Sports steel allocations to ADs

[socalsean]

I did a rough calculations as follows:

1. Typical AD gets 50 watches per month.
2. About 1/3 are sports models in Sub, GMT, Daytona, AK, Explorers, YM, SD
3. Out of ~17 sports models, ~5 are TT and gold.
4. That leaves about 12 steel sports watches. Maybe ~5 Subs and 1 or less for other models.

[Bazil]

Hope one is mine .. waiting on a special piece ..

[116510lv]

Used to work for Goldsmiths. We used to get about 12 watches a month - 2/3 SS Sports.

The rest were heavy hitter pieces that we had to shift in order to prove to our Rolex rep that we were worthy of having Daytona's etc.

Our rep would micromanage our manager and if he said jump the manager would say how high....

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[Jasb]

Originally Posted by 116510lv

Used to work for Goldsmiths. We used to get about 12 watches a month - 2/3 SS Sports.

The rest were heavy hitter pieces that we had to shift in order to prove to our Rolex rep that we were worthy of having Daytona's etc.

Our rep would micromanage our manager and if he said jump the manager would say how high....

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I like the other guys math better….

[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by 116510lv

Used to work for Goldsmiths. We used to get about 12 watches a month - 2/3 SS Sports.

The rest were heavy hitter pieces that we had to shift in order to prove to our Rolex rep that we were worthy of having Daytona's etc.

Our rep would micromanage our manager and if he said jump the manager would say how high....

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That's all? If Rolex is making over 1,000,000 watches a year, it's crazy for a store to only get 144 watches for the entire year and only a max of 36 steel pieces. That feels like Patek numbers.

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

That's all? If Rolex is making over 1,000,000 watches a year, it's crazy for a store to only get 144 watches for the entire year and only a max of 36 steel pieces. That feels like Patek numbers.

Don’t really believe they don’t get any more than that.

I opened the box my AD (a small familiy owned AD) gets every friday and this what it looks like. There was 10-12 watches. 1 steel daytona, 1 airking, 1 skydweller, 1 day date and the rest ladies watches.

We opened a Patek box there was 6 watches.




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[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by Divingdeep87

Don’t really believe they don’t get any more than that.

I opened the box my AD (a small familiy owned AD) gets every friday and this what it looks like. There was 10-12 watches. 1 steel daytona, 1 airking, 1 skydweller, 1 day date and the rest ladies watches.

We opened a Patek box there was 6 watches.

Are they getting a steel Daytona weekly?

And the numbers you're describing are far higher than what the other poster described. At 10-12 watches per week with 52 weeks a year, that's still 520-624 watches a year for a small family AD.

[996marty]

It would be interesting to get an insight from someone in the know as to how many an allocation would be

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by socalsean

I did a rough calculations as follows:

1. Typical AD gets 50 watches per month.
2. About 1/3 are sports models in Sub, GMT, Daytona, AK, Explorers, YM, SD
3. Out of ~17 sports models, ~5 are TT and gold.
4. That leaves about 12 steel sports watches. Maybe ~5 Subs and 1 or less for other models.

Mind sharing the basis for your ”rough calculation” ?

[ArtNouveau]

In the US there are tiers of dealers with the Rolex only Boutiques at the top of the food chain. Any AD that is still left after the continued closings gets more than a dozen a month.
2019, the year I got my 116500, my AD got at least 30 with equal numbers of the two dial colors. I was told their “floorplan” was 275 watches per month, i.e. that’s what they were expected to sell.
Obviously every dealer doesn’t get that many but from personal experience I believe that a lot more than the stories of “we only got one of those this year.”

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

Are they getting a steel Daytona weekly?

And the numbers you're describing are far higher than what the other poster described. At 10-12 watches per week with 52 weeks a year, that's still 520-624 watches a year for a small family AD.

Nope. I got the first black 12 series and the one in that package was nr 2 and they only got one white since the launch.

Some weeks they get less watches.

They have to have 30 watches in stock at all time or they get a red flag.

They started to get less watches last year, and they contacted Rolex, then the represant from Rolex (not direct from Rolex) told them they have to rebuild the store and now they get more watches again.

[socalsean]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Mind sharing the basis for your ”rough calculation” ?

Rolex makes ~1m watches annually. There are roughly 1400-1500 ADs in the world. Different ADs get different number of allocations however number of watches per dealer comes to about 600.

I don’t know if true or not but several SAs told me about 2/3 are classic models (DJ, Lady DJ, DD, OP, SkyD, 1908, etc) and about 1/3 are sports models.

I made an assumption about 30% of sports models come in TT or Gold. It appears that way more Subs are floating around than other sports models and I estimated 4-5 steel subs (124060, 126610 LN and LV) come out of 50 or so total watches in a month.

[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by Divingdeep87

Nope. I got the first black 12 series and the one in that package was nr 2 and they only got one white since the launch.

Some weeks they get less watches.

They have to have 30 watches in stock at all time or they get a red flag.

They started to get less watches last year, and they contacted Rolex, then the represant from Rolex (not direct from Rolex) told them they have to rebuild the store and now they get more watches again.

How many stainless Daytonas are they getting per year at this store? Is it a lot more black than white?

[Calatrava r]

I doubt any AD gets 50 watches per month. More like 20 for a big AD and down from there. There is a reason why SS sports Rolex sell for a premium used. It is because supply to ADs is very limited and is far outpaced by demand. There was a time when cases were generally full and only when watches were sold Rolex would send more watches, So an AD that did not sell a lot of watches did not have much coming in, just enough to keep the case full and no more. When all the cases emptied, supply could not begin to keep up.

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

How many stainless Daytonas are they getting per year at this store? Is it a lot more black than white?

Didn’t ask actually. They only got 4 BLRO last year and haven’t seen any since. (I was there last time 16 of March)

Green sub and BLNR on jubilee is the one they get the most of the hot models.

[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by Divingdeep87

Didn’t ask actually. They only got 4 BLRO last year and haven’t seen any since. (I was there last time 16 of March)

Green sub and BLNR on jubilee is the one they get the most of the hot models.

Interesting! I was told in June 2022 by an AD in Maui that they get 1 Sub LV a month, which really doesn't seem like a lot to me!

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Divingdeep87

Didn’t ask actually. They only got 4 BLRO last year and haven’t seen any since. (I was there last time 16 of March)

Green sub and BLNR on jubilee is the one they get the most of the hot models.

That’s crazy!

DSW got 4 2024 BLROs just last week.

The flip rate has got to be like 90% on the SS models


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[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

Interesting! I was told in June 2022 by an AD in Maui that they get 1 Sub LV a month, which really doesn't seem like a lot to me!

It all depends on relationship I guess. Waited 3 weeks for the LV and asked for the MK2 when I was there and they said no worries that I will get it the 8 of June.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

Are they getting a steel Daytona weekly?

And the numbers you're describing are far higher than what the other poster described. At 10-12 watches per week with 52 weeks a year, that's still 520-624 watches a year for a small family AD.

There are circa 1800 ADs globally. At 1m watches a year that's an average of 550 watches per AD.

There's no way a small family AD is getting average or more than average allocation is there?

[BETRNSX]

Originally Posted by Devildog

There are circa 1800 ADs globally. At 1m watches a year that's an average of 550 watches per AD.

There's no way a small family AD is getting average or more than average allocation is there?

If that were the case, the. Your chances of getting a watch at a small AD should be much better. They obviously get allocated less and the bigger ADs get more, but also have more customers and longer lists.

[Osmin]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I doubt any AD gets 50 watches per month. More like 20 for a big AD and down from there. There is a reason why SS sports Rolex sell for a premium used. It is because supply to ADs is very limited and is far outpaced by demand. There was a time when cases were generally full and only when watches were sold Rolex would send more watches, So an AD that did not sell a lot of watches did not have much coming in, just enough to keep the case full and no more. When all the cases emptied, supply could not begin to keep up.

Lol. 20 watches! In a week maybe, they sell every day multiple Rolexes.

[value.target]

I was told at my AD in Southern California, they received about 15 watches per week. Most are DateJust, and a few sport watches...

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by socalsean

Rolex makes ~1m watches annually. There are roughly 1400-1500 ADs in the world. Different ADs get different number of allocations however number of watches per dealer comes to about 600.

I don’t know if true or not but several SAs told me about 2/3 are classic models (DJ, Lady DJ, DD, OP, SkyD, 1908, etc) and about 1/3 are sports models.

I made an assumption about 30% of sports models come in TT or Gold. It appears that way more Subs are floating around than other sports models and I estimated 4-5 steel subs (124060, 126610 LN and LV) come out of 50 or so total watches in a month.

Thanks. Makes sense.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I doubt any AD gets 50 watches per month. More like 20 for a big AD and down from there. There is a reason why SS sports Rolex sell for a premium used. It is because supply to ADs is very limited and is far outpaced by demand. There was a time when cases were generally full and only when watches were sold Rolex would send more watches, So an AD that did not sell a lot of watches did not have much coming in, just enough to keep the case full and no more. When all the cases emptied, supply could not begin to keep up.

I am sorry you don’t believe that but the Boutiques in the US get lots more than that. At one time there were four tiers of dealers in the US, I suspect the lowest is effectively gone. I’m sure the Covid/hype years have forever changed how Rolex treats their dealers and bigger is better seems to be the theme.
In late 2019, I heard from two sources that the biggest volume dealers in the US for that year were the Boutiques of Wempe New York, Geary’s Santa Monica, and Deutsch’s Houston. If you know the markets in those cities, it makes perfect sense.

[jrinTX]

I went in to visit my SA to get a ballpark idea of where I’m at wait wise, but he made it sound like they haven’t gotten any SS Subs in lately, says they come in waves. He wouldn’t commit to a time, just that I should get one this summer. Just in my brief 10 minute visit, there were 3 requests to be added to a wait for a sub or explorer and a line queuing out the door.

They had TT watches to sell, but demand is SS.

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by jrinTX

I went in to visit my SA to get a ballpark idea of where I’m at wait wise, but he made it sound like they haven’t gotten any SS Subs in lately, says they come in waves. He wouldn’t commit to a time, just that I should get one this summer. Just in my brief 10 minute visit, there were 3 requests to be added to a wait for a sub or explorer and a line queuing out the door.

They had TT watches to sell, but demand is SS.

It’s true that they come in waves. But they always has a submariner in steel in stock trust me. I have a friend with endless money and everytime we are at a AD and he goes bananas they always find a steel sub/gmt from the back. Tried it at 4 AD’s. lol.

[881]

Amusing

[belutak]

Originally Posted by socalsean

I did a rough calculations as follows:

1. Typical AD gets 50 watches per month.
2. About 1/3 are sports models in Sub, GMT, Daytona, AK, Explorers, YM, SD
3. Out of ~17 sports models, ~5 are TT and gold.
4. That leaves about 12 steel sports watches. Maybe ~5 Subs and 1 or less for other models.

I think your estimate is too optimistic wrt Sub allocations


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[1William]

Interesting discussion. Just doing the math there are still not enough watches to go around and that is just based on our speculation without hard data.

[brandrea]

Interesting conversation. I literally have no idea how many watches my AD would get in a month.

They are a boutique in the GTA, so I’d image they are close to the top of the food chain volume wise. Their store is quite large and just to pay the rent, they’d have to be moving a lot of units every month.