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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

daveathall 22 March 2020 10:28 PM

Main road (A170) Thirsk to Scarborough, just outside my house, normally quite busy when I took this early evening yesterday.

http://i.imgur.com/OFJByi5.mp4

Everyone's gone to the Moon.



BigBlue1 22 March 2020 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runnin' Rebel (Post 10475646)
Debacle? Itís wiping out a whole generation of Italian elders, Iran is crippled under sanctions, New York and California are pretty much locked down.,and canít get what they need. And screw economics at this point. The U.S. needs a complete quarantine. No flights or any kind of travel. Itís spreading like a wild brush fire. Everyone is frustrated.. especially when one of your family or yourself needs a ventilation machine or vaccine.

Jesus, some you are worried about the stock market and your next watch purchase. And if your business survives.

Grow the hell up.

If it hits the US like Italy we are done
for years perhaps. Letís all pray that they find a vaccine quickly,

Just stop and think. No one here is immune to this debacle

Who in this thread was worried about their next watch purchase? I missed that. Stock market and business I can understand even though as a comparison to life is irrelevant, but worrying about a watch, C'mon.

Moggo 22 March 2020 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10475959)
I think this is what will bring each of us home to sobering news one day. It is inevitable that we will be touched by the ď7 degrees of Corona VirusĒ.

I hope your sisterís aunt (Iím guessing a blended family or thatíd be your aunt, too) is handling the grieving. It is harder if she is not able to attend the services.

Loss, and itís attendant demon, fear of loss, is sweeping our blue marble.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...65da1e8a72.jpg

It looks so peaceful from any casual observer in outer space.

I sense turbulence has reached many TRFíers; frustration levels are elevated as the discussion is becoming a little overheated.

Hope you all are well yourselves, as well as your family, and those in your 7 degrees of CV this Sunday.





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My sisters work colleagues aunt so no direct link to us but still close to home.

In Wales so we a small country anyway.

Thank you for your thoughts [emoji1317]


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77T 22 March 2020 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10475974)
My sisters work colleagues aunt so no direct link to us but still close to home.

In Wales so we a small country anyway.

Thank you for your thoughts [emoji1317]


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Ahhhh thanks.
I misconstructed, erfyn ar eich pardwn
:cheers:


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Moggo 22 March 2020 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10476007)
Ahhhh thanks.
I misconstructed, erfyn ar eich pardwn
:cheers:


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Nice Welsh [emoji1303]


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Brew 22 March 2020 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10475936)
Sorry if I misinterpreted.

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

No worries, friend. I should have realized using "just" and "flu" in the same sentence might not get across the point I was trying to make:

I'm afraid this is "just" another shot across humanity's bow . . . .

Yes, stay safe. :cheers:

Patton250 22 March 2020 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10475960)
Main road (A170) Thirsk to Scarborough, just outside my house, normally quite busy when I took this early evening yesterday.

http://i.imgur.com/OFJByi5.mp4

Everyone's gone to the Moon.



Beautiful houses Dave. Lovely neighborhood. I look forward to another picture from you in the near future with that street filled with happy relived people. :cheers:

RWH 22 March 2020 11:26 PM

Some good news is that the US is finally starting to pull together and taking the right steps. Testing has been increasing exponentially as we pass the 100,000 mark. Widespread testing is going to be very critical in not only reducing the number of spread but also is making the "invisible enemy" more visible thus reducing panic

BigBlue1 22 March 2020 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meloncap78 (Post 10475562)
Frankly, Iím tired of the whole debacle. I donít understand the need for multiple family packs of TP as if being stuck in your house for a year is a real possibility. The media is treating this whole thing as if it could wipe out humanity. Not gonna happen. Yes the situation is bad, more so on the economic end of the stick. I have shut some of my friends and family out for being ultimate fear mongers. This will not reach the level of the pestilence. Not even close, that I can guarantee. I am not here to make light, just frustrated with the whole thing.


What we have here is a virus that we know very little to nothing about.
I have a very good idea where it came from, what caused it but due to the political sensitivity I will keep this to myself.
This is a wildcard to the Virologist, Scientists in terms of how far this will spread and deaths it will cause.
They know it came from an animal and are 99.99 % sure of that hence Corona. The RO hovers between 2 to 2.5. I am leaning more towards the high side of 2.5 and no where near measles which was 12 to 18 which had the highest of any infectious communicable disease.
It sure seems higher than this to the average person.
The flu RO is around 1 and at times a little more.
How many of us have had the Flu, been around are family in the same house hold and no one else catches it?
Most of us right.
Get Covid, sit with your family and more than likely they will get it.
The reason the panic , hysteria and everything else in-between is the lack of a vaccination, treatment, the unknown.
The Flu, which we see every year, has been well documented so we have a pretty good idea of what to expect.
Here we are fighting something brand new to all of us.
Another thing that makes this much more different than the FLU is usually when you have the FLU your not infectious till your symptoms begin to show, with this Coronavirus it hasn't been proven or disproven, but is possible that people are being infected by people that have no and show no symptoms.
Take Massacdusettes where I live for example the Biogen meeting that happened between 77 and 84 people contracted the Covid19 and no one there had any symptoms previous to the meeting.
It sure is uncharted territories and should cause alarm and panic.
If everything were normal circumstances then all these people who have died would be alive.
You have to remember just because there is Convid19 out there not every case will be met as Babies are still being born, Car accidents are still happening, Over doses, Chemotherapy, Heart Attacks and etc etc etc.
Hospitals are dealing with a surge which to no fault of their own they were not ready for.
No one is to blame as this is a World Wide Crisis and Im afraid if we don't do a mandatory stay in place order this will just continue.
I have a feeling almost everybody at this rate will encounter the Covid.
Please be as healthy as you can and remember every scientists is putting all their egos aside at this one moment for Humanity.

joeychitwood 22 March 2020 11:29 PM

My middle daughter, age 36, wife and mother of three young children is sick. High fever, body aches, headache, cough, chest pain and tightness, shortness of breath with exertion and sore throat. She contacted her health provider in Minneapolis, a major university system. She was told she couldn’t be tested for Covid-19. They are only allowed to test people when the results might drive a decision to admit to a hospital, start a ventilator, etc. So, she needs to stay put.

If she has Coronavirus but doesn’t become critically ill, we will never know. The true incidence of the disease in the US will remain a mystery. This is completely unacceptable.

BigBlue1 22 March 2020 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brew (Post 10475832)
I can't help but imagine what this would all be like, if the contagion was something serious, not just a flu. I don't mean to minimize the horror of where we find ourselves, or where we appear to be heading, but this is just a flu, not ebola.

Some serious rethinking has gotta happen, when we come up for air.

Hey Bestie this is far from a flu:cheers:

AS1 22 March 2020 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10476096)
My middle daughter, age 36, wife and mother of three young children is sick. High fever, body aches, headache, cough, chest pain and tightness, shortness of breath with exertion and sore throat. She contacted her health provider in Minneapolis, a major university system. She was told she couldnít be tested for Covid-19. They are only allowed to test people when the results might drive a decision to admit to a hospital, start a ventilator, etc. So, she needs to stay put.

If she has Coronavirus but doesnít become critically ill, we will never know. The true incidence of the disease in the US will remain a mystery. This is completely unacceptable.

Really sorry to hear this. All the best to your daughter for a speedy recovery.

77T 22 March 2020 11:33 PM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Brew (Post 10476030)
No worries, friend. I should have realized using "just" and "flu" in the same sentence might not get across the point I was trying to make:

I'm afraid this is "just" another shot across humanity's bow . . . .

Yes, stay safe. :cheers:

I interpreted your meaning earlier in the sense of it being another viral infection.

Actually, in research circles, they have approached it this way: how can we use similarities between coronavirus and the seasonal flu to fight COVID-19?

I offer the following as an example of something I posted a while back...that we should not underestimate the capacity for innovation and ingenuity.

Certainly many differences exist between flu and novel coronavirus. The disease it causes is more deadly, it appears to be more contagious, etc.

But for a researcher named Nevan Krogan, embracing the similar way this new virus attaches to our cells may lead to an effective therapeutic cocktail to stop its progression into full-blown COVID-19. And he is using meds that are already FDA-approved for other uses, thereby bypassing the lengthy safety testing requirements.

Please understand that any findings which are efficacious will require off-label approvals. But that is far quicker.

I saw his story this morning on ABC News; this is the link if you want to see it yourself.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/race-c...ry?id=69669987

To over simplify, hereís an image of flu attaching to a cell.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...cdce97a807.jpg

Those spikes on the flu virus are similar to coronavirus. They are proteins and attach to receptors on our cells. The virus canít replicate outside of a cell. Once it inserts itís genome into the cell, it replicates more coronavirus particles and goes to work like a chain reaction.

The difference is the number and types of proteins on the coronavirus and the particular receptors to which it attaches in our cells.

Letís remember, we never found a vaccine for MERS - so the calls for a coronavirus vaccine may not be realized. But this kind of ingenuity could help us survive a future coronavirus infection if an effective cocktail is realized


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Michigan_State 22 March 2020 11:36 PM

Thanks for sharing, Dave! I was in the UK last October and as sad as the reason may be, it’s still beautiful and brings back some nice memories. Miss the pubs! :)

Moggo 22 March 2020 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10476096)
My middle daughter, age 36, wife and mother of three young children is sick. High fever, body aches, headache, cough, chest pain and tightness, shortness of breath with exertion and sore throat. She contacted her health provider in Minneapolis, a major university system. She was told she couldnít be tested for Covid-19. They are only allowed to test people when the results might drive a decision to admit to a hospital, start a ventilator, etc. So, she needs to stay put.

If she has Coronavirus but doesnít become critically ill, we will never know. The true incidence of the disease in the US will remain a mystery. This is completely unacceptable.


Exactly the same as in the U.K., itís crazy [emoji20]


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904VT 22 March 2020 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10474478)
The Hammer and the dance

This is an interesting read. The author is not an epidemiologist. However, he has collated at lot different models that I have not seen before.

These models challenge the economic cost argument against of more aggressive initial measures. Measures that we have not yet had in the US and UK. And argues that the cost will be far greater with half measures we are seeing, both the the healthcare system, overall mortality rates from Covid-19 and collateral deaths.

Food for thought.

Appreciate any input from doctors.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

Thanks for sharing. This is the first study anyone had shared here that takes a true multi-factor analysis into consideration. The collateral damage can be difficult to navigate and this helps demonstrate to everyone this is not an easy problem to solve.

Gaijin 22 March 2020 11:55 PM

Guys bare with me.

Japan is not taking this seriously.

Business as usual. All businesses open except for Apple.

Bars full. Starbucks full. People out dining. Shopping. No social distancing. Maybe 1/2 of the people I see wearing masks.

I made a Costco run. Stocked up on food and dog food for my dog. I'm self isolating.

I just got my b%&#s busted by friends because I don't want to go out drinking with them.

Many many Japanese are returning from overseas that were studying, working or travelling.

Very elderly population here.

Schools are re-opening.

I'm not criticizing a country and a society that I love but I am very concerned.

This could get ugly fast. What am I missing? How does Japan have such a low incidence?

904VT 22 March 2020 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni (Post 10474541)
PPE .Personal Protection Equipment
Without full PPE it is not fair on the health care professional to treat you .
The health care professional will get a higher viral load due to multiple exposures and end up sicker than the patient that needs treatment ! 17 deaths under doctors in Italy .

Governments,get your act together !!! Make a plan !!

To treat the patient is easy,to be quite frank,because there is actually so little available that works or may work .Good outcome on patients that reach ventilation stage from viral pneumonia looks very unlikely .
Italy and China have shown what should be avoided ...Ibuprofen and other NSAIDs.Cortisone also .
Patients on ACE inhibitors for hypertension do badly .

This as did SARS1, targets ACE2 receptor cells according to studies. ACE1 inhibitors reduce ACE1 cells and increase the spread between the ratio of the 2 and potentially causing complications or in other words increases the overall level of ACE2 receptors. Issue is you canít quit taking the meds because theyíre needed for normal treatment of their intended use. NAISD can stop a needed inflammation response by the body. Tylenol has been recommended in studies Iíve read as a substitute. Of course must be careful if you drink alcohol on the regular with Tylenol.


https://www.marketwatch.com/press-re...nts-2020-03-17


https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/a...6/4/322/439241

uscmatt99 23 March 2020 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10476096)
My middle daughter, age 36, wife and mother of three young children is sick. High fever, body aches, headache, cough, chest pain and tightness, shortness of breath with exertion and sore throat. She contacted her health provider in Minneapolis, a major university system. She was told she couldnít be tested for Covid-19. They are only allowed to test people when the results might drive a decision to admit to a hospital, start a ventilator, etc. So, she needs to stay put.

If she has Coronavirus but doesnít become critically ill, we will never know. The true incidence of the disease in the US will remain a mystery. This is completely unacceptable.

Joey, I'm so sorry to hear this. I hope that her symptoms have peaked and she begins her recovery. We are in the same situation here. Testing is pretty much only available for triage prior to admission. If you don't meet criteria for admission, you're told to ride it out.

The lack of preparedness nationwide and in my backyard is disconcerting to say the least. Per my hospital edict, PPE is only to be used for interacting with patients under investigation, confirmed COVID-19 cases, and for providers who are performing screening for patients with possible respiratory infections. The hospitals have literally posted up social media requests for people to sew cloth masks for providers to reuse, and for donations of N95 masks for higher risk interactions.

In my opinion this is waaaaaay behind the curve. All providers should be gowned and masked for all patient interactions until we have the ability to test both the patients (current and screened prior to admission) and providers. Otherwise we will run out of providers. Within the hospital we need to separate the high and low probability populations (until we can test everyone) and their care teams as we run the risk of in-hospital outbreaks at this point.

77T 23 March 2020 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaijin (Post 10476152)
Guys bare with me.

Japan is not taking this seriously.

Business as usual. All businesses open except for Apple.

Bars full. Starbucks full. People out dining. Shopping. No social distancing. Maybe 1/2 of the people I see wearing masks.

I made a Costco run. Stocked up on food and dog food for my dog. I'm self isolating.

I just got my b%&#s busted by friends because I don't want to go out drinking with them.

Many many Japanese are returning from overseas that were studying, working or travelling.

Very elderly population here.

Schools are re-opening.

I'm not criticizing a country, a government and a society that I love but I am very concerned.

This is going to get ugly fast.



Thanks for the social observations from there.

I suppose scientists might study the curves of infections to see if this yields insight into COVID-19 mortality rates. If Japanís experience in 2-4 weeks isnít much different than USA, then perhaps we gain new knowledge.


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77T 23 March 2020 12:27 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
A bright sunny day at a favorite beach of mine. No, Iím not there - a screenshot from a webcam.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...43547818.plist

This was one of the beaches prominently reported by the media because springbreakers were congregating too much.

The townshipís officials banned everyone from the beach; locals, vacationers, breakers, all...

It seems to be working like they wished.


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Bimmy 23 March 2020 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni (Post 10474541)
Patients on ACE inhibitors for hypertension do badly .

Whatís your source on that? A lot of people on ACE inhibitors have heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease, etc and do worse in general.

To date, there hasnít been any evidence to suggest ACE inhibitors are associated with worse outcomes, and all major medical bodies recommend continuing ACE inhibitors.

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/co...-2019-covid-19

Blansky 23 March 2020 12:36 AM

Hawaii has instituted a 14 day quarantine for all people, tourists and residents coming home, starting this Thursday.

Go to Hawaii on vacation, you get to spend the two weeks in quarantine. Granted it's self quarantine, but essentially "house arrest".

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...-days-69732399

gmh1013 23 March 2020 12:36 AM

Sad
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AS1 (Post 10476105)
Really sorry to hear this. All the best to your daughter for a speedy recovery.

Im reading and seeing this in Houston too....one person on the news died waiting in line, in his car at a drive in test site.:thumbsdow

904VT 23 March 2020 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bimmy (Post 10476246)
What’s your source on that? A lot of people on ACE inhibitors have heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease, etc and do worse in general.

To date, there hasn’t been any evidence to suggest ACE inhibitors are associated with worse outcomes, and all major medical bodies recommend continuing ACE inhibitors.

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/co...-2019-covid-19

https://apnews.com/NewMediaWire/6e32...90db6a4fb37b5b

They recommend to continue taking the meds as the stoppage may cause pre-existing conditions to worsen. But they don’t specifically say there isn’t a relationship, just that as of right now it is not enough evidence to show that stoppage is worth the risk of other conditions worsening. They urge for more research to continue reviewing. The initial studies have been basing expectations of this on what the results have been in other illnesses that target ACE2.

superdog 23 March 2020 12:47 AM

Stay positive folks.

I know it can be hard, but it is truly a big part of the battle. Energy is contagious and it effects the immune system. Both ways.

There are a lot of positive things to check out online. Take a break from searching for the disaster and look for the good.

77T 23 March 2020 12:52 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10476279)
Stay positive folks.

I know it can be hard, but it is truly a big part of the battle. Energy is contagious and it effects the immune system. Both ways.

There are a lot of positive things to check out online. Take a break from searching for the disaster and look for the good.



Yes, I agree Seth.

And our Mods are working hard to keep us open. Some inappropriate posts are being proactively removed and I thank them for it. Donít know which one sometimes.

But thanks to the UberMod and CEO, Tim, Peter, Adam and others.

The thread itself has been therapeutic for many memberís emotions.

Iím heading out for a long walk... :chuckle:


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jatco 23 March 2020 12:52 AM

Bride donates flowers...
Something positive....

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...gXJe1_&ampcf=1

chappuy1750 23 March 2020 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10476291)
Yes, I agree Seth.

And our Mods are working hard to keep us open. Some inappropriate posts are being proactively removed and I thank them for it. Donít know which one sometimes.

But thanks to the UberMod and CEO, Tim, Peter, Adam and others.

The thread itself has been therapeutic for many memberís emotions.

Iím heading out for a long walk... :chuckle:


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X2

Just got back from a walk. Lifted my spirits for sure.

Brew 23 March 2020 01:21 AM

Yes, a walk will do wonders.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...5cc0a53840.jpg
Did for me and Koda.


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