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Old 19 January 2017, 01:46 PM   #31
Old Expat Beast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Crusher View Post
For the sake of conversation, let's assume that demand for vintage watches (by our current standards) holds constant over the next 100 years.

I don't know if the above example will be worth a quarter of a million dollars, but I do think that the value will continue to rise. As time goes by and the market dries up, people will lower their standards in terms of what is acceptable/desirable.
I'm already assuming constant future demand. What I was wondering about was how the inevitable 100-year decline in condition of the watch (e.g. perhaps lume fallen out of all hands, dial text faded away to almost nothing, etc) will effect price and desirability. Will it be worth more or less in real terms than it is now.
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Old 19 January 2017, 01:58 PM   #32
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As time goes by and the market dries up, people will lower their standards in terms of what is acceptable/desirable.
Excellent point. This 'lowering of the bar' applies to just about anything considered collectible (i.e. vintage-era automobiles/guitars etc.). If owning (or procuring) some antiquity is that important, collectors will eventually have to settle for or accept whatever is available regardless of its condition and/or asking price.
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Old 19 January 2017, 02:29 PM   #33
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I have seen that insert before (or something similar). Reminds me of this - http://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=493927 - looks to be very similar?
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Old 19 January 2017, 02:39 PM   #34
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I have seen that insert before (or something similar). Reminds me of this - http://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=493927 - looks to be very similar?
Well spotted...looks like same insert, different dial though.

Full ad: http://www.hqmilton.com/timepieces/j...th-papers-7833
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Old 19 January 2017, 02:39 PM   #35
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Well spotted...looks like same insert, different dial though.


... and same papers, it seems.
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Old 19 January 2017, 02:47 PM   #36
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Very interesting. The owner may have been in possession of the original dial or a period correct dial has been obtained and put in. If someone wanted to ask I'm sure that the seller would oblige with an answer on that. It was serviced by the seller in September. Ah Instagram!
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Old 19 January 2017, 05:39 PM   #37
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I don't know heaps about vintage Rolex but I have a collecting philosophy... I too like mint original examples but also don't mind crapped out watches that tell a story but only if they are original and not stuffed around with including unpolished irrespective of condition.......to me the bezel issue plus the difference in the hand lume v's dial that may suggest non original (but maybe correct - and I know not all lume changes the same!! ) - checked listing - replacement hands = loss of intrinsic value for me...
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Old 19 January 2017, 05:45 PM   #38
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I don't know heaps about vintage Rolex but I have a collecting philosophy... I too like mint original examples but also don't mind crapped out watches that tell a story but only if they are original and not stuffed around with including unpolished irrespective of condition.......to me the bezel issue plus the difference in the hand lume v's dial that may suggest non original (but maybe correct - and I know not all lume changes the same!! ) - checked listing - replacement hands = loss of intrinsic value for me...
And never stuff around with a vintage EJ Holden either. Don't like it when people drop the suspension and put mag wheels on them!
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Old 19 January 2017, 06:04 PM   #39
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And never stuff around with a vintage EJ Holden either. Don't like it when people drop the suspension and put mag wheels on them!
Yep same philosophy - My EJ was as it left the factory minus service changes.....I would never buy a mint GTHO if restored if I could have an average to good original one and thats what the market demonstrates in terms of value...
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Old 19 January 2017, 06:38 PM   #40
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C'mon fellas .....

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Yep same philosophy - My EJ was as it left the factory minus service changes.....I would never buy a mint GTHO if restored if I could have an average to good original one and thats what the market demonstrates in terms of value...

What about mods that are so subtle no one would ever notice ?
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Old 19 January 2017, 06:53 PM   #41
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Yeah condition is repelling but an all original no CG sub doesn't come cheap. Same thing to a degree with vintage cars; worn original >> restored
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Old 19 January 2017, 07:31 PM   #42
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What about mods that are so subtle no one would ever notice ?
Nice!!! straight line great...Corner???
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Old 19 January 2017, 07:32 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast View Post
I'm already assuming constant future demand. What I was wondering about was how the inevitable 100-year decline in condition of the watch (e.g. perhaps lume fallen out of all hands, dial text faded away to almost nothing, etc) will effect price and desirability. Will it be worth more or less in real terms than it is now.
I think that is my issue with survivor cars and watches for that matter. If they are not, at some point, lovingly and sympathetically restored in some way, they will not last forever and then what will their value be when they are falling apart and beyond repair. If we truly believe we are custodians of these historical items, then surely we have a duty to preserve them for future generations.

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Old 19 January 2017, 07:54 PM   #44
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Future generations may not give a crap...We are only interested in this stuff because it was a part of our history.... Of course there are examples to the contrary but many also not...I don't see antique furniture or toys doing so well now as compared to 10=15 years ago....
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Old 19 January 2017, 07:57 PM   #45
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i believe that mechanical watches shall continue to rise in the years to come. It would make sense a mechanical watch worth 20k today to reach 100s in a few decades from now.
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Old 19 January 2017, 08:05 PM   #46
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i believe that mechanical watches shall continue to rise in the years to come. It would make sense a mechanical watch worth 20k today to reach 100s in a few decades from now.
Well if we all had a crystal ball that would be great...make sense?? I hope you are right but so many variables....
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Old 19 January 2017, 09:18 PM   #47
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I think that is my issue with survivor cars and watches for that matter. If they are not, at some point, lovingly and sympathetically restored in some way, they will not last forever and then what will their value be when they are falling apart and beyond repair. If we truly believe we are custodians of these historical items, then surely we have a duty to preserve them for future generations.

Dan
I agree with this.
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Old 19 January 2017, 09:57 PM   #48
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I agree with this.
I guess that comment would be based on????

Most collectors who now have pristine collections of whatever aren’t using them the same as they were originally designed....They are already somewhat preserved…..So...??? Yes I agree to a point that there is value between restoration and original.....One will always hold it's value the other may not????....
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Old 19 January 2017, 10:45 PM   #49
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Future generations may not give a crap...We are only interested in this stuff because it was a part of our history.... Of course there are examples to the contrary but many also not...I don't see antique furniture or toys doing so well now as compared to 10=15 years ago....


I agree. Eventually things will be integrated into a watch or phone or some other device. I don't think my young kids will wear them. Oh well things change.


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Old 19 January 2017, 10:56 PM   #50
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It's a big old world out there...originality is in vogue.

Would you have paid over $500K for this?



Well it sold at Bonhams Quail Lodge Auction in August. The Chasing Classic Cars show documented the untouched find in an episode.

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Old 20 January 2017, 12:05 AM   #51
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I'm already assuming constant future demand. What I was wondering about was how the inevitable 100-year decline in condition of the watch (e.g. perhaps lume fallen out of all hands, dial text faded away to almost nothing, etc) will effect price and desirability. Will it be worth more or less in real terms than it is now.
To borrow from bankers, who borrowed from wine makers, vintage tables are commonly used to value wine, or loans. Both the bankers and the vintners' tables go quickly to zero when the wine expires (spoils) or the loan defaults.

So I say it will be worth less as one day the watch will cease to function as a watch... until then i think it rises and flattens just before it breaks down. I have yet to see a debate on this site over condition where there is a unanimous "no" when there is a question of degradation having gone too far, so there will be demand. This watch is beat up just about as much as any I have seen discussed and we are having the debate.
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Old 20 January 2017, 01:40 AM   #52
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What about mods that are so subtle no one would ever notice ?
Nice Survivor car
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Old 20 January 2017, 02:03 AM   #53
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Vintage is cool, but the one in the first post is FUBAR.
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Old 20 January 2017, 06:29 AM   #54
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One of the great things about the future is that we can not know it. There are days when I think about the decline in the wearing of wristwatches and feel sadness. Not about loss of invested capital, but of yet another staple of my life/youth becoming redundant. I never expected the post office to suffer a decline, or the public library not to be one of the cultural centers of a municipality, yet here we are. But whether an item is worthy of collection is not function of it's, well, function. There are still many collectors of glass telephone-pole insulators. In the 1960s and 1970s, snuff-boxes were the hottest collectible, and few were dipping snuff in those days (it was pre-cocaine-era, in case you were wondering). The market only cooled once most examples were in private hands and collections. Maybe future generations will adore the mechanical precision and artistry of the archaic wristwatch. Maybe they'll be as popular as ordinary ink-stands. We can't really know. But we can live and enjoy the moments we are given.
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Old 20 January 2017, 05:22 PM   #55
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That's nearly as much as a "Paul Newman" Daytona! Excellent patina on this example though.
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Old 20 January 2017, 06:20 PM   #56
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That's nearly as much as a "Paul Newman" Daytona! Excellent patina on this example though.
If only vintage Rolex was a mainstream topic...there's some great stand-up material there really.
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