, I was fortunate and put our PV ones on in 2011 just before the highest feed in tariff ended - cost me £8k and we get back about £1500 a year currently and about £350 a year of electric savings now - got to be one of the best investments I ever made as we have 14 years of feed in tariff left. For yourself though, I wouldn’t be convinced - the feed in tariff you get now is abysmal. Sort out your heating system and the Aga, look at your windows and doors if you haven’t replaced them for double / triple glazing already and look at insulation measures as well.

Based on how high your bills are currently some of these measures would pay for themselves probably within 5-7 years. Good luck and it was a pleasure to be able to advise you William / Your Majesty - HRH - I look forward to seeing the scaffolding being erected around Kensington Palace over the coming months! PS - you did really well with Catherine - very easy on the eye. If this information has been of any use a future Knighthood would be greatly appreciated. All the best Sire!

Haha, lol. I wish I was Will (actually no I don't!)

Yes, many thanks for the tips, you're spot on re: the house heating and I was aware of a lot of what you said. I was also thinking of getting someone in to asses the house in total as there are so many options; heat pumps, condensing boilers, extra insulation etc. but to be clear we're going to just got variable rate as no fixed rate is below the energy cap.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by SocialMediaUser

This whole thread is a troll-thread but it takes someone familiar with what OP is talking about to understand it from the getgo.

I'm not a troll, yes AGAs I do think are status symbols (somewhat ironic on a Rolex forum), but not one we bought, it came with the house. In retrospect I should have just skipped on all my personal circumstances as they are not typical; I was just trying to provide an example. That said, it is true that a lot of my friends and family are getting shocks with their new x3 energy bills so it IS a UK wide issue and it is a big one and I was just thinking out loud how will that affect Rolex demand (or maybe it won't).

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by ganiccus

I mean how cold does London can get to justify using so much energy to heat his home?

What makes you think he lives in London?

[CPRWATCH]

Originally Posted by Shadow Play

In the UK the average house is very small, with woodchip on the wall........

It’s made of PULP

[joeboy]

I worked in the oil&gas industry for 30 years. Offshore worldwide. Energy has been a major influence in my life. 2016 I had an 'aha' moment as SSE put our per kWh unit up massively. Since then we has installed 9kW of PV and 14.4kWh of home battery storage. We also have an EV with another being delivered next month. For anyone who doesn't fancy ongoing long term price hikes, have a look at Ripple energy and WT2. I am in WT1 and it is going live 1st week March.

I like my Rolex(s) and could see there being more in the market as people pass on what they thought they could afford.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

I still personally think that the “average” buyer is more likely from the middle classes with bills to pay, mortgaged houses, and financed cars.

That's my guess also and kinda the point behind the thread.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by Uggi

What makes you think he lives in London?

I think I might have put it in my profile on here - I tend to default to "near London" for anyone outside of the UK.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by joeboy

I worked in the oil&gas industry for 30 years. Offshore worldwide. Energy has been a major influence in my life. 2016 I had an 'aha' moment as SSE put our per kWh unit up massively. Since then we has installed 9kW of PV and 14.4kWh of home battery storage. We also have an EV with another being delivered next month. For anyone who doesn't fancy ongoing long term price hikes, have a look at Ripple energy and WT2. I am in WT1 and it is going live 1st week March.

I like my Rolex(s) and could see there being more in the market as people pass on what they thought they could afford.

Love the watch! Will check out Ripple.

[SocialMediaUser]

Originally Posted by Lewi777

I'm not a troll, yes AGAs I do think are status symbols (somewhat ironic on a Rolex forum), but not one we bought, it came with the house. In retrospect I should have just skipped on all my personal circumstances as they are not typical; I was just trying to provide an example. That said, it is true that a lot of my friends and family are getting shocks with their new x3 energy bills so it IS a UK wide issue and it is a big one and I was just thinking out loud how will that affect Rolex demand (or maybe it won't).

Yup. Yall shocked over an uptick in energy prices....
Still...youre in your 8br house thats over 5000sqft. Built 100yrs ago or so. Running your AGA and enjoying your electric cars.

Nowhere you say youll move,downsize,sell a car or two and ride your bike or take public transportation. Nah. Beause you still can afford it,and whats another 750quid/month anyway when your brokerage account is quadrupeling that sum each month?

Just like when petrol goes from one quid to a quid fifty. Oh the horror.
Fill er up mate...

And the few potential Rolex buyers that no longer cannot afford to buy one are replaced with five new guys that are making more money then ever before because of the above....

[TswaneNguni]

Plenty money in the world for the annual Rolex manufacture ,no matter what the electricity bill ...anywhere.

[Tricolore66]

The margins are where a lot of the growth in demand has come from in the last few years. If these watches lost 20% of their MSRP when you walked out of the store, like in the good old days, those on the margin would be out of the game.

I had no idea that energy costs were that high in the UK. That’s literally 10x what I pay in the states.

Originally Posted by gerry100

rising energy prices will dent disposables income but will only effect those on the margins of this game

[SocialMediaUser]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

The margins are where a lot of the growth in demand has come from in the last few years. If these watches lost 20% of their MSRP when you walked out of the store, like in the good old days, those on the margin would be out of the game.

I had no idea that energy costs were that high in the UK. That’s literally 10x what I pay in the states.

And you live in a 100yr old 5000sqft house you heat with your gas cooktop,plus two electric cars you charge at home?

Got to compare apples to apples.

But otherwise I agree with you. Who says no to free money?

[UK_]

Clearly there are a lot of Americans who now think we lay £22k a year for energy, which is nonsense! My 5 bed modern detached is about £1,600 per year in gas and electricity.

OP - where are you getting these crazy numbers from? Even the kWHs you quote won’t cost that much, a 2 year fix for that MASSIVE useage is about £10k per year without looking hard, but why would you fix right now?

As to the question - I don’t think it will impact demand too much, only a full blown recession will, and even then the sheer size of stimulus that has been pumped in has changed the rules.




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[R.bartlett]

Originally Posted by Lewi777

Haha, lol. I wish I was Will (actually no I don't!)

Yes, many thanks for the tips, you're spot on re: the house heating and I was aware of a lot of what you said. I was also thinking of getting someone in to asses the house in total as there are so many options; heat pumps, condensing boilers, extra insulation etc. but to be clear we're going to just got variable rate as no fixed rate is below the energy cap.

there's no way your house in its present setup is heatpump ready. if you think your AGA is inefficient try putting in some of those bad boys !
insulation insulation insulation !
you should consider this irrespective of current or proposed energy prices or before any changes. UK housing stock is generally poorly made and badly insulated. I would invest in a Flir IR app for your phone and wander around outside and see where your heat is escaping. or get a energy guy in to do a survey..

heatpumps are massively overhyped and generally under perform. even after insulation you're looking at 30k+ to install something big enough to cope with your energy demand. ROI is not achievable on most installations when whole life cost is factored in
I'd at least remove the hot water side of the AGA by adding a gas boiler as that would reduce the gas bill by 50% minimum.

you also alluded to the UK being somehow unique in its current position regarding energy . it's not. I'm in Spain and the government here has stepped in to try to cap rising prices as electric has more than doubled in the last 6 months.

as regards your general point here in Tenerife during the crisis there were a lot of Rolexes in the AD window even the odd SS one. however since the return of the tourists we are now the same as every AD, empty shelves. but I do believe the world is in for a monetary shock and luxury goods could well be hit.
interestingly Rolex is more of an asperational luxury good rather than a genuine high end luxury good and it's quite possible that's exactly the area likely to be hit hardest in an economic downturn or crash..
high end real luxury goods don't suffer quite so much as the rich ride out recessions easier... IMHO

oh and I really do recommend moving out of the UK. I always intended to move to the sun as retirement approached and it's the best thing I ever did.