Prices ever coming down?

[Wilddyan]

Hi guys

So I have a quick question- like most of you I really like the matte dial vintage Rolexes (I currently have a snowflake and GMT 1675). I have wanted a 5512 or 5513 for a while and am finally looking at getting one. However I'm wondering if prices will ever come down.

Every time I post I something am interested in or see someone else post something the feedback tends to be 'not for that price', however the prices between dealers, sales corners, ebay and auctions (once commission added) seem to be the same now (obviously with the exception of a few rip off spots, like Burlington Arcade in London).

So after seeing the Omega MILSM300 at Bonhams go for £25k to a seasoned collector, do I buy now or do I wait in anticipation prices go down?

[joe100]

If we knew the future, we'd be buying stocks.

Everyone felt that rolex was in a bubble but it seems prices are reaching new records every quarter on some models.

[Vincent65]

don't hold your breath!

[mike]

Yeah, good question and one that is always in the mind of the collector/investor.

One can remember the bubble back slide some years ago and realize it can happen.

Here's my thoughts;

World economies play a part in valuations. Rare/historical significant/pristine examples of a given reference will hold valuations though the universe of buyers many shrink or expand depending on conditions.

Where some may realise a hit is buying a "common" reference that is less than ideal. I put 5513s, 1675s, etc in this catagory.

The internet is subject to a lot of hype in hopes of selling a less than ideal example at inflated prices.

Not only vintage but select modern references fall into this arena. Are there modern pieces that will increase in value over time? I think so. The 16610LV comes to mind though not for stupid money that some vintage/historical piecescommand.

The bottom line for me has always been to buy the BEST example one can even if you have to "pay forward" a bit. No you won't realize a profit tomorrow but disipline in the key.

There are those that view vintage as somewhat a store of value like art, coins, etc.. in economies that now give negative interest rates. The key, as always, is study and research, and an understanding that you may not realize your money as quickly as some other vechiles.

[watchcrank]

Good advice. Buy what pleases you with consideration to buying the best example you can afford. If you are a flipper that's one thing, collectors are another. m

[MonBK]

Everything goes up except boats.

[Wilddyan]

Originally Posted by watchcrank

Good advice. Buy what pleases you with consideration to buying the best example you can afford. If you are a flipper that's one thing, collectors are another. m

Definitely a collector; have some other non Rolex watches too and keep thinking about selling to fund new ones, but just can't seem to let them go.

[Wesley Crusher]

Hard to say, but unless there is a shift in interest (i.e., vintage watches become less popular), I don't really see prices going down. There are only a certain number of vintage watches out there. A lot are already accounted for and as more people are exposed to vintage watches (mainland China comes to mind), it is only going to be harder to find clean examples.

If you see something that you like right now, buy it. Don't wait for what may happen. Do your research, take your time and buy smart. In the future, if the value goes up, great! If not, at least you will have a great watch that you can enjoy for many years.

[Franks07]

Originally Posted by MonBK

Everything goes up except boats.

Lest we omit horses from the "good money after bad" scenario.
Boats, horses and even watches should be bought and owned for the personal enjoyment that they provide. To collect and enjoy is very different than being an "investor".Most Investors own "things" for the express purpose of (hopefully) realizing a future profit.
My view is to buy what gives you enjoyment and if there is an added bonus of realizing appreciation then consider that a bonus. Buyers of brand new watches (and automobiles) from ADs obviously get that and tend to enjoy their pieces more by wearing the heck out of them...vintage watch owners not so much.

[Wilddyan]

Originally Posted by Franks07

Boats, horses and even watches should be bought and owned for the personal enjoyment that they provide.

I want to buy to enjoy, like many, subs are what go me into watches. I really want a 5512/13 to keep for years. If goes up then great. I guess am wondering if people felt there was a slide in prices coming. General consensus seems to be not likely at the moment.

[cajuntiger]

They aren't making any more of these...I don't see prices coming down anytime soon.
It is getting harder and harder to find nice examples.

[joli160]

You will never know but in the last 5 years prices of Antique furniture have dropped enormously. My family was in this business and a nice 18th century cabinet which you could easily sell for 20K five years ago will bring only 5K today.
Luckily classic watches are still not considered antique
Very hard to predict a market.

[Wilddyan]

Out of interest- if offered a gilt 5513 or Matte 5513 which would people go for? The Gilt is obviously a little more expensive but within range.

Stupid question, but is there any reason to be more careful wearing a gilt then normal matte 5513? Like the idea of a true sub daily beater.

[redfred]

Originally Posted by Wilddyan

Out of interest- if offered a gilt 5513 or Matte 5513 which would people go for? The Gilt is obviously a little more expensive but within range.

Stupid question, but is there any reason to be more careful wearing a gilt then normal matte 5513? Like the idea of a true sub daily beater.

Prices on Gilts vary enormousely depending on the dial condition, I have both and the gilt was double the price of the matte purely because it is as good as you would get. I have seen poor examples selling for not much more than a decent 5513, no reason to treat them any different to a matte dial.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by MonBK

Everything goes up except boats.

[QueueCumber]

I think rare vintage sports watches are like rare vintage sports cars. There is demand because they represent a period lifestyle that is romantic and interesting. The first people to wear the early sports model watches wore them because they were useful as tools for their adventurous lifestyles.

[GB-man]

No clue but we sure haven't seen any evidence of a major correction or even a dip.

[ndsleep612]

The current hype is based on the assumption that prices will go up further from mainland China. People there aren't dumb, many tend to put their money into real estate investments and the stock market. Usually when they look for a bit purchase, they do lots of due diligence on the internet and get opinions from their friends.

When I was in Shanghai recently, I saw VERY few Rolexes worn among the local folks due to the saturated market of counterfeit Rolex, Gucci and Louis Vuitton. Most of the nice watches that I saw the moneyed crowd wearing were contemporary IWC, Panerai and Richard Mille. The clientele for luxury goods are very very sophisticated. Then again, this was in Shanghai, in Southern China, Rolex is heavily favored there.

As for future prices of vintage Rolex, it's hard to say. It all depends on the "watch du jour" then. In Asia, 18 years ago the craze was for the Explorer I, due to a Japanese soap opera. Then it was the Explorer II. In the US and Western countries, the Submariner is still king with the GMT Master II close behind.

[ghotihead2001]

i may be a little out of my element here, but if you look at the price of the paul newman daytona as a bench mark. Prices have been climbing for the last 25 years. Granted, we are talking about the rare/highest quality watches here so I believe we will see that segement continue to do well....your run of the mill 5513 or 1675 (in great condition) can be expected to at VERY LEAST hold its value.

PN prices from the great hodinkee article ( http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/referen...newman-daytona )

2013 $75,000 (Christie’s, New York, June 11, 2013)

2008 $66,000 (Antiquorum, October 17, 2008)

2003 $39,434 (Antiquorum, October 11, 2003)

1998 $17,296 (Christie’s, London, March 18, 1998)

1992 $9,257 (Antiquorum, April 11, 1992)

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by ndsleep612

The current hype is based on the assumption that prices will go up further from mainland China. People there aren't dumb, many tend to put their money into real estate investments and the stock market. Usually when they look for a bit purchase, they do lots of due diligence on the internet and get opinions from their friends.

When I was in Shanghai recently, I saw VERY few Rolexes worn among the local folks due to the saturated market of counterfeit Rolex, Gucci and Louis Vuitton. Most of the nice watches that I saw the moneyed crowd wearing were contemporary IWC, Panerai and Richard Mille. The clientele for luxury goods are very very sophisticated. Then again, this was in Shanghai, in Southern China, Rolex is heavily favored there.

As for future prices of vintage Rolex, it's hard to say. It all depends on the "watch du jour" then. In Asia, 18 years ago the craze was for the Explorer I, due to a Japanese soap opera. Then it was the Explorer II. In the US and Western countries, the Submariner is still king with the GMT Master II close behind.

I don't know about China and Chinese sophistication, but I do get a kick out of watching Chinese tourists packing suitcases full of clothes, purses, and shoes on Madison Avenue and on other luxury avenues around the globe.

They aren't making more of the vintage Rolex pieces. The demand is high and collectors are hoarding, so I don't think the market even needs Chinese interest at the moment. The growing interest in vintage sports watches globally, excluding China, is more than enough of a swell when dealing with the smaller output of the Rolex sports models of the 1950s through the early 1960s.

Stick with the rarer pieces is my philosophy. If the demand loosens on the more common pieces and there is a buildup of excess pieces, the demand will still remain for the pieces that are harder to find and acquire IMHO.

[007Sub]

Originally Posted by Vincent65

don't hold your breath!

So true!!

Prices are usually determined by supply and demand. As social media and things like instagram make enthusiasts more aware of what vintage watches are and how they differ from contemporary watches, the demand will continue to increase. Now... by virtue of the fact that vintage watches are no longer made and get more and more scarce with time, you have yourself a receipt for increased demand and decreased supply hence prices will only go up.

[Beelzy]

Buy now, prices will never go down... not on a 5513.

[oldLeatherNeck]

Originally Posted by ndsleep612

The current hype is based on the assumption that prices will go up further from mainland China.

Well, where did you get this info from?

[Wilddyan]

And one last question- Red sub vs Gilt 5513? Would love to have both, and maybe one day. But would be great to hear thoughts...

[trumpedaces]

Originally Posted by MonBK

Everything goes up except boats.

and most Speedmasters

[lhanddds]

Originally Posted by Wilddyan

And one last question- Red sub vs Gilt 5513? Would love to have both, and maybe one day. But would be great to hear thoughts...

Gilt for me

[redfred]

Originally Posted by Wilddyan

And one last question- Red sub vs Gilt 5513? Would love to have both, and maybe one day. But would be great to hear thoughts...

Thats a toughie, from a price point of view in the UK a good gilt will cost more than a good red but again I stress GOOD gilt.

[V.lats97nsx]

I wish they came down

[Wing Zero]

I've been waiting for prices to come down for the past 5 years, but they just keep going up and up.

[ARL002]

Originally Posted by mike

Where some may realise a hit is buying a "common" reference that is less than ideal. I put 5513s, 1675s, etc in this catagory.

Great overall advice! One of the main reasons I went with a 16750 vs 1675 on a recent GMT purchase, if for nothing else than the relative scarcity. Agree that quality pieces, if you can find them, in any reference will likely hold value.