When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[stockae92]

I'll let you when I can get a SS Daytona at AD, with discount, and they actually treats me like I am the boss ...

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by stockae92

I'll let you when I can get a SS Daytona at AD, with discount, and they actually treats me like I am the boss ...

Don't forget the new Ferrari, am sure for you they'll set one aside immediately, and at a discount of course. Don't they know who you are?

[mannyv11]

Like others have said. I’ve seen a few of the trusted sellers on moda buying and selling. Not sure what the big deal is.

[GrailTime]

Judging by this sites For Sale forum, the prices are still ridiculously high.

P1sses me off a little when sellers on here want to price their watches at significantly over what the lower equivalent is on ebay or Chrono24. Especially given that most will be avoiding tax on the sale.

[S’portEye]

Lot’s of people smarter than me on this thread. However, I firmly believe that we have not seen the bottom yet.

[superpop]

You guys are confusing a fashion trend with an economic trend. Fashion, Hype and FOMO have driven the price of Rolex up, with the flippers flooding in to make an easy buck. Rolex does not produce investment securities, they produce fashion baubles.

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by superpop

You guys are confusing a fashion trend with an economic trend. Fashion, Hype and FOMO have driven the price of Rolex up, with the flippers flooding in to make an easy buck. Rolex does not produce investment securities, they produce fashion baubles.

And at least a million a year….soon to maybe two million….

[supernova]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?

Ah those were the good old days. Not that long ago mind you... And I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to that although I do think will take a number of years.

[MILGAUSS88]

The watch market will stop going lower when the Chinese economic markets start to recover.
The 2 biggest influences on the market where China and bitcoin.
Bitcoin isn't doing bad, so that leaves China.

[liberalclown]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

The watch market will stop going lower when the Chinese economic markets start to recover.
The 2 biggest influences on the market where China and bitcoin.
Bitcoin isn't doing bad, so that leaves China.

I disagree, it's the monetary growth that drove the frenzy. Cash is scarce and the layoffs going around the world, either the production will drop to keep the prices stable, or the prices will continue to go down to increase the demand.

[fsprow]

I think it’s a fools errand to predict the future price of any security, product etc. I have heard from three resellers of high end watches that their business has sharply picked up recently. Is that a trend? Who knows?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by fsprow

I think it’s a fools errand to predict the future price of any security, product etc. I have heard from three resellers of high end watches that their business has sharply picked up recently. Is that a trend? Who knows?

That’s smoke and mirrors. Look at any of the dealer chats or B2B networks. Prices haven’t picked up.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

That’s smoke and mirrors. Look at any of the dealer chats or B2B networks. Prices haven’t picked up.

I did not say prices had picked up- rather that it appears more business is being transacted.

[PhilAviate]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

The watch market will stop going lower when the Chinese economic markets start to recover.
The 2 biggest influences on the market where China and bitcoin.
Bitcoin isn't doing bad, so that leaves China.

China is facing demographic collapse.
That is mathematical fact.
Unless they can magic a bunch of 35 year olds into existence in the next 5 years they are facing a total meltdown of their economy.

[Nads786]

Prices still seem pretty steady with grey dealers. I just reviewed pricing for the BLNR and still see pricing around $16-18K.

[WatchEater666]

Prices will probably move up slightly ~US tax refund time then drop quite a bit.

[Joearch]

Increase in demand + static supply means higher prices (2016-2022). As demand starts to taper some due to flipper slowing/less Covid money and when/if Rolex increases production/supply we will most likely see prices adjust down accordingly for preowned and possible discounts for certain models like DJ.

[Moondoggy]

When it wants to.

[jimcameron]

Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.

[Calatrava r]

After market values have become so important to lots of Rolex buyers. If the used prices would fall below MSRP on most models, a lot of new buyers at ADs in my view, would drop out. There needs to be a cost of ownership to restore sanity to the market.

[johnsonsxusfrt]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

After market values have become so important to lots of Rolex buyers. If the used prices would fall below MSRP on most models, a lot of new buyers at ADs in my view, would drop out. There needs to be a cost of ownership to restore sanity to the market.

most Rolex models are at or below retail on the secondary market, especially the precious metal models. The only ones commanding any premium are the daytona, GMT (pepsi, sprite, batman), sub (barely 10%), skydweller (green or blue dial).

Sea Dwellers, gold subs, gold day dates, yacht masters, deep sea, explorers, gold sky dwellers are all below retail.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.

I for one appreciate the mods moving such discussions to the watch out forum rather than deleting it.

It's part of the watch discussions and discourse. If you don't like it done read it / comment on it. AND it doesn't clog up the main Rolex forum

Win win in my book

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.

And yet it would have been so easy to avoid this self-inflicted infringement upon your time.

[offrdmania]

Until grey and secondhand dealers decide to let pieces go for less than they paid for them, you will continue to see higher prices.
A lot of the prices are inflated because watch dealers trade amongst themselves, stating that the watch is sold for X dollars (inflated price) when in fact it was only sold to another dealer in order to move inventory. Most likely that dealer will pass the watch to another dealer, showing that it too was sold at an inflated price. Unless we know that any of these watches were sold to end users, this game will continue.

[rushca01]

Modern 6 digit watches are selling and moving still, that includes from secondary sellers to end consumer not just B2B. I’m hunting for a couple references and watching the market and they are selling and moving, maybe not as fast as a year ago but they’re a moving for sure.

[TunaTuna]

I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.

Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book.

If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50.

Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.

Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book.

If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50.

Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch.

I’ve done just that with multiple pieces but I have no illusions that it’s a sure thing. If the bottom were to fall out of the stock market or economy at large we could go much much lower. I don’t care. There’s a lot out there at prices I can stomach.

[Rolex1982]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.

Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book.

If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50.

Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch.

It’s always time to buy if you really love the watch. But I agree with your post.

[trojanrolex]

Want to know what the true value of your watch is? Try to sell it to multiple dealers and see what they'll pay.

Don't bother at looking at "asking" prices.

[digitalcrocodile]

Originally Posted by trojanrolex

Want to know what the true value of your watch is? Try to sell it to multiple dealers and see what they'll pay.

Don't bother at looking at "asking" prices.

The true value of my watch (to me) is the pleasure of owning, and wearing, such a finely engineered (mass produced, albeit) piece of machinery in this age of iPhones, Apple Watches, etc, etc. My daily wear is a 116710BLNR that I routinely bang against pistons, handlebars and frames and daily submerge multiple times in a tank of mineral spirits to degrease engine parts. The fact that it just keeps going and going makes me happy. When I want to get "fancy" I give it a good washing in dish soap and head out on the town.