Why do complicated watches not hold their value?

[Mac123]

I don’t understand why a super complicated Patek loses a significant amount of its retail price straight after its purchased from an AD and the nautilus / aquanaut range go up in value?

Yes watches should not be bought for investment but it baffles me how 5270p decreases significantly upon purchase and 5167 increases a lot.


What’s you’re thoughts behind the reasons why this happens?

Do you think complications will start to hold their value in the future?

[Tools]

Any value is based on what a willing buyer will pay to a willing seller.

Some models are in greater demand and therefore can command a higher price, others have to be sold cheaper just to get a buyer.

If complications do not become popular enough to drive asking prices upward, then no, they will not become more valuable.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by Mac123

I don’t understand why a super complicated Patek loses a significant amount of its retail price straight after its purchased from an AD and the nautilus / aquanaut range go up in value?

Yes watches should not be bought for investment but it baffles me how 5270p decreases significantly upon purchase and 5167 increases a lot.


What’s you’re thoughts behind the reasons why this happens?

Do you think complications will start to hold their value in the future?

Complicated Pateks hold their value better than just about any consumer product. Deduct any taxes and duties on a 5270P and you’ve got a very limited loss of value after purchase. Stuff that increases in value straight out of the AD are anomalies.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Mac123

I don’t understand why a super complicated Patek loses a significant amount of its retail price straight after its purchased from an AD and the nautilus / aquanaut range go up in value?

Yes watches should not be bought for investment but it baffles me how 5270p decreases significantly upon purchase and 5167 increases a lot.


What’s you’re thoughts behind the reasons why this happens?

Do you think complications will start to hold their value in the future?

Because it is not the 'flavour of the month'. When Messi signed for PSG, he wore a YM40 on OysterFlex while the boss of PSG wore a green dial Nautilus 5711. Professional sport watches are currently riding the hype train so naturally the demand for these watches are higher hence the higher price. Also sport watches are more versatile than a pure dress watch. One can wear a black dial Daytona to a formal event and also to a summer pool party. Can a dress watch go anywhere near a water event? Certain dress watches like 5270, 5970 will gradually go up in prices if you can wait for 50 years and still keep it in pristine condition.

[macrowatch]

Suit sales are still way, way down. So far down in fact by tailor has gotten into the custom hoodie business. I kid you not.

[Snerks]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Suit sales are still way, way down. So far down in fact by tailor has gotten into the custom hoodie business. I kid you not.

This is the right answer. Dress watches are simply not worn as much (and likely will never be). The trend toward casual dress is something I'm willing to bet is a forever trend.

[Xerxes77]

Not all….

[Benzsiam]

I think MSRP of all complicated watch models are overprice and the demand aren't as much as sport models.

[uniqueMR]

We are in sport watch era but I am still buying Complications and Grand Complications. You never know after 10/20/30 years :)

[911AP]

I think it's because dress watches are just worn far less. If they made super complicated pieces in a more sporty way they would sell easily.

[azizu]

I have slightly different opinion than what has been said so far.
Historically speaking and before the hype started: The 5711 and 5167 are among the entry level in terms of patek prices.
So no wonder people thought of it when wanting to enter the patek club rather than complicated or more expensive watches.
As more and more people got interested in these two references and supplies started drying prices in the secondary market started creeping higher (to the point of surpassing higher complication prices)
And interest in other models in the two lines started growing.
Just like people interest grew in other references when 5711 and 5167 where in short supply, and as other models of nautilus and Aquanut also become in short supply…people will develop interest in complicated watches and grand complicated watches
It is a matter of time


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[enjoythemusic]

FP Journe goes up in value. Maybe it has something to do with... you know.

You could try a Rolex SkyD, great value and far better annual calendar design than old-school PP side pushers. Higher waterproofness too.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

FP Journe goes up in value. Maybe it has something to do with... you know.

You could try a Rolex SkyD, great value and far better annual calendar design than old-school PP side pushers. Higher waterproofness too.

Lol seriously now we are comparing Rolex SkyD to Patek Phillips complications?

[macrowatch]

Oh, and tongue in cheek, you could say sales for the most complicated watch of all, from Apple, is sales at all time high.

[uniqueMR]

Originally Posted by azizu

I have slightly different opinion than what has been said so far.
Historically speaking and before the hype started: The 5711 and 5167 are among the entry level in terms of patek prices.
So no wonder people thought of it when wanting to enter the patek club rather than complicated or more expensive watches.
As more and more people got interested in these two references and supplies started drying prices in the secondary market started creeping higher (to the point of surpassing higher complication prices)
And interest in other models in the two lines started growing.
Just like people interest grew in other references when 5711 and 5167 where in short supply, and as other models of nautilus and Aquanut also become in short supply…people will develop interest in complicated watches and grand complicated watches
It is a matter of time


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I agree, 100%. Its matter of time.

[ramenlover]

Few reasons that I can see.

1. People are dressing more casually, and sport models are more versatile and therefore more desirable

2. We live in a time of conspicuous consumption. The people who buy watches hoping nobody will notice their wrist are a small minority. I also believe some of those who claim to be in this group are liars.

To the average guy, it is not easy to tell Calatrava from Daniel Wellington. You might think this is ridiculous, but this is coming from my own experience. And many people who spend $20k+ on a watch do not want it to be mistaken for a watch that costs $200, including myself. This is why I collect both sport and dress watches. Call me pretentious or what not, but this element of conspicuous consumption is the reality of the luxury goods market. Which brings me on to the next point.

3. Sport models are iconic, even from 10 feet away. People can identify a Rolex, Royal Oak and Nautilus just by the bracelet. There’s a reason so many “homage” brands try to copy them. Meanwhile only connoisseurs appreciate the differences between a Calatrava and a Patrimony. To most people they’re just round watches, and Complications are just round watches with more busy dials.

Connoisseurs by definition make up a small portion of the market. This is why demand is less for dress watches…only connoisseurs appreciate them. Meanwhile sport watches are appreciated by typical wealthy spenders, fashionable celebrities and also by connoisseurs therefore there is a much larger market.

[rpl77]

Originally Posted by ramenlover

Few reasons that I can see.

1. People are dressing more casually, and sport models are more versatile and therefore more desirable

2. We live in a time of conspicuous consumption. The people who buy watches hoping nobody will notice their wrist are a small minority. I also believe some of those who claim to be in this group are liars.

To the average guy, it is not easy to tell Calatrava from Daniel Wellington. You might think this is ridiculous, but this is coming from my own experience. And many people who spend $20k+ on a watch do not want it to be mistaken for a watch that costs $200, including myself. This is why I collect both sport and dress watches. Call me pretentious or what not, but this element of conspicuous consumption is the reality of the luxury goods market. Which brings me on to the next point.

3. Sport models are iconic, even from 10 feet away. People can identify a Rolex, Royal Oak and Nautilus just by the bracelet. There’s a reason so many “homage” brands try to copy them. Meanwhile only connoisseurs appreciate the differences between a Calatrava and a Patrimony. To most people they’re just round watches, and Complications are just round watches with more busy dials.

Connoisseurs by definition make up a small portion of the market. This is why demand is less for dress watches…only connoisseurs appreciate them. Meanwhile sport watches are appreciated by typical wealthy spenders, fashionable celebrities and also by connoisseurs therefore there is a much larger market.

This is spot on


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[JR16]

Complicated watches and their second hand prices are not above the laws of supply and demand. Why isn’t there more of a demand for them? Besides their prices (which are unaffordable for even the majority of TRF members), other reasons outlined above.


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[Ichiran]

Complicated functions in Nautilus (5740 & 5726) and Royal Oak (repeater, tourbillon & PC) cases are doing extremely well. I don't think it has anything to do with the complications but the watch case and bracelet which play a big role in demand today. If you drop the PCC movement into the Nautilus case, the value will double from MSRP.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by ramenlover

Few reasons that I can see.

1. People are dressing more casually, and sport models are more versatile and therefore more desirable

2. We live in a time of conspicuous consumption. The people who buy watches hoping nobody will notice their wrist are a small minority. I also believe some of those who claim to be in this group are liars.

To the average guy, it is not easy to tell Calatrava from Daniel Wellington. You might think this is ridiculous, but this is coming from my own experience. And many people who spend $20k+ on a watch do not want it to be mistaken for a watch that costs $200, including myself. This is why I collect both sport and dress watches. Call me pretentious or what not, but this element of conspicuous consumption is the reality of the luxury goods market. Which brings me on to the next point.

3. Sport models are iconic, even from 10 feet away. People can identify a Rolex, Royal Oak and Nautilus just by the bracelet. There’s a reason so many “homage” brands try to copy them. Meanwhile only connoisseurs appreciate the differences between a Calatrava and a Patrimony. To most people they’re just round watches, and Complications are just round watches with more busy dials.

Connoisseurs by definition make up a small portion of the market. This is why demand is less for dress watches…only connoisseurs appreciate them. Meanwhile sport watches are appreciated by typical wealthy spenders, fashionable celebrities and also by connoisseurs therefore there is a much larger market.

Very well said.

[nyc2la]

Lots of good points above about the shift towards sports watches. However, let’s remember that Journe dress watches (simple and complicated) are doing fine. Yes, they make far fewer watches than Patek and perhaps it’s not the perfect comparison, but it wasn’t too long ago that many independent watch brands tanked immensely versus MSRP. As we all know, Journe watches now hold their value very well, and many are even worth even more than MSRP.

I think a big part of it is Journe is priced right whereas Patek’s pricing of dress watches, particularly complications and grand complications, is a bit absurd.

[ericksakti]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

Lots of good points above about the shift towards sports watches. However, let’s remember that Journe dress watches (simple and complicated) are doing fine. Yes, they make far fewer watches than Patek and perhaps it’s not the perfect comparison, but it wasn’t too long ago that many independent watch brands tanked immensely versus MSRP. As we all know, Journe watches now hold their value very well, and many are even worth even more than MSRP.

I think a big part of it is Journe is priced right whereas Patek’s pricing of dress watches, particularly complications and grand complications, is a bit absurd.

If you notice most of FP Journe pieces, the word FP Journe in the dial is very big for most of the models, so most people who knows FP Journe will know that its Journe from a distance. Not saying that its bad, but the branding in the dial is quite flashy and not subtle, and i guess thats part of the appeal.

[cascavel]

Watch prices are currently being driven by consumers of fashion. They don't want to spend hours setting the various little dials on their watch when they haven't worn it in a week. They don't want to spend a fortune having it repaired when one of those little dials doesn't function properly. They want the name without the hassle.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Watch prices are currently being driven by consumers of fashion. They don't want to spend hours setting the various little dials on their watch when they haven't worn it in a week. They don't want to spend a fortune having it repaired when one of those little dials doesn't function properly. They want the name without the hassle.

This.

Consumers of fashion won't pay 50-250k if they can get the name for 25-50k. No wonder 5740 had a slow start in the preowned market compared to most other Nautilus despite being considered the king of the Nautilus lineup by some.

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Oh, and tongue in cheek, you could say sales for the most complicated watch of all, from Apple, is sales at all time high.

i think it's actually fair to do so. i mean i don't see rolex on the same horological plane as pp, but truth be told, i don't think pp quality is on the plane of some other brands right now either.
but i would be curious to see how the 5726 compares to a skydweller

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Complicated functions in Nautilus (5740 & 5726) and Royal Oak (repeater, tourbillon & PC) cases are doing extremely well. I don't think it has anything to do with the complications but the watch case and bracelet which play a big role in demand today. If you drop the PCC movement into the Nautilus case, the value will double from MSRP.

this

[mjm700]

I agree with nearly everything said and supply and demand underlies all. My understanding has always been as an ultra-luxury good, they are not priced to hold their value for resale. That really isn’t the intent or norm for any products of this nature. It is only when there is abnormal demand or a limited / collector version that you see a blip in the resale value. Remember, we are suppose to keep and pass on, not sell. At least that is how they are priced.


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[AK797]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Because it is not the 'flavour of the month'. When Messi signed for PSG, he wore a YM40 on OysterFlex while the boss of PSG wore a green dial Nautilus 5711. Professional sport watches are currently riding the hype train so naturally the demand for these watches are higher hence the higher price. Also sport watches are more versatile than a pure dress watch. One can wear a black dial Daytona to a formal event and also to a summer pool party. Can a dress watch go anywhere near a water event? Certain dress watches like 5270, 5970 will gradually go up in prices if you can wait for 50 years and still keep it in pristine condition.

Not exactly flavour of the month, rather of a key period in time, altho the key month that set all this madness off was July 2016, the month after the shock Brexit vote, when the Pound collapsed and foreign raiders, who have now emerged as the most influential bunch of people to have ever existed in a watch market, collectively decided to buy dirt cheap SS Patek Sports and SS Rolexes, so demand shot up, then prices here shot up and then around the world grey market makers noticed this and raised prices themselves, and the domino effect of spiraling high demand and high prices has continued until this very day.

If those guys in that fateful July had gone for cheap Grand Comps and Datejusts, the whole landscape of the watch market now would be entirely different, but that is what they went for and now he we are.

[ramenlover]

Originally Posted by AK797

Not exactly flavour of the month, rather of a key period in time, altho the key month that set all this madness off was July 2016, the month after the shock Brexit vote, when the Pound collapsed and foreign raiders, who have now emerged as the most influential bunch of people to have ever existed in a watch market, collectively decided to buy dirt cheap SS Patek Sports and SS Rolexes, so demand shot up, then prices here shot up and then around the world grey market makers noticed this and raised prices themselves, and the domino effect of spiraling high demand and high prices has continued until this very day.

If those guys in that fateful July had gone for cheap Grand Comps and Datejusts, the whole landscape of the watch market now would be entirely different, but that is what they went for and now he we are.

I don’t think the Pound is that influential outside of Europe. Brexit may have been a factor but I don’t think it played more than a minor role. There are other forces at work here in my opinion.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Lol seriously now we are comparing Rolex SkyD to Patek Phillips complications?

Absolutely!

Look at the innovation of the Rolex SkyD movement and compare to Patek's annual calendar. Rolex truly is an amazing complication that also ensures a high waterproofness too. Very usable as a daily for people who love office life AND the ocean. Five-year warranty too.

If you mean true high-quality movement decoration, then obviously you'll want FP Journe.

So yes, take your pic if you want incredible innovation (Rolex) or perhaps the very best in movement decoration (FP Journe). How would you compare FP Journe to PP when it comes to offering truly excellent movement handwork?

Here's a video of the SkyD movement, look at all that incredible innovation!

https://youtu.be/abHr5TOu6m4

Am sure you already know of FP Journe's greatness so....

[NYG1121]

Trends come and go and are impossible to predict. All I know is that it is great the younger generation is still into watches. Whatever their reason is it keeps our hobby alive. One day once they get bored of the usual popular sports watches, they will gravitate towards dress watches. We might already be seeing signs of this with rising values of Lange etc