When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[Calatrava r]

One would think the demand would be met at some point soon so there is an equilibrium, but there are still so many buyers looking to build substantial Rolex collections which keeps demand high and concentrated to a solid growing group of enthusiasts.

[gerry100]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

One would think the demand would be met at some point soon so there is an equilibrium, but there are still so many buyers looking to build substantial Rolex collections which keeps demand high and concentrated to a solid growing group of enthusiasts.

How do we know?

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by gerry100

What if everybody who wants a Rolex has one?

I came off the sidelines after about 40 years, low interest rates, FOMO etc. My opinion is that some of Rolex demand has been pulled forward due to external influences.

There are many, many people who could afford a Rolex ( or a collection) but who have zero interest and never will.

The issue unlike 30 years ago, people don’t just want one Rolex and call it a day. It’s a completely different market with a desire to purchase multiple Rolex models. Some never stop buying. Even with the WIS community, if a AD offered up any SS Professional model, they probably will buy it. The general public is a lot less picky and will take anything. The feeding frenzy will never be quenched.
The fascination in the brand is more mainstream than what it ever was. The old adage was Rolex sells every watch they make, which is true. The difference now is how the watches are sold, allocated, and secondary market influencing the final price either in additional jewelry purchases at a AD.
The old days what determined if you could purchase a Rolex was if you could actually afford it. Now that’s laughable as actually having money for the watch is just a minor detail in the road to Rolex ownership.

Nothing stays the same and current pricing might be rock bottom with pricing rebounding up again. In 10 years these current prices will seem low.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The issue unlike 30 years ago, people don’t just want one Rolex and call it a day. It’s a completely different market with a desire to purchase multiple Rolex models. Some never stop buying. Even with the WIS community, if a AD offered up any SS Professional model, they probably will buy it. The general public is a lot less picky and will take anything. The feeding frenzy will never be quenched.
The fascination in the brand is more mainstream than what it ever was. The old adage was Rolex sells every watch they make, which is true. The difference now is how the watches are sold, allocated, and secondary market influencing the final price either in additional jewelry purchases at a AD.
The old days what determined if you could purchase a Rolex was if you could actually afford it. Now that’s laughable as actually having money for the watch is just a minor detail in the road to Rolex ownership.

Nothing stays the same and current pricing might be rock bottom with pricing rebounding up again. In 10 years these current prices will seem low.

There is a perception that a Rolex appreciates like an index fund rather than tracking inflation using a limited sample size of 2019-2022.

Even if it's no longer accurate and wasn't accurate historically, all that matters is the perception - which will linger a lot longer than actual facts. This could be a reason why if a SS model is offered, someone will buy it regardless of desire for that model.

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The issue unlike 30 years ago, people don’t just want one Rolex and call it a day. It’s a completely different market with a desire to purchase multiple Rolex models. Some never stop buying. Even with the WIS community, if a AD offered up any SS Professional model, they probably will buy it. The general public is a lot less picky and will take anything. The feeding frenzy will never be quenched.
The fascination in the brand is more mainstream than what it ever was. The old adage was Rolex sells every watch they make, which is true. The difference now is how the watches are sold, allocated, and secondary market influencing the final price either in additional jewelry purchases at a AD.
The old days what determined if you could purchase a Rolex was if you could actually afford it. Now that’s laughable as actually having money for the watch is just a minor detail in the road to Rolex ownership.

Nothing stays the same and current pricing might be rock bottom with pricing rebounding up again. In 10 years these current prices will seem low.

Very Well Said Mystro ..

[m j b]

The bottom happened last week. YOU MISSED IT!!!

[fly4food84]

I don't think we'll see too much downward pressure... The one going up is the Pepsi because of some hype/rumors.

[gerry100]

Actual interest rates add to the cost of inventory

[superpop]

Rolex is a jewelry manufacturer, jewelry is subject to the whims of pop culture and fashion trends. With some shrewd marketing, they have spun up the hype train and for a while it seemed unstoppable. In the end, what goes up, always comes down in the world of fashion and pop culture. I remember when Breitling and then Panerai where in the same enviable position for a short period of time. Not saying Rolex will have the same result but the way they have managed their channel, has really turned a lot of their true customer base off. The other issue that is not a good look is the wrong kind of attention on the brand. Rolex is now associated with potentially being mugged as the criminal element is now savvy enough to understand they can go to an affluent area and find someone with 10K strapped to their wrist and take it from them. Sometimes with violent results. These two issues could be what ultimately turns people off from the brand.

[Rollieo]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex is a jewelry manufacturer, jewelry is subject to the whims of pop culture and fashion trends. With some shrewd marketing, they have spun up the hype train and for a while it seemed unstoppable. In the end, what goes up, always comes down in the world of fashion and pop culture. I remember when Breitling and then Panerai where in the same enviable position for a short period of time. Not saying Rolex will have the same result but the way they have managed their channel, has really turned a lot of their true customer base off. The other issue that is not a good look is the wrong kind of attention on the brand. Rolex is now associated with potentially being mugged as the criminal element is now savvy enough to understand they can go to an affluent area and find someone with 10K strapped to their wrist and take it from them. Sometimes with violent results. These two issues could be what ultimately turns people off from the brand.

This is completely wrong. I think you’re talking about AP, not Rolex.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

I think that Rolex, with the added value of their CPO program, will keep prices elevated. They already have the infrastructure of their dealer network and can provide a personal shopping experience without the delayed gratification and inherent tension of shipping from third party sellers. And because each of their pre-owned watches will have baked in provenance and a fresh inspection, service and guarantee of authenticity with CPO they can and will charge a premium for them, keeping prices in general across all platforms elevated. Prices have settled down from the days of free money but they won’t crash.

[DVR4]

Grey dealer I have used before is charging 80-85% over retail for SS models of interest.
That is today. So, either they haven't bottomed or he didn't get the memo.

[Speedsleev]

Everyone keeps making comments about the Rolex market being tanked. Where, I’ll step up for any subs, GMT’S etc. for these rock bottom tanked prices that I don’t see anywhere. Sure, it’s not like it was when it was looney land but nothing is and that was a rare wild time that shouldn’t have happened.

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by Speedsleev

Everyone keeps making comments about the Rolex market being tanked. Where, I’ll step up for any subs, GMT’S etc. for these rock bottom tanked prices that I don’t see anywhere. Sure, it’s not like it was when it was looney land but nothing is and that was a rare wild time that shouldn’t have happened.

I am just a casual observer of current prices, but did get into Moda to see "real" prices. I am similarly amazed at how if I go to the DSW or Than website, I see prices that for the most part are still way up there. Like SS Daytonas for mid 30s. But if I notice Moda prices for the same models, they are more like low to mid 20s. I guess my point is that gray advertised prices seem somewhat disconnected from the "real" market prices that watches are fetching these days.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

I am just a casual observer of current prices, but did get into Moda to see "real" prices. I am similarly amazed at how if I go to the DSW or Than website, I see prices that for the most part are still way up there. Like SS Daytonas for mid 30s. But if I notice Moda prices for the same models, they are more like low to mid 20s. I guess my point is that gray advertised prices seem somewhat disconnected from the "real" market prices that watches are fetching these days.

They are still trying to maximize profits. Especially from those that are willing to sell at market lows. It used to be that the margins were actually quite thin so they had to move a lot of volume. The last few years changed that in my opinion and they are trying to hang on to it for as long as they can until people figure it out.

[TickTockChuck]

You might want to read this article if you want to get a feel for the pulse of the Swiss Watch industry:
https://monochrome-watches.com/fhs-r...illion-francs/

Basically they had a pretty good year overall, however growth has slowed towards the end of the year. 2024 is expected to have some growth, albeit at a more modest pace due geopolitical and economic factors.

Interestingly the secondary market prices are declining, so maybe some normalization & balance ahead after so much hype, see following excerpt:

"An interesting barometer of the market dynamics, the secondary prices continue to contract. In this respect, Morgan Stanley reports that these were down 13% for 2023, compared to a decline of -9% in 2022 and an increase of +39% in 2021."

Cheers!

[JC316]

Discounts in the not too distant future.

Let's go!

[rushca01]

Whatever prices are in “moda” is vapor ware to me…I can’t get in nor even find the right “moda” group. So whatever pieces sell for there is irrelevant as buying at the AD, I can’t do either.

[Mystro]

Moda is like going to a car auction.. Yea, you can find some stupid low prices on a super car but that doesn’t translate in to what the average market price really is at a dealership or even a private seller. There will always been rock bottom deal sniffers but very few of these bargains hunters are actually buying these deals they like to say is what the market price is.
In a way it’s used to influence the “idea” that these are the true market prices of what you should “expect” to pay for these cars or watches but it’s the difference between whole sale pricing and retail pricing. When you get a clone, rock, or watch with a story to save a few bucks is when reality hits hard.
Your BigMac only cost 41 cents to actually make so you’re a sucker to pay the $4. I’ll just hang outside McDonald’s and wait for a employee to sell me one out the back door for $2.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Moda is like going to a car auction.. Yea, you can find some stupid low prices on a super car but that doesn’t translate in to what the average market price really is at a dealership or even a private seller. There will always been rock bottom deal sniffers but very few of these bargains hunters are actually buying these deals they like to say is what the market price is.
In a way it’s used to influence the “idea” that these are the true market prices of what you should “expect” to pay for these cars or watches but it’s the difference between whole sale pricing and retail pricing. When you get a clone, rock, or watch with a story to save a few bucks is when reality hits hard.
Your BigMac only cost 41 cents to actually make so you’re a sucker to pay the $4. I’ll just hang outside McDonald’s and wait for a employee to sell me one out the back door for $2.

[GGGMT]

Moda


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[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Moda


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I done a ton of deals on moda and made friends on it. What’s the problem in your mind?

[Kevin of Larchmont]

As long as DSW and Than and other greys are selling watches at the prices they are advertising then their prices are “real”.

[gerry100]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

As long as DSW and Than and other greys are selling watches at the prices they are advertising then their prices are “real”.

Are they really selling at advertised prices?

[jfmiii]

Moda is like "wholesale plus." Not retail but not quite wholesale. To people saying it is a clown show in there, it isn't, by and large. I see many of the same TS on TRF selling into Moda. I've seen the same watch listed here and Moda by sellers. The price on Moda is always more attractive. The fact of the matter is, if you call a TS and ask for a watch that they dont have, they are likely going to ask for that watch in a chat that includes a bunch of sellers on Moda. It's like anything else...if you buy on Moda, do your due diligence on the seller but you are likely to pay much less than if buying from a guy like DSW.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Moda is like "wholesale plus." Not retail but not quite wholesale. To people saying it is a clown show in there, it isn't, by and large. I see many of the same TS on TRF selling into Moda. I've seen the same watch listed here and Moda by sellers. The price on Moda is always more attractive. The fact of the matter is, if you call a TS and ask for a watch that they dont have, they are likely going to ask for that watch in a chat that includes a bunch of sellers on Moda. It's like anything else...if you buy on Moda, do your due diligence on the seller but you are likely to pay much less than if buying from a guy like DSW.

Spot on.

Moda is wholesale plus and DavidSW is retail plus.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Moda is like "wholesale plus." Not retail but not quite wholesale. To people saying it is a clown show in there, it isn't, by and large. I see many of the same TS on TRF selling into Moda. I've seen the same watch listed here and Moda by sellers. The price on Moda is always more attractive. The fact of the matter is, if you call a TS and ask for a watch that they dont have, they are likely going to ask for that watch in a chat that includes a bunch of sellers on Moda. It's like anything else...if you buy on Moda, do your due diligence on the seller but you are likely to pay much less than if buying from a guy like DSW.

Echoing all of this. +1

[Gearjockey]

Sorry for the watch trading unfamiliarity here, but is Moda Watch Club on FB the same thing as MODA?

Thanks.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Gearjockey

Sorry for the watch trading unfamiliarity here, but is Moda Watch Club on FB the same thing as MODA?

Thanks.

Yeah. I mean it’s just a Facebook group for selling watches is all. Then there’s about 459 other tertiary groups they’ve created.

[enjoythemusic]

We'll probably hit bottom when Trolling gets even more prevalent here on TRF. It's seems we're getting close, yet note quite there yet imho.