Talking Stocks 2.0

[GB-man]

I agree a rate cut in preparation for worsening CV outbreak is highly questionable. They hardly have any ammo at all let alone free bullets to be shooting off in preparation.

[beshannon]

Down 950 at this point.

Too late to sell into this, if the previous low does not hold then 2940 is first then 2850 on the S&P.

Rebuilding my shopping list for lower lows after selling into the flash rally this morning.

[Bryant Park]

GB-Man "Tell us tomorrows play if you want to impress anyone."

Like this 8:30 post pre 10:00 Fed move, 2:00 Barron's article and the markets close?

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I think that over near and midterm there is a lot more potential negative headline risk then positive. I think valuations had fully built in every optimistic assumption and the markets are now held hostage to emotion. All considered I have a heavy negative bias. Particularly towards bank names given the likelihood central banks will intervene to keep rates low squeezing margins.

Against that backdrop great time to cherry pick names that get oversold that you want to own as long term core holdings. Given that in high vol periods such as this names all tend to trade in tandem based on swings use the moves to upgrade portfolio but simultaneously selling names you are skeptical of and buying long term holds. In that way you are largely market neutral but credit specific improved.

S&P down 2.81%
Dow down 2.94%
Bank America down 5.58%
Wells Fargo down 4.16%

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed...of2&yptr=yahoo

Selling banks and buying index as suggested would have captured 2.5%ish return assuming you didn't employ a leveraged technique.

[superdog]

The new Oracle.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I agree a rate cut in preparation for worsening CV outbreak is highly questionable. They hardly have any ammo at all let alone free bullets to be shooting off in preparation.

Yep, wasted those bullets IMO, now what?

[Bearxj86]

I bought a little of each of the airlines....muahahahhahahaahhahaahah. Victory!!!!...or Death!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

GB-Man "Tell us tomorrows play if you want to impress anyone."

Like this 8:30 post pre 10:00 Fed move, 2:00 Barron's article and the markets close?



S&P down 2.81%
Dow down 2.94%
Bank America down 5.58%
Wells Fargo down 4.16%

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed...of2&yptr=yahoo

Selling banks and buying index as suggested would have captured 2.5%ish return assuming you didn't employ a leveraged technique.

Nice call

Originally Posted by brandrea

Yep, wasted those bullets IMO, now what?

My guess do it again

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by superdog

But tons of people think they can game the system. Tons of people go broke trying. If I can eek out a meager 5-6 points consistently over the years, I will be very happy.

Seth- Oracle sarcastic comment aside, you realize the simple trade I suggested returned a positive 2.5% return versus down 2.9% if doing nothing and mirroring the DJIA as you suggested is your approach That's a 5.4% swing with minimal market risk.

Given that is your stated annual return achieved in a day perhaps worth considering a more active approach. Thoughtful and engaged investment isn't "gaming" the system.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Seth- Oracle sarcastic comment aside, you realize the simple trade I suggested returned a positive 2.5% return versus down 2.9% if doing nothing and mirroring the DJIA as you suggested is your approach That's a 5.4% swing with minimal market risk.

Given that is your stated annual return achieved in a day perhaps worth considering a more active approach. Thoughtful and engaged investment isn't "gaming" the system.

Well, you sure told me.

FWIW, making the right call and having a good day is far different than a long term investment return.

But I know enough to know what I don’t know. So I won’t try and have a debate about it with you. Personally, I’m just looking to sleep at night.

I thought my Oracle comment was funny.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by superdog

I thought my Oracle comment was funny.

I actually did as well Have a good nights sleep.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I actually did as well Have a good nights sleep.

You know what’s funnier?

I sleep terribly. I’ll be up at 4:00 for certain.

Maybe I need a new strategy...

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I bought a little of each of the airlines....muahahahhahahaahhahaahah. Victory!!!!...or Death!

But I do think that they will bounce up big time when the scare is over.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

But I do think that they will bounce up big time when the scare is over.

Airlines have some pretty big potential downside from here if the virus starts to spread broadly in the US (which the CDC says it eventually probably will). Once we hit that tipping point, few people will want to breathe a bunch of strangers' air inside an airplane. Air travel could plummet for a while after that.

[77T]

Forbes published some interesting charts from past pandemics, and how marketplace reacted.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepat.../#62207b79448d

Only for your enjoyment - I don’t necessarily endorse the picks you’ll see at the end of the article.

Past results are not a guarantee of future.... (you know the rest).


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[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by 77T

Forbes published some interesting charts from past pandemics, and how marketplace reacted.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepat.../#62207b79448d

Only for your enjoyment - I don’t necessarily endorse the picks you’ll see at the end of the article.

Past results are not a guarantee of future.... (you know the rest).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Interesting article, thanks for posting.

I’ve got a few short positions through S&P puts but I’m not touching any of my long-term IRAs, etc. I’ll keep buying for the long term on the declines as I’m very cash heavy right now.

[Gaijin]

I am a small fish in this pond but I just moved my 403B account which is all in a target 2025 fund to a 2030 fund. Thus weighting a little heavier in equities. I think these drops are opportunities.

May you all thrive.

[beshannon]

Some good overall info this morning here

https://www.investors.com/market-tre...urvival-guide/

Also some analysis here

https://www.schwab.com/resource-cent...tors-should-do

For those who like Cramer

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/jim-...-cut-buys.html

I am watching to see if the open holds, if so I will be a seller

If not, I will be averaging down on a few positions and looking at my shopping list

[locutus49]

I'm heavily in individual dividend stocks and have been sitting on the sidelines. Will buy some select stocks pretty soon when their valuation is good. I like minimum of 6% yield.

[healer]

Beshannon good info. I’m already all in but I’m still planning to add more bec I’m almost even money for the stocks that lost value last week. Today I’m thinking I’ll be ahead again;)

[Pantheon]

Thank you beshannon for the links. I had already shifted to high dividend and oversold stocks but those information gives me a little reassurance.

Also for those that don't know this yet, the Chinese government is heavily subsidizing air travel. They're trying to get people moving about again which is a good sign. Some domestic flights in China is as low as $4

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I bought a little of each of the airlines....muahahahhahahaahhahaahah. Victory!!!!...or Death!

I'm there with you brother. I also bought a few dare I say, cruise line stocks! carnival has a 6% dividend yield

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm heavily in individual dividend stocks and have been sitting on the sidelines. Will buy some select stocks pretty soon when their valuation is good. I like minimum of 6% yield.

Agreed, I too am seeking yield but this can be a minefield. The Fed bomb yesterday did not help, many yields are not safe even in some blue chip companies

Originally Posted by healer

Beshannon good info. I’m already all in but I’m still planning to add more bec I’m almost even money for the stocks that lost value last week. Today I’m thinking I’ll be ahead again;)

Good luck, my time frame is years not days

Originally Posted by Pantheon

Thank you beshannon for the links. I had already shifted to high dividend and oversold stocks but those information gives me a little reassurance.

I believe this will sort itself out, it is just frustrating watching massive over reactions on both sides and trying to make good decisions, some oversold names I have averaged down into and feel good about that but we have not bottomed yet (IMHO)

[austinp]

Another good day to Straddle? Or is that play better left to the pros?

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[SMD]

Originally Posted by austinp

Another good day to Straddle? Or is that play better left to the pros?

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The advice you are getting is dangerous to your wealth. A straddle is not a daily strategy, its a very basic option strategy that every joker who has taken an intro corp fin class learns. Stay out of options unless you are hedging and know what you are doing.

Now if you really want to make money - cattle futures!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Another good day to Straddle? Or is that play better left to the pros?

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Ask yourself if you understand this:

A straddle is a neutral options strategy that involves simultaneously buying both a put option and a call option for the underlying security with the same strike price and the same expiration date.

A trader will profit from a long straddle when the price of the security rises or falls from the strike price by an amount more than the total cost of the premium paid. Profit potential is virtually unlimited, so long as the price of the underlying security moves very sharply.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/straddle.asp

Next do you have a margin account and an options agreement signed with your broker?

If you are expecting this massive volatility to continue then this might be a good strategy. That also depends on your goals for the allocated capital.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by SMD

The advice you are getting is dangerous to your wealth. A straddle is not a daily strategy, its a very basic option strategy that every joker who has taken an intro corp fin class learns. Stay out of options unless you are hedging and know what you are doing.

Agreed and certainly not the point of this thread. Wont be long before this one gets locked as well

[CactusSpine]

Would any of y’all be able to point a beginner in the right direction on what resources one could research to learn how to build a simple long term portfolio?

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by SMD

The advice you are getting is dangerous to your wealth. A straddle is not a daily strategy, its a very basic option strategy that every joker who has taken an intro corp fin class learns. Stay out of options unless you are hedging and know what you are doing.

Agreed. If you have to ask what it is, its probably best to avoid it unless you have professional help and guidance

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by CactusSpine

Would any of y’all be able to point a beginner in the right direction on what resources one could research to learn how to build a simple long term portfolio?

Hard to give much guidance without knowing goals, assets and what your "long-term" horizon is.

You could start here

https://www.investopedia.com/warren-...-picks-4773315

[austinp]

Originally Posted by SMD

The advice you are getting is dangerous to your wealth. A straddle is not a daily strategy, its a very basic option strategy that every joker who has taken an intro corp fin class learns. Stay out of options unless you are hedging and know what you are doing.

Now if you really want to make money - cattle futures!

Wasn't planning on doing it but I like when those that are in the profession drop some knowledge. Love this thread. I'm just a ham and egger.

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