Has anyone rigorously investigated price trends on TRF?

[slocke0624]

For better or worse, my training as an economist always finds a way to play a role in my hobbies. I was looking through the older classified postings today to see what a 16710 Pepsi (D serial) sold for in 2007/2008 compared to today and was wondering if anyone else make a habit of this. The appreciation (inflation adjusted) was pretty significant so I decided to do the same thing for a 16610 (M serial) and noticed the return was much less significant. I was thinking about spending a few nights tracking the 16610s and 16710s for the past couple of years to see how these things have been trending. Before I proceed, I was wondering how much interest there would be in this. Of course, I would only be able to base this off the final asking price and not the actual sales price as those are not listed, but I think it could still be a fun/informative way to learn more about these pieces. As a new member, I also think this is one way I could contribute to the wealth of knowledge that already exists. Any thoughts?

[Old Expat Beast]

I think it's a great idea, and I'm sure many members would be very interested in your findings. Although this thread would get more attention in the Open Discussion forum, so you might post there when you're ready.

[Rogdogg]

I also think it's a great idea. I would be very interested to see your findings too.

[Lgear080]

I'd pick a more interesting, older serial... think 1680/5512/5513. I'd stay within a particular age range
to keep the sample valid.

There are some awesome comments from years ago about people "not being able to get rid of these..."

[Knappo 1307]

Man-Holding-Magnifying-Glass-724371.jpg

[TonyD]

Also curious but suggest you try and stick to apples to apples as much as possible, ie skip watches without box and papers and only use data from watches in good/great condition.

[slocke0624]

Originally Posted by TonyD

Also curious but suggest you try and stick to apples to apples as much as possible, ie skip watches without box and papers and only use data from watches in good/great condition.

That is the plan since this first attempt will simply be comparing the ask price. If I decide this is a fruitful endeavor, I will be able to include most of the watches and account for no box/paper, condition, etc. I'm interested in knowing what the box and papers are worth after holding constant age and condition.

[slocke0624]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

I think it's a great idea, and I'm sure many members would be very interested in your findings. Although this thread would get more attention in the Open Discussion forum, so you might post there when you're ready.

I agree 100%. was browsing the discussion forms and must have opened the window for the who's who before posting. Rookie mistake.

[overthehill]

great idea.

[1mlc]

I like the idea but as I am sure you are well aware the variables can be a problem getting any accurate data. You will have to narrow it down to similar examples, condition, year, etc etc.

Ant the etc etc is what always gets you

[ippon20]

I'll play the pessimist here and say it's next to impossible to do accurately. With so many sellers coming from different lanes of proximity to actual wholesale pricing of watches and by not knowing the final sale price your fighting an uphill battle. For example take 3 watches for sale from 3 different sellers (Watch A, Watch B, Watch C)

Watch A is priced at 1,000 and comes from seller that gets close to wholesale.

Watch B is priced at 1,700 and comes from seller that purchases from Watch A seller.

Watch C is priced at 2,300 and comes from seller that purchased at retail and "feels" the watch is worth 2,300.

Now logically in this scenario you would have to assume the model is the exact serial, condition, etc. etc. which in of itself is hard to come across. But assuming it's the case for this example.

You would perceive value of the watch would be the median of all 3 when in all actuality Watch A would be closer to the actual value of the watch with Watch B being slightly higher and Watch C being a proverbial line in the water waiting.

Now how do you find out that Watch B seller actually sold the watch for 1,200 instead of asking price? Or that Watch C wasn't pulled because seller realized the price was too high and it wasn't moving?

You will have more than your fair share of investigating. Since you like to do this sort of thing, you will have fun doing it.

[ippon20]

Originally Posted by Lgear080

I'd pick a more interesting, older serial... think 1680/5512/5513. I'd stay within a particular age range
to keep the sample valid.

There are some awesome comments from years ago about people "not being able to get rid of these..."

To me that would make it worse...with vintage your gonna have to compare polish/unpolished, Patina (no two are the same), and watch history.