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-   -   Will we Rolex type scarcity (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=830825)

HiBoost 11 December 2021 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie (Post 11839266)
Not at all.

Donít forget, the faux* Rolex scarcity is still in its infancy. 2016/2017 you could get pretty much anything in the states.

*not scarce if products are available in the hundreds on gray market.


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This is a logical fallacy. Products are available via other sellers due to their dramatically increased price. An equilibrium is reached where most of the market cries "uncle" and refuses to pay that, but a few do. It in no way suggests there is actually supply which approaches demand.

Forget about watches, let's consider the release of a new Playstation. In those first weeks, you can't walk into a normal retail store anywhere in America and find one just sitting on the shelves. Yet there are dozens of them on ebay - at 2-3x MSRP. Does that mean this is all fake? Sony is just holding back? Or Bob on ebay actually bought 1M systems and is hoarding them? No, of course not. Demand far exceeds supply, and the few lucky people who did happen to find one at their local Wal-mart are now trying to make a quick buck.

In the Rolex world the demand has continued to build and the supply has not notably increased, so we've been stuck in "Playstation release week" mode for years...

badlarry 11 December 2021 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiBoost (Post 11859523)
This is a logical fallacy. Products are available via other sellers due to their dramatically increased price. An equilibrium is reached where most of the market cries "uncle" and refuses to pay that, but a few do. It in no way suggests there is actually supply which approaches demand.

Forget about watches, let's consider the release of a new Playstation. In those first weeks, you can't walk into a normal retail store anywhere in America and find one just sitting on the shelves. Yet there are dozens of them on ebay - at 2-3x MSRP. Does that mean this is all fake? Sony is just holding back? Or Bob on ebay actually bought 1M systems and is hoarding them? No, of course not. Demand far exceeds supply, and the few lucky people who did happen to find one at their local Wal-mart are now trying to make a quick buck.

In the Rolex world the demand has continued to build and the supply has not notably increased, so we've been stuck in "Playstation release week" mode for years...


I agree with the exception to the play station situation, the Sneaker heads that have all the bots that go online and grab all the new sneaker releases adapted and started doing it with PlayStation and Xbox thatís a huge reason those are so difficult to get.


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HiBoost 11 December 2021 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badlarry (Post 11859554)
I agree with the exception to the play station situation, the Sneaker heads that have all the bots that go online and grab all the new sneaker releases adapted and started doing it with PlayStation and Xbox that’s a huge reason those are so difficult to get.


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Right, the mechanics of how the few "lucky" people get their hands on at item at retail pricing is going to change, but the point is that seeing something "readily available" online does not mean that it's a farce that the store doesn't have one.

Case in point, any day of the week I can "easily" find and purchase a green dial Patek 5711. Of course the price will be 13x MSRP, but that is what it has taken to achieve the equilibrium I mentioned. Every product will be different. Patek pricing makes Daytona pricing seem downright reasonable. But both share the common trait of there not being even remotely as many available as would be bought if all pricing were MSRP - i.e. demand >> supply.

knighty88 11 December 2021 03:36 AM

I hope not, but I think the 'scarcity' is actually down to flipping and greys operating in the middle... if you look around, the 'hot models' can be seen everywhere for inflated prices - so ask yourself if there really is an actual shortage.

So long as the flippers stay away from Omega, no problem :)

Greglaw 11 December 2021 02:25 PM

Yeah...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by John Sheridan (Post 11854490)
455 viewing the Rolex forum right now, 21 viewing Omega, that tells the story, very little hype attached to Omega.

And 440 of the 455 are likely asking or readying about value, investment, and other important watch topics, because of their love for the brand, itís history, and seeking keen insight on all things Rolex...please.

Know1isgod 25 December 2021 05:57 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 1262923

Don't care about hype or whatever. This past summer, depending on what I was doing (and where), I reached for these more often than some of the Rolex pieces I own. I actually traded an older YM 40 Platinum for the White Face 300M AND a Tudor GMT to boot. I pray Omega stays attainable and "under the radar" per se.

7enderbender 26 December 2021 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Plains (Post 11840769)
Omega watches are fantastic but the company lacks the prestige Rolex has, so no.

I donít think that is still true. The quality these days is as good or better and people recognize that. Retail prices have gone up accordingly.

7enderbender 26 December 2021 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knighty88 (Post 11859615)
I hope not, but I think the 'scarcity' is actually down to flipping and greys operating in the middle... if you look around, the 'hot models' can be seen everywhere for inflated prices - so ask yourself if there really is an actual shortage.

So long as the flippers stay away from Omega, no problem :)

I hear that argument here a lot and it doesnít make sense to me. The demand outpacing the supply is real. I donít see what any of this could have to do with flipping. In fact, flippers can only exist on the above scenario, but not create it.
Rolex cannot and will not reasonably increase supply. I donít think thatís possible or a wise decision with regards to actual and perceived quality. Or as simple as not having enough qualified staff (just like most industries at the moment).
People can and do sell their new watches at a premium to people who want them even more. What this really shows is that Rolex retail prices are way too low. Now would it be a good long-term idea to bring prices up to a level that meats the demand? Probably not.

I was looking for charts yesterday and havenít found them yet on price development of key Omega and Rolex models over time. Couldnít find them yet.
All I know is that I just paid last yearís retail price for a used Speedmaster 1861 (discontinued). And I was thrilled because I had prepared myself for having to pay more for a pristine specimen. The new model is now way over 6K for a watch that was half that or less not all too long ago.


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