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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

Brenngun 21 March 2020 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10471900)
I understand my friend. I’ve seen that chart many times and I agree with you that the blue appears to be US policy. However no one is answering how long. No one is talking about the economic destruction and the social calamities that will cause.

:cheers:

Brett. I think you already know there's no specific answer to your "how long" question. We're in uncharted waters and the best we can do is try to mitigate the problem as much as possible.

Ultimately after a short shut down we'll likely end up with a group who can go out to normal life still following some precautions and a group that has to wait longer before going back out. Of course the pace for us to produce a medicinal aid will change all of this. After that there may be a group that never return to normal life for a number of reasons.

How does this affect everyone's safety and security? How does the population in general react to it all? Another big unknown but we're about to find out. The only known result with respect to all of this is that if the drum beat of panic continues to increase the result will be chaos.

"We all have our hands on the drum sticks"!!!

c41006 21 March 2020 07:07 AM

Anyone else thinking that the US might end up being the world leader in total number of cases by the time this thing is all over with?

Dawg2 21 March 2020 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c41006 (Post 10471977)
Anyone else thinking that the US might end up being the world leader in total number of cases by the time this thing is all over with?

Yes.

mountainjogger 21 March 2020 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c41006 (Post 10471977)
Anyone else thinking that the US might end up being the world leader in total number of cases by the time this thing is all over with?

If we don't stop half measures, I see the possibility.

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

Patton250 21 March 2020 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brenngun (Post 10471967)
Brett. I think you already know there's no specific answer to your "how long" question. We're in uncharted waters and the best we can do is try to mitigate the problem as much as possible.

Ultimately after a short shut down we'll likely end up with a group who can go out to normal life still following some precautions and a group that has to wait longer before going back out. Of course the pace for us to produce a medicinal aid will change all of this. After that there may be a group that never return to normal life for a number of reasons.

How does this affect everyone's safety and security? How does the population in general react to it all? Another big unknown but we're about to find out. The only known result with respect to all of this is that if the drum beat of panic continues to increase the result will be chaos.

"We all have our hands on the drum sticks"!!!

I really havenít seen any panic firsthand yet. As far as people buying things like food and toilet paper I see that every year with hurricane season locally. Itís smart for people to do that just to make sure they have enough to stay home for a couple weeks. All the grocery stores here in the Tampa area are pretty much caught up and you can buy almost anything you need with the exception of toilet paper and hand sanitizer. I still donít understand the toilet paper thing. The hand sanitizer thing I get but toilet paper? Anyway people still have money right now. We wonít see real panic until peoples bank accounts are empty. :cheers:

Dawg2 21 March 2020 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10471993)
I really havenít seen any panic firsthand yet. As far as people buying things like food and toilet paper I see that every year with hurricane season locally. Itís smart for people to do that just to make sure they have enough to stay home for a couple weeks. All the grocery stores here in the Tampa area are pretty much caught up and you can buy almost anything you need with the exception of toilet paper and hand sanitizer. I still donít understand the toilet paper thing. The hand sanitizer thing I get but toilet paper? Anyway people still have money right now. We wonít see real panic until peoples bank accounts are empty. :cheers:

Correct. They still have money. They still have cars / houses / apartments / food. As jobs dry up, money runs out, they are out of food, a place to live, etc. It will get bad. Hopefully we can get this under control...quickly.

904VT 21 March 2020 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 12Relojes (Post 10471559)
When a virologist who identified the virus that causes HIV tells you to be cautious about using hydroxychloroquine without knowing more about how to use it, and a construction contractor refutes by him by saying he's got a good feeling about this drug, listen to the virologist.

As Justin mentions below, read forum rules :read:

Completely unnecessary and quite honest not very fair to the context of this discussion.

Dr. Fauci and other experts have for years discussed the importance of reducing stress, depression, and anxiety in an effort to improve immunity function in an holistic, multi-prong approach to building immunity strength and the importance of doing so in protection from disease. Part of that is in fact keeping calm among the population. The honest truth, that there has never been a successful and safe vaccine brought to market for any of the 7 coronaviruses that infect humans if focused on would cause undue panic if constantly discussed in media. Remember the old no cure for the common cold line, it has relevance for the ARS causing coronaviruses as well (SARS-COV-1, MERS, SARS-COV-2). The social-economic impact would be too great to bear without a slow-drip of hope of a cure. And perhaps we'll get there, but right now we're looking at treatment options, not cures/vaccines unless we have the equivalent advancement of what Penicillin was to bacteria for the coronavirus family of pathogens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justinmg (Post 10471601)
You don’t have an agenda and that’s not political at all :dummy: :banghead:
Read the rules before you post!


Patton250 21 March 2020 07:38 AM

I just found out something interesting today. My wife is a scientist at a university here in Florida. They mostly do research around pregnancy. However their lab change directions today and made 100 tests for coronavirus. I bet many other labs are doing that around the country as well.

mountainjogger 21 March 2020 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10471817)
I really donít think we are fully grasping what a 40 to 50% unemployment will look like over the course of 3 to 6 months. And actually it will probably be more than that. And for the most part it will be irreversible at that point. Not all of it but most of it. I canít speak for other countries but no one in the history of the United States has ever seen anything like that. The federal government can send out all the $1000 checks they want but when printed money causes inflation it will make a gallon of milk $20 then $1000 wonít go very far. Plus they canít send out $1000 twice a month. Can they?

Iím wondering do you think that 180 million Americans are just going to sit home and not eat? Most of those people have children you know? Staying home from school and not eating are two different things. At some point the repo man will come take their car and the landlord will try to get them evicted. Itís well-known that over half the people of United States live week to week. That means next week alone half of America will be out of money. Iím just wondering what you think those people are going to do at that point? Iíd really like to get peoples opinions on that.

Now if all you are suggesting is that we stay home for two weeks, one week having been almost done, then thatís different. We can survive that. Thereís still plenty of damage that has already been done but I bet we can reverse 50% of that. However I have not heard anyone give it a timeframe and how long they want to lock everything down. Iíve heard some governors say a month. If you force a large portion of the population to stay home, not earn/collect money and therefore not be able to feed their family you are going to see riots in the streets, invasions of grocery stores, pharmacies and other private property and general chaos amongst the populace. That could quickly become worse than any pandemic caused by a virus.

Brett:

I have to disagree with you on one point.

In my opinion one week of everyone staying home in the US has not almost been done. And As we speak, we have still not reached that point. The states that have just instituted shelter orders have done so in large part because up till now a lot of people have not been complying with social distancing.

Here is the picture I have seen in my state:

On Sunday, a church across the street from my farm held Sunday morning services as usual. Sunday evening the church proceeded with the first night of its yearly revival - inside the church. Attendance looked to be down, but still a lot of people. It was not until the local news paper came out with its first and thankfully strong mention of Covid-19 on Monday that the remaining 2 days of the revival were cancelled.

On Tuesday, a friend of mine shut down his business for the afternoon, routed his calls to a bar, and took his staff to the bar for a corona party which lasted until the bar was shut down by mandate at 5:00 pm. Otherwise great guy, but he does not get it. He is starting to get it today, but has not implemented social distancing at his place of business.

On Wednesday, I had an unavoidable trip to take my wife to meet professionally with front line medical providers on a legal matter that has not been suspended. 40 minute trip each way. Traffic was little different on major roads. True, people were not eating inside restraints (because the Governor has prohibited it) but the lines at fast food were phenomenal.

Yesterday, and today, people I know are still making non essential trips. And some businesses are still working with no attempt at social distancing.

There has been progress in NC but not as much as there needs to be. And from what I have read, it is similar in many places where the gov. has not ordered shelter in place.

I agree that the wise course would be to shut everything non essential down for two weeks, increase testing and then reassess. But first we have to shut everything down everywhere in the US (except food, deliveries, meds, etc).

We are making progress. But we are not there yet. Will it be enough?

Stay safe my friend.:thumbsup:

chappuy1750 21 March 2020 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10472033)
I just found out something interesting today. My wife is a scientist at a university here in Florida. They mostly do research around pregnancy. However their lab change directions today and made 100 tests for coronavirus. I bet many other labs are doing that around the country as well.

This is fantastic to hear! This is why I believe a "pause" will work - how long depends on how quickly the market can adjust to address the new demand, whether it is test capacity, masks, purell or ventilators.

Seibei 21 March 2020 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10472055)

We are making progress. But we are not there yet. Will it be enough?

Stay safe my friend.:thumbsup:

Enough for what exactly? The irresponsible and selfish behavior you just described is probably quite widespread, or has been up to a few days ago. That is really very bad news for vulnerable members of society.

On the other hand, for the vast majority of people this virus is fortunately no worse than a bad flu.

Perhaps authorities need to focus more now on saving the economy. The measures taken to stop the virus seem to be too little too late in most countries. Closing borders is pointless when your country is as bad as the next. As someone has already suggested in this thread, perhaps it would be best to let this go and for the crisis to be over sooner rather than later.

mountainjogger 21 March 2020 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seibei (Post 10472077)
Enough for what exactly? The irresponsible and selfish behavior you just described is probably quite widespread, or has been up to a few days ago. That is really very bad news for vulnerable members of society.

On the other hand, for the vast majority of people this virus is fortunately no worse than a bad flu.

Perhaps authorities need to focus more now on saving the economy. The measures taken to stop the virus seem to be too little too late in most countries. Closing borders is pointless when your country is as bad as the next. As someone has already suggested in this thread, perhaps it would be best to let this go and for the crisis to be over sooner rather than later.

Enough to flatten the curve.

And it may not just be vulnerable members of our community. Many mortality projections are predicated on a significant number of those who are not in vulnerable demographics being able to get some supportive care. Without that, we really have not clue.

Dubshack 21 March 2020 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10471817)
I really donít think we are fully grasping what a 40 to 50% unemployment will look like over the course of 3 to 6 months. And actually it will probably be more than that. And for the most part it will be irreversible at that point. Not all of it but most of it. I canít speak for other countries but no one in the history of the United States has ever seen anything like that. The federal government can send out all the $1000 checks they want but when printed money causes inflation it will make a gallon of milk $20 then $1000 wonít go very far. Plus they canít send out $1000 twice a month. Can they?

Iím wondering do you think that 180 million Americans are just going to sit home and not eat? Most of those people have children you know? Staying home from school and not eating are two different things. At some point the repo man will come take their car and the landlord will try to get them evicted. Itís well-known that over half the people of United States live week to week. That means next week alone half of America will be out of money. Iím just wondering what you think those people are going to do at that point? Iíd really like to get peoples opinions on that.

Now if all you are suggesting is that we stay home for two weeks, one week having been almost done, then thatís different. We can survive that. Thereís still plenty of damage that has already been done but I bet we can reverse 50% of that. However I have not heard anyone give it a timeframe and how long they want to lock everything down. Iíve heard some governors say a month. If you force a large portion of the population to stay home, not earn/collect money and therefore not be able to feed their family you are going to see riots in the streets, invasions of grocery stores, pharmacies and other private property and general chaos amongst the populace. That could quickly become worse than any pandemic caused by a virus.


This is my biggest concern. A lot of people will not have the means to ride out a month, let alone a few months, of no income. There is going to have to be massive intervention by federal government to either supply those workers income during the gap they cannot work or put a freeze on banks/landlords for collecting mortgages/rent.

If not, then the government better let go of the reigns and let people keep going about their business, but be prepared for the shock to the healthcare system.


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Recondope 21 March 2020 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c41006 (Post 10471977)
Anyone else thinking that the US might end up being the world leader in total number of cases by the time this thing is all over with?

Sadly from what I have been witnessing, yes. Despite being on "shelter in place" orders while out on a trip to get my 76 year old Fathers medications there are numerous people out and about. I even saw a group of about fifteen to twenty people playing soccer at the local high school. Seems that many folks are not taking the recommendations seriously.
edit:sentence structure

Moggo 21 March 2020 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dubshack (Post 10472113)
This is my biggest concern. A lot of people will not have the means to ride out a month, let alone a few months, of no income. There is going to have to be massive intervention by federal government to either supply those workers income during the gap they cannot work or put a freeze on banks/landlords for collecting mortgages/rent.

If not, then the government better let go of the reigns and let people keep going about their business, but be prepared for the shock to the healthcare system.


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The U.K. government has finally stepped up to sort this for us. 80% of salary paid for next 3 months I believe.


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Fleetlord 21 March 2020 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c41006 (Post 10471977)
Anyone else thinking that the US might end up being the world leader in total number of cases by the time this thing is all over with?

Stepping aside from the horrible human toll that would entail, the geopolitical ramifications of that happening are almost inconceivable.

The worldís eyes are already seeming to shift eastward for guidance and leadership. A 21st century Paradigm shift in power and influence could be happening over some very unruly microbes..

Seibei 21 March 2020 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10472150)
Stepping aside from the horrible human toll that would entail, the geopolitical ramifications of that happening are almost inconceivable.

The worldís eyes are already seeming to shift eastward for guidance and leadership. A 21st century Paradigm shift in power and influence could be happening over some very unruly microbes..

If you ask me, then the place to look for guidance and a good example is Singapore.

77T 21 March 2020 08:55 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10472092)
Enough to flatten the curve.



And it may not just be vulnerable members of our community. Many mortality projections are predicated on a significant number of those who are not in vulnerable demographics being able to get some supportive care. Without that, we really have not clue.


And I think that first sentence is the corollary answer to how long the official isolation requests and orders will remain in place.

Currently they are adapted to each State/Community. I donít expect a National lockdown unless something becomes seriously derailed.


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Uggi 21 March 2020 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10472150)
Stepping aside from the horrible human toll that would entail, the geopolitical ramifications of that happening are almost inconceivable.

The worldís eyes are already seeming to shift eastward for guidance and leadership. A 21st century Paradigm shift in power and influence could be happening over some very unruly microbes..

Yes I agree. On this particular issue Eastern regimes have taught us lot a lesson. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and even China are all leading the way and Western regimes are not covering themselves in glory by comparison. Once this has settled they may well be in a much better position than any of the Western powers.

c41006 21 March 2020 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10472150)
Stepping aside from the horrible human toll that would entail, the geopolitical ramifications of that happening are almost inconceivable.



The worldís eyes are already seeming to shift eastward for guidance and leadership. A 21st century Paradigm shift in power and influence could be happening over some very unruly microbes..



It certainly feels like we might be headed that way. We are already over 15,000 confirmed cases and we are well behind in testing. On top of that people are absolutely not taking this seriously.

Star Ferry 21 March 2020 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10472150)
Stepping aside from the horrible human toll that would entail, the geopolitical ramifications of that happening are almost inconceivable.

The worldís eyes are already seeming to shift eastward for guidance and leadership. A 21st century Paradigm shift in power and influence could be happening over some very unruly microbes..

In other words, fighting covid-19 is now a competition, with political power and credibility hanging in the balance.

Burlington 21 March 2020 09:07 AM

Just heard about two confirmed cases in a nearby house.

Suppose it had to reach the doorstep eventually.

mountainjogger 21 March 2020 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c41006 (Post 10472198)
It certainly feels like we might be headed that way. We are already over 15,000 confirmed cases and we are well behind in testing. On top of that people are absolutely not taking this seriously.

Well, despite the tone of some of my posts, I am encouraged that some seem to be coming around.

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

GB-man 21 March 2020 09:11 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Uggi (Post 10472188)
Yes I agree. On this particular issue Eastern regimes have taught us lot a lesson. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and even China are all leading the way and Western regimes are not covering themselves in glory by comparison. Once this has settled they may well be in a much better position than any of the Western powers.


Hard to imagine the source of the problem coming out of this looking like a shining star. I applaud SK and SG and Taiwan though.

77T 21 March 2020 09:12 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Burlington (Post 10472205)
Just heard about two confirmed cases in a nearby house.

Suppose it had to reach the doorstep eventually.



Confirmed COVID-19 disease?
Or was it confirmed as coronavirus positive?


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Fleetlord 21 March 2020 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Star Ferry (Post 10472204)
In other words, fighting covid-19 is now a competition, with political power and credibility hanging in the balance.

Unfortunately it will be inevitably viewed that way in certain circles.

Uggi 21 March 2020 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man (Post 10472219)
Hard to imagine the source of the problem coming out of this looking like a shining star. I applaud SK and SG and Taiwan though.

Take your point but the origin is often lost in the endgame.

joeychitwood 21 March 2020 09:23 AM

There are discussions in the region about calling retired nurses, doctors and medical therapists to volunteer their expertise if the crush in hospitals becomes too great to manage, the idea being that even diminished knowledge and skills are better than none. If someone had brought this up in a discussion two months ago, we all would have laughed.

Burlington 21 March 2020 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10472221)
Confirmed COVID-19 disease?
Or was it confirmed as coronavirus positive?


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Coronavirus infection & symptoms resulting from that.

Confined via testing, not self diagnosis.

We are pretty remote here, Iím surprised itís reached us this fast although of course the virus doesnít respect geography !

The speed this thing has replicated itself across the globe is quite incredible.

77T 21 March 2020 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10472231)
Unfortunately it will be inevitably viewed that way in certain circles.



In that vein of a competition for a cure...I was reminded of a very old text.

ďThe extent to which that competition is carried, whether by intensity or sophistication, determines the degree of complexity of the necessary laws; and the extent to which those laws are willingly accepted determines, no less, the degree of civilization of that society.Ē

Translated from Thales of Miletus,
circa 600 BC.

Thales was a Greek mathematician and astronomer. But his ability to observe the natural world informed his later role as a philosopher. This was before Socrates taught us how to think.

But I digress...healthy competition can lead to innovative breakthroughs. Sharing discoveries is a great help to generate the best vaccine and antiviral therapies targeting coronavirus.


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