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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

77T 21 March 2020 05:19 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by uscmatt99 (Post 10471667)
You need to remember that in situations where we are only testing symptomatic and hospitalized patients, the current numbers reflect the state of play 1-2 weeks ago, and are not a current snapshot. If we were blindly testing large numbers of people regardless of symptoms, we would have a better handle on current numbers of asymptomatically infected people. We will see in another 2 weeks if the efforts of social distancing and such have paid dividends.



I agree it is too soon to know. We discuss COVID-19 and may solve it.

But that doesnít necessarily guarantee people who survive it will gain immunity from COVID-20, COVID-21 or any further generations of mutations.

The choice that seems prudent to me is flatten the curve now to preserve life at the expense of financial turmoil. There is a chance for efficacious therapies.

If we buy into the other option, we sacrifice many more lives in the short-run presuming nothing will arise to fight COVID-19.

Policy makers arenít wired that way methinks.


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superdog 21 March 2020 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chappuy1750 (Post 10471720)
3M has announced that it has doubled production of N95 masks to 100 million per month and expects to produce 1.1 billlion annually up from 400 million. I think this is a tangible example of how reducing the load on the healthcare system (in this case through lockdowns) gives the market a chance to catch up.

Agreed.

Makes sense.

904VT 21 March 2020 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seibei (Post 10471721)
This is what a "lock down" looks like. This image from just a few minutes ago, flights coming and going from all over the world.

https://i.postimg.cc/hv8jXcvT/AAAAC.jpg

What proportion of those flights are shipping cargo, suppliers and trade? I'd also, be curious for fairness to see what the other countries with similar issues flight paths look like right now. I imagine very similar.

chappuy1750 21 March 2020 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10471753)
Agreed.

Makes sense.

Those who look to the future will thrive.

Moggo 21 March 2020 05:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10471523)
Have you got more on this? I have many prescriptions and have not heard anything about it. I normally collect mine but will get the Boots Chemist delivery service.

You have me worried now. Where did you get this info please?


Seeing the queues while out (in the car, not socialising). This is in Cardiff though, also neighbours have been to our local GPs and prescriptions not ready for many due to demand.

Iím guessing somewhere more rural as you are should have less demand so should be different.


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YUL 21 March 2020 05:41 AM

Challenging times for aviation, however critical to maintain the supply chain for medical equipment and medicines. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...b19eb8bdf0.jpg


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Seibei 21 March 2020 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 904VT (Post 10471756)
What proportion of those flights are shipping cargo, suppliers and trade? I'd also, be curious for fairness to see what the other countries with similar issues flight paths look like right now. I imagine very similar.

Not sure, but some are definitely passenger flights. The way things are now it no longer seems that important. The time to close international travel seems to have passed, since the situation in one country is pretty much as bad as the next. No point in closing borders any more.

daveathall 21 March 2020 05:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10471774)
Seeing the queues while out (in the car, not socialising). This is in Cardiff though, also neighbours have been to our local GPs and prescriptions not ready for many due to demand.

I’m guessing somewhere more rural as you are should have less demand so should be different.


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I could not find anywhere on the news, Google or newspaper that mention this. I actually live close to a town and many cities, this is the first I have heard. I dont understand your comment on "Demand" are you saying that there have been a run on pharmaceutical drugs? I can only get my prescriptions when due, I cant order them earlier than they are due. I would suggest that fewer people have been to doctors surgeries due to Coronavirus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10471515)
I feel your pain, in the U.K. it’s similar, huge queues and prescriptions not fulfilled.

You saw huge queues in Cardiff waiting for prescriptions and something your neighbours mentioned? That adds up to "It's similar in the UK" does it?

You ever wonder why people "panic buy" in supermarkets?

Seibei 21 March 2020 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10471801)
You ever wonder why people "panic buy" in supermarkets?

Panic buying happens because of panic buying. If people see empty shelves and other people panic buying they will naturally hoard goods themselves when they can.

Patton250 21 March 2020 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10471732)
I agree it is too soon to know. We discuss COVID-19 and may solve it.

But that doesnít necessarily guarantee people who survive it will gain immunity from COVID-20, COVID-21 or any further generations of mutations.

The choice that seems prudent to me is flatten the curve now to preserve life at the expense of financial turmoil. There is a chance for efficacious therapies.

If we buy into the other option, we sacrifice many more lives in the short-run presuming nothing will arise to fight COVID-19.

Policy makers arenít wired that way methinks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I really donít think we are fully grasping what a 40 to 50% unemployment will look like over the course of 3 to 6 months. And actually it will probably be more than that. And for the most part it will be irreversible at that point. Not all of it but most of it. I canít speak for other countries but no one in the history of the United States has ever seen anything like that. The federal government can send out all the $1000 checks they want but when printed money causes inflation it will make a gallon of milk $20 then $1000 wonít go very far. Plus they canít send out $1000 twice a month. Can they?

Iím wondering do you think that 180 million Americans are just going to sit home and not eat? Most of those people have children you know? Staying home from school and not eating are two different things. At some point the repo man will come take their car and the landlord will try to get them evicted. Itís well-known that over half the people of United States live week to week. That means next week alone half of America will be out of money. Iím just wondering what you think those people are going to do at that point? Iíd really like to get peoples opinions on that.

Now if all you are suggesting is that we stay home for two weeks, one week having been almost done, then thatís different. We can survive that. Thereís still plenty of damage that has already been done but I bet we can reverse 50% of that. However I have not heard anyone give it a timeframe and how long they want to lock everything down. Iíve heard some governors say a month. If you force a large portion of the population to stay home, not earn/collect money and therefore not be able to feed their family you are going to see riots in the streets, invasions of grocery stores, pharmacies and other private property and general chaos amongst the populace. That could quickly become worse than any pandemic caused by a virus.

Zakalwe 21 March 2020 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10471801)
I can only get my prescriptions when due, I cant order them earlier than they are due. I would suggest that fewer people have been to doctors surgeries due to Coronavirus.

Fewer people are coming into surgeries - because weíre stopping them - but patient contacts are higher, via the phone or video call.

We have been given guidance to not give any more than three months worth of any repeat drug at a time because people are either trying to order more or are ordering early with a view to hoarding. Furthermore people are asking for paracetamol on prescription in droves because they canít get it off the shelf.

Random aside, shares in whoever makes Ventolin must be bucking the general trend :chuckle:

daveathall 21 March 2020 06:01 AM

.

daveathall 21 March 2020 06:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10471823)
Fewer people are coming into surgeries - because weíre stopping them - but patient contacts are higher, via the phone or video call.

We have been given guidance to not give any more than three months worth of any repeat drug at a time because people are either trying to order more or are ordering early with a view to hoarding. Furthermore people are asking for paracetamol on prescription in droves because they canít get it off the shelf.

Have you seen large queues for prescriptions Sal?

Moggo 21 March 2020 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10471801)
I could not find anywhere on the news, Google or newspaper that mention this. I actually live close to a town and many cities, this is the first I have heard. I dont understand your comment on "Demand" are you saying that there have been a run on pharmaceutical drugs? I can only get my prescriptions when due, I cant order them earlier than they are due. I would suggest that fewer people have been to doctors surgeries due to Coronavirus.



You saw huge queues in Cardiff waiting for prescriptions and something your neighbours mentioned? That adds up to "It's similar in the UK" does it?

You ever wonder why people "panic buy" in supermarkets?



My observations! Have you been out or just googled it?!

Check Twitter, GPS are down on numbers as are pharmacists due to self-isolation. My sisters partner is a pharmacist.

Iím far from encouraging panic buying, I require a fair amount of medication as do my parents, so give over on the rudeness.

Iím just going to ignore this and assume itís stress.


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Zakalwe 21 March 2020 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10471833)
Have you seen large queues for prescriptions Sal?

I’m stuck at home doing telephone consultations Dave. I’ve seen large quantities of sh***y nappies and not a great deal else :chuckle:

Hollie_Rollie 21 March 2020 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gmh1013 (Post 10471493)
What about people like me that have to get drugs for diabetes, high BP and heart medications? Im running out in several days and worried sick over getting refills....my doctor office is closed. WTH I left 2 messages and nobody returns my calls.....


Call your insurance company. If your pharmacy can get your refills from the doctor your insurance company will override so you can get 3 months worth, early refills etc...very lenient right now. Some insurances are even covering meds early without even the patient having to call. Pharmacist can put in an override code

daveathall 21 March 2020 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10471838)
My observations! Have you been out or just googled it?!

Check Twitter, GPS are down on numbers as are pharmacists due to self-isolation. My sisters partner is a pharmacist.

I’m far from encouraging panic buying, I require a fair amount of medication as do my parents, so give over on the rudeness.

I’m just going to ignore this and assume it’s stress.


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I don't think I have been rude if it seems that I have, I apologise.

I have not been out.

What I am trying to establish, is there a concern that prescription drugs are going to run out or there could be a shortage? Your post implied that there was.

That is worrying for me and could cause me stress if it was a national phenomenon rather than a localised problem.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10471847)
I’m stuck at home doing telephone consultations Dave. I’ve seen large quantities of sh***y nappies and not a great deal else :chuckle:

Ahh, sorry Sal, hope all is going well for you.

rowdy3 21 March 2020 06:19 AM

Florida has banned eating inside restaurants a few hours ago. They were allowed to be open with 50% capacity.

77T 21 March 2020 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10471817)
I really donít think we are fully grasping what a 40 to 50% unemployment will look like over the course of 3 to 6 months. And actually it will probably be more than that. And for the most part it will be irreversible at that point. Not all of it but most of it. I canít speak for other countries but no one in the history of the United States has ever seen anything like that. The federal government can send out all the $1000 checks they want but when printed money causes inflation it will make a gallon of milk $20 then $1000 wonít go very far. Plus they canít send out $1000 twice a month. Can they?



Iím wondering do you think that 180 million Americans are just going to sit home and not eat? Most of those people have children you know? Staying home from school and not eating are two different things. At some point the repo man will come take their car and the landlord will try to get them evicted. Itís well-known that over half the people of United States live week to week. That means next week alone half of America will be out of money. Iím just wondering what you think those people are going to do at that point? Iíd really like to get peoples opinions on that.



Now if all you are suggesting is that we stay home for two weeks, one week having been almost done, then thatís different. We can survive that. Thereís still plenty of damage that has already been done but I bet we can reverse 50% of that. However I have not heard anyone give it a timeframe and how long they want to lock everything down. Iíve heard some governors say a month. If you force a large portion of the population to stay home, not earn/collect money and therefore not be able to feed their family you are going to see riots in the streets, invasions of grocery stores, pharmacies and other private property and general chaos amongst the populace. That could quickly become worse than any pandemic caused by a virus.



Not suggesting anything. Have only expressed an opinion of what I believe policy makers may choose to do for the long run.

People have been discussing options that have perhaps a dozen unknown and unintended consequences. Some include the questions you asked. Some are unanswerable with any fidelity due to missing data.

But if the choice is the red curve vs. the blue curve.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...01f10195c5.jpg

It appears US policy is the blue curve.

We can reasonably surmise the red curve has more deaths in a shorter period of time due to lack of medical capacity and no current therapies.

The red one is the curve that I donít think policy makers will choose.


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Patton250 21 March 2020 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10471838)
My observations! Have you been out or just googled it?!

Check Twitter, GPS are down on numbers as are pharmacists due to self-isolation. My sisters partner is a pharmacist.

Iím far from encouraging panic buying, I require a fair amount of medication as do my parents, so give over on the rudeness.

Iím just going to ignore this and assume itís stress.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I donít think Dave was being rude. He is just concerned about his prescriptions and understandably so. He was also just asking you to clarify. Itís all good man.

Hollie_Rollie 21 March 2020 06:22 AM

I saw some questions about drugs being on backorder. Ventolin, and itís generics are on back order. Plaquenil is on back order. Tessalon perles are on back order. To my knowledge all cough syrups are on back order(especially promethazine w codeine). Not sure what weíre going to use to battle the respiratory symptoms

Letsgodiving 21 March 2020 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch (Post 10471468)
Contrarian perspective. Carry on as normal, do nothing, let it pass through the population as quickly as possible. Short term disruption. But, back to normal as soon as possible. And, the economy keeps on rolling with only a minor hiccup.

Whatís currently going on feels like death by a thousand cuts ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10471473)
This is part of my struggle.

I see the logic behind this. Itís not very warm and fuzzy, but neither is the potential global economic depression.


I think as this thing progresses and the economic situation becomes more dire many people will start having these struggles and if our measures up to that point haven't reigned this virus in that may give pols the cover they need to make the hard decisions that may be inevitable anyway.

chappuy1750 21 March 2020 06:23 AM

Illinois is locking down tomorrow.

Patton250 21 March 2020 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10471879)
Not suggesting anything. Have only expressed an opinion of what I believe policy makers may choose to do for the long run.

People have been discussing options that have perhaps a dozen unknown and unintended consequences. Some include the questions you asked. Some are unanswerable with any fidelity due to missing data.

But if the choice is the red curve vs. the blue curve.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...01f10195c5.jpg

It appears US policy is the blue curve.

We can reasonably surmise the red curve has more deaths in a shorter period of time due to lack of medical capacity and no current therapies.

The red one is the curve that I donít think policy makers will choose.


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I understand my friend. Iíve seen that chart many times and I agree with you that the blue appears to be US policy. However no one is answering how long. No one is talking about the economic destruction and the social calamities that will cause.

:cheers:

Justinmg 21 March 2020 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 12Relojes (Post 10471638)
My agenda is to save lives. That is done by listening to a virologist during a pandemic.

Right...

Moggo 21 March 2020 06:24 AM

Dave, I donít think they are going to run out and I never said that anywhere.

I believe from what I have read, seen and been told that the service is slower as present as GPs are not immune to COVID-19 and neither are pharmacists so lack of staff/reduced capacity is causing delays.

I sincerely hope you get your prescriptions without problem.

I at no point tried to invoke panic buying or hoarding but being realistic there are bound to be delays (not shortages).

Most chemists have one pharmacist and they are party to the same isolation rules if symptomatic like the rest of us due to our lack of testing key workers.


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daveathall 21 March 2020 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10471903)
Dave, I donít think they are going to run out and I never said that anywhere.

I believe from what I have read, seen and been told that the service is slower as present as GPs are not immune to COVID-19 and neither are pharmacists so lack of staff/reduced capacity is causing delays.

I sincerely hope you get your prescriptions without problem.

I at no point tried to invoke panic buying or hoarding but being realistic there are bound to be delays (not shortages).

Most chemists have one pharmacist and they are party to the same isolation rules if symptomatic like the rest of us due to our lack of testing key workers.

Yes, I think those are fair points, especially the one about enforced, reduced staff, I must admit, I never thought of that and it could cause delays in certain dispensaries. Yes, that is a fair one, I stand corrected.:cheers::cheers:

Moggo 21 March 2020 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10471919)
Yes, I think those are fair points, especially the one about enforced, reduced staff, I must admit, I never thought of that and it could cause delays in certain dispensaries. Yes, that is a fair one, I stand corrected.:cheers::cheers:


I understand I may have concerned you, not my intention.

Itís really not my style to create panic, Iím in a big enough panic as it is! [emoji23]

Maybe just make sure you request it a few days earlier than you usually would, unlike my father who regularly says ĎI need my prescription.í ĎOk when do you run out Dad?í, ĎTodayí [emoji85]


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12Relojes 21 March 2020 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seibei (Post 10471721)
This is what a "lock down" looks like. This image from just a few minutes ago, flights coming and going from all over the world.

https://i.postimg.cc/hv8jXcvT/AAAAC.jpg

Looks like the most ridiculous thing in the world!

dimag333 21 March 2020 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seibei (Post 10471790)
Not sure, but some are definitely passenger flights. The way things are now it no longer seems that important. The time to close international travel seems to have passed, since the situation in one country is pretty much as bad as the next. No point in closing borders any more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 12Relojes (Post 10471931)
Looks like the most ridiculous thing in the world!

There no context to this, how do we know that a third of these planes aren’t supplies for ventilators or somethjng? We don’t, even though they Probaly are not, there just plain and simple is very little context here

steve


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