When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

No. Look at this black dial that’s been sitting at Nashville watch. Even more desirable than the white.https://nashvillewatch.com/product/a...-box-papers-2/

Issue is that what you are quoting as market prices aren’t moving. What is the true market clearing price is the rate at which buyer and seller are willing to transact. Sure, Moda skews more towards wholesale but frankly, it’s becoming more of a retail channel and people are more privy to it. Competitive dealers will price Within 10% of what is transacting at Moda.

Chase is buying at Moda prices and has to mark up to sell. His prices are pretty good

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Chase is buying at Moda prices and has to mark up to sell. His prices are pretty good

Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices I’ve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isn’t moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices I’ve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isn’t moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is

It is certainly interesting what is going on. It does seem like things are very slow, however Nashville keeps updating his sold section every day with several watches.

And European Watch has new sold and pending pieces every day too. Their turn around on Patek is incredible, even at their high prices

[RTG]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

It is certainly interesting what is going on. It does seem like things are very slow, however Nashville keeps updating his sold section every day with several watches.

And European Watch has new sold and pending pieces every day too. Their turn around on Patek is incredible, even at their high prices

You know, sold listings can be manipulated to encourage potential buyers. It’s common in all industries, even in mine, and it’s something I may have done yesterday.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices I’ve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isn’t moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is

Easy to work out true values, and where values are heading.

Simply ring round all the Greys and ask what they will offer for your watches, and repeat monthly.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Easy to work out true values, and where values are heading.

Simply ring round all the Greys and ask what they will offer for your watches, and repeat monthly.

Exactly. AP on particular is taking a bath.

[kopi-c]

Secondary market will bottom out when people stop buying from them.
I personally don't care about the resale price as I am not going to flip the watches I purchase from the AD/boutique.

[ts3]

At the earliest the secondary market will (have) bottom(ed) out when mint 15202ST go below their last retail.

[ErichKeane]

Originally Posted by RTG

You know, sold listings can be manipulated to encourage potential buyers. It’s common in all industries, even in mine, and it’s something I may have done yesterday.

Yeah, there is a seller here on TRF that seemingly 'sells' an identical watch for their asking price RIGHT before listing a watch! And it is never one that has been listed here a while, they just list a new 'sold' listing right next to it.

[TunaTuna]

So if I'm reading you all correctly...

You think the decline will be over when we are back to 2014 where you could walk in and get a Sub or Royal Oak at the AD no problem, and the smart people were getting discounts or buying pre owned at 30% off?

[RTG]

My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.

[messikens]

It will be further falling over the next 6 months I predict

1. Interest (bonds etc) is actually attractive for a change, so the opportunity cost is higher than free money with no yield outside of uncertain stock markets
2. Buyers craze has waned and now the herd moves on to the "let's wait" mode because they've seen prices fall already - never underestimate momentum
3. Housing market is frozen - prices are still high but new mortgages are super expensive
4. More attractive "other ventures" (i.e. travel is open, international / air travel is back to normal)
5. Crypto is making a comeback but not at the same crazy levels as before
6. Manufacturers got super greedy with prices over the past 3-4years. A RO at $18k is interesting, a RO at $27k 4 years later is a big much (same with Patek, Rolex etc)... not even discussing the more interesting pieces, PM pieces etc
7. AD shenanigans have been a turn-off to say the least. Loyalty swings both ways - after treating your existing customers like garbage, who is knocking down the door to buy the 34mm TT datejusts now?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by RTG

My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.

Agree. Reversion to the historical mean/trendline, excluding COVID craziness

[INC]

The SS Daytona prices are raising. Slowly, but surely.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by RTG

My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.

I am in the back to 2018 camp as well, not early 2021 but also not 2014.

Some of the formerly hottest watches such as 15202 or 5711 have a long way to go. My guess is another 30-50% after having already dropped 50% from the 2022 peak. I don't expect this to play out in the next 6 months but rather a slow bleeding for another 1.5 years minimum and possibly longer.

[TunaTuna]

Good points guys.

I think most of the decline has happened already, but I don't think we will see prices increase for a while

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ts3

I am in the back to 2018 camp as well, not early 2021 but also not 2014.

Some of the formerly hottest watches such as 15202 or 5711 have a long way to go. My guess is another 30-50% after having already dropped 50% from the 2022 peak. I don't expect this to play out in the next 6 months but rather a slow bleeding for another 1.5 years minimum and possibly longer.

I think you’re right about 2018. But I also think the bleeding will be faster. Once economic fundamentals get stronger, it’ll work against the softening of the market (to a degree). Economic health isn’t a 1:1 correlation to luxury, Veblen good.

I think where prices end up is the easier question. When they will actually stabilize is a bit difficult. But frankly I think we’ll be there by EOY.

[NYG1121]

Market has bottomed. At least for the short term

[johnsonsxusfrt]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

So if I'm reading you all correctly...

You think the decline will be over when we are back to 2014 where you could walk in and get a Sub or Royal Oak at the AD no problem, and the smart people were getting discounts or buying pre owned at 30% off?

Not back to 2014 prices, but back to the 2015-2019 trend line + a bump for inflation, which means prices will still be higher today vs pre-covid.

But I agree we aren't very far from normalization at this point. Most rolex models are trading for about retail, with most precious model and TT pieces at or below retail. The exception remains the daytona, pepsi, sprite etc.

Most 43mm AP Offshores have corrected below retail, and the 42s are pretty much back to 2020 prices. The new ROs are at a reasonable premium nowadays.

Almost all the Patek models (except Nautilus & Aquanaut) are at or well below retail. For example I just looking at the 5205g and it's 15K below retail. Folks with purchase history are getting offered brand new Aquanauts at retail by their ADs without even asking. Nautilus on bracelet is standing strong (but down significantly from ridiculous peak), and will be the last General to fall.

[BillyBob2610]

What do you all think would be the watch to buy if available at your local Rolex AD? Thank you!

[ErichKeane]

Originally Posted by BillyBob2610

What do you all think would be the watch to buy if available at your local Rolex AD? Thank you!

The watch that brings you joy.

[Crown & Shield]

And there is one thread left

[Saintos]

Originally Posted by Crown & Shield

And there is one thread left

Explain

[Saintos]

[Radbloke]

That one's still sitting there, pricing is way too high. Pieces cheaper than that have been getting bumped since February. One went for $26k today, full set minus the card.

[GGGMT]

Watch market bottomed out last Tuesday


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Radbloke]

All the BLROs are currently coming out of the woodwork on MODA as it's clear it's not being discontinued. Lots of auctions and price reductions from the current run-up nonsense. Laughable.

[gates]

I'm a buyer when you can get a 228238 at or below retail

[rushca01]

Full set minus white hang tag 116710 BLNR dated 2020 just sold on Moda for 10,600.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by rushca01

Full set minus white hang tag 116710 BLNR dated 2020 just sold on Moda for 10,600.

You love to see it!