Buy low, sell high?

[jd57]

In light of the sports watch mania, is it time to move some pieces that are nice but not favorites and don't get much wrist time? 5164R would be an example. Selling well above list at the moment.

No one knows how high they go, but we all know what happens when the bubble bursts (2008 wasn't that long ago).

Don't particularly need to sell, but that may be the right time.

[Calatrava r]

There is no bubble to burst anytime soon. The supply is nowhere near the demand and economic changes are not going to impact this segment of the market much. It ends when SS sports watches are no longer hot. Good luck on that.

[mongrelnomoad]

It’s different this time, right?

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

There is no bubble to burst anytime soon. The supply is nowhere near the demand and economic changes are not going to impact this segment of the market much. It ends when SS sports watches are no longer hot. Good luck on that.

I can see that Patek's segment of the market in general may not be much affected by economic changes. But the 5711 and 5712 wait lists are likely full of people who traditionally had been buying 5k or 10k pieces, SS Rolexes etc... Why not get on the list for a Nautilus - lots of upside and nothing to lose... Many of those might drop off in challenging economic times.

[JJ WA]

I do not believe anyone can really predict if/when the bubble will burst. The brands could decide to increase supply of sports models by reducing the amount of dress models, or the demand might decrease because people simply do not want to spend on mechanical watches anymore. Before the first iPhone came out, I am sure the likes of Nokia and Blackberry thought the demand for their phones would continue to be solid, and then something new ended up shaking the market. Wearing a mechanical watch today is an ‘option’ of style and craftmanship appreciation - as such, this can quickly change (especially as several other devices tell time). Who knows? I have tons of friends who would only wear a smart watch or band. It is impossible to predict. And this scary opinion comes from someone who REALLY does not want to see any bubble bursting as I own many highly coveted SS pieces. In sum, if you have a watch that has gained a lot of value and which you do not love, yes, go ahead and sell it.

[RHIII]

Its the first time I’ve truly ever considered selling some of my watches. I haven’t as of yet, but I’ve had a few interesting offers for a few of the ‘hot’ references.

While the ‘bubble’ might not burst anytime soon - when does this ‘method’ reach the point of diminishing return for some manufacturers - and people’s opinions sour (more-so) and they go to other brands? It’s a slippery slope for sure.

I say - release the dang watches - and be done.

Honestly, I think these ‘shortages’ are to more ‘weed out’ less productive ADs - and completely shift the ‘discounts available’ paradigm off of some.

I still feel bad for the newer enthusiast that just wants a certain watch - and literally gets laughed out of an AD. That, to me is just sad, and disconcerting at the same time.

And no - you’ll NEVER ever get rid of the flipper or the grey market (regardless of supply and demand) - and manufacturers know that. Which is why I think the ‘game’ has a much larger objective.

Just my .02


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[soundserious]

Buy high sell higher.

[Fat_ninja]

Buy low, buy high, buy more?

[AK797]

This is a hobby to me, the last thing I want to do here is try to time and analyse the market. It's the same reason why I always switch off my phone when I can. I want separation and not everything merging into one.

[GB-man]

I would hold on any 5164A or R. I think they have room to run. Just my opinion.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I would hold on any 5164A or R. I think they have room to run. Just my opinion.

Now you just talking dirty

[mobster600]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I would hold on any 5164A or R. I think they have room to run. Just my opinion.

Who are the buyers? 50k-60k for a 5164? Then the 5711 will be 75k maybe? I think the only place to run is away from those prices

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mobster600

Who are the buyers? 50k-60k for a 5164? Then the 5711 will be 75k maybe? I think the only place to run is away from those prices

You are off by about $10k

[mobster600]

Omg! I am speechless

What would I rather buy a 5711 or Range Rover? LOL

[rollyp]

Not sure why someone would list a 5711 blue in the $80k range when there are several listed for significantly less on the exact same site.

I guess they want to make demand look crazier than it is.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by mobster600

Who are the buyers? 50k-60k for a 5164? Then the 5711 will be 75k maybe? I think the only place to run is away from those prices

Certainly not me but people are crazy and they have too much money right now if that’s even a thing

I believe the 5164 is a far nicer watch than the 5711 and justifies a higher price. If someone wants to sell me a 5164R today at retail I’m buying it and putting it in the safe all day.

Show me a sport Patek with a better executed dial. Maybe the 5740 but those are unicorns. It’s symmetry is extremely pleasing and unlike some other executions (5726 for example) there are no compromises on the dial side because of the movement not being designed with the dial in mind first.

I also think John Mayer hyping it up in his last video will make a bunch of tasteless remoras chase it down.

Just my thoughts. Time will tell.

[DennTs]

Originally Posted by mobster600

Omg! I am speechless

What would I rather buy a 5711 or Range Rover? LOL

I rather do down payment for a nice house

[bruinmd]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

You are off by about $10k

except that these list prices don't mean much.........ie--these are likely not the prices the watch is actually selling for.

I've talked to a couple of grey dealers who have shot me straight about listed prices vs what many of these watches actually sell for.
Below is a good example of the discrepancy between what is being asked and what is being offered, on a similar hard to get model:

https://stockx.com/audemars-piguet-r...SABEgLDWfD_BwE

[WatchLurv]

I think a lot of the people currently on the waitlists are opportunists. It's the Tom, Dick & Harry flippers. They'll find the cash to buy it and then flip it. When the market has taken this turn, you know it's coming to near the end.

How many people have 50-90K spare in their bank account for a watch to wear and keep?

If the bubble bursts and prices drop significantly all these people on the list for a 5980/1R will drop like flies. You think they have the balls (or $) to go buy it for 85000 and then hope they can quickly flip it for 90K? Doubt it.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Certainly not me but people are crazy and they have too much money right now if that’s even a thing

I believe the 5164 is a far nicer watch than the 5711 and justifies a higher price. If someone wants to sell me a 5164R today at retail I’m buying it and putting it in the safe all day.

Show me a sport Patek with a better executed dial. Maybe the 5740 but those are unicorns. It’s symmetry is extremely pleasing and unlike some other executions (5726 for example) there are no compromises on the dial side because of the movement not being designed with the dial in mind first.

I also think John Mayer hyping it up in his last video will make a bunch of tasteless remoras chase it down.

Just my thoughts. Time will tell.

I'd say the 5740 dial is a touch cramped, 41mm would have been ideal I think.

[CamSLC]

I remember these same conversations in 2017 when it passed $30k.

[V25V]

Chrono24 is crap, those prices are certainly over market.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

I remember these same conversations in 2017 when it passed $30k.

Exactly, never try to pick a top, been saying that for 2 years in the watch market now.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I think a lot of the people currently on the waitlists are opportunists. It's the Tom, Dick & Harry flippers. They'll find the cash to buy it and then flip it. When the market has taken this turn, you know it's coming to near the end.

How many people have 50-90K spare in their bank account for a watch to wear and keep?

If the bubble bursts and prices drop significantly all these people on the list for a 5980/1R will drop like flies. You think they have the balls (or $) to go buy it for 85000 and then hope they can quickly flip it for 90K? Doubt it.

+1

Plenty of people seem to be way overspending on Rolex/PP since they know they can recover their money if they sell. If the tide starts turning, I have a feeling many will be tripping over each other running for the exits.

[kneedeep]

When the music stops, it won't be pretty for those paying 2 times and more MSRP.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

It’s different this time, right?

Shhh, we have money on the sidelines waiting....

[vlps]

Yeah the reality is you shouldnt worry about selling high, just enjoy the watches and you should be fine in the event of a crash because they should always at least trade at msrp.

Like someone above mentioned, the only people that will get hurt will be people paying 2 times MSRP

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by tng11

+1

Plenty of people seem to be way overspending on Rolex/PP since they know they can recover their money if they sell. If the tide starts turning, I have a feeling many will be tripping over each other running for the exits.

Yep. Whoever has maxed out their credit to get these watches, I feel sorry for. But let's see...I'm the first to jump the gun if the world collapses and it's on the verge of extinction for humans (or whatever they seem to sell on frontpages); watches + properties will be snapped up.

[Codik]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Yep. Whoever has maxed out their credit to get these watches, I feel sorry for. But let's see...I'm the first to jump the gun if the world collapses and it's on the verge of extinction for humans (or whatever they seem to sell on frontpages); watches + properties will be snapped up.

Why feel sorry for people who get into debt to buy an unnecessary luxury they can't afford?

From my perspective, it became a lot easier to convince myself to buy PPs because, right now, I can resell them at a good price if my circumstances change. But that's a nice bonus not the purpose of the purchase - and there is no chance I would ever buy a luxury item on credit. If the market crashes (as it will in the next downturn, whenever that is), it won't change my life since I intend to simply carry on enjoying the watches.

[1William]

If the watches that are valued over what you have in them are not being worn and don't have a special place in the collection I would move on. It is a bonus that you will profit as most of the time on watches that move out of the collection you lose or if lucky, break even on a sale/flip. I am/would prefer to be sitting on cash and watches I really like and will not sale. When the market turns, and it will turn, I will be sitting and waiting to buy, at my number, several hot watches. Take your profits.