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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

pickettt 28 February 2020 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pantheon (Post 10412270)
Keep downplaying this virus and the exact thing will happen to the US like how the Chinese government tried to downplay it.

The media can overhype anything but in this case safer is better

I guess we’ll know soon enough.

mcnealstash 28 February 2020 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10412158)
I appreciate your statements but I disagree I am misinformed. Flights are being canceled and businesses shut down because of the media hype plain and simple. If you disagree with me that’s fine. There is no reason at this point in time for any business to be affected in the United States other than some shipping difficulties we might have with China. Those same difficulties were happening two weeks ago yet the stock market didn’t crash then. Why? I’ll tell you why because the United States media had not hyped it up yet. :cheers:

These events are happening because there is a novel, highly contagious virus with great inevitability that is actively spreading in the world very quickly (r nought of 3.0- this is extremely high in the world of epidemiology- but I wouldn't expect you to understand public health or why its such an important scientific field, so no worries).

It has no vaccine, therefore the only way to contain it or prevent it is to physically not be near others who have it. Avoiding extremely dense places and traveling are not recommended at all, especially if one happens to have the virus- this would cause widespread transmission to others in the vicinity or to another place that the virus has not broken out in. These events you describe are happening as preventive health measures implemented by municipalities large and small to combat the spread of the virus and stop its transmission in the population.

The fact that the virus is now in the U.S. and its spread is essentially unknown at this point in time, with nothing being done to initially contain it (looking at the cases in California), suggests that in fact an outbreak could be under way right now, and it will manifest itself very quickly as we've seen in China and other nations. This is much worse than expected- I'm guessing the American Government's initial thought (Trump told us on twitter a few days ago it wasn't a big deal just a few days ago and that we had things on airtight lockdown, right?) was that the virus could be contained and there was a good chance it would not reach the United States. Now it looks like the virus's spread throughout the U.S. and the world is inevitable.

Any chance of the virus spreading in the U.S. is terrible news because it will drastically slow down business and growth for this year. Schools will shutdown, business will slow in public spaces like malls, work environments will eventually be contaminated and most likely lead to shutting down of factories/plants/other jobs where people are packed close together, people will avoid going out and spending money, etc. These are the real business world implications of a pandemic. So yes, it is indeed a very big deal that warrants people's attention and is certainly not being "overhyped." This information has massive implications in terms of macroeconomic outlook for the year in markets everywhere.

Given the hyperinflated state of the market we were already in, this new information (potential U.S. growth slowdown), along with all of the information that we heard about the virus's spread throughout Europe and other parts of Asia in the past week, we are seeing a correction that was well past due. Just happy I exhibited some foresight, sold my positions on Monday and locked in my gains for the past 1.5 years of playing the game- knowledge gained from school actually came in handy when weighing the decision jump ship or not!

dimag333 28 February 2020 02:41 AM

iranian vp has it? I dint know iran even had a vp

steve

Patton250 28 February 2020 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcnealstash (Post 10412319)
These events are happening because there is a novel, highly contagious virus with great inevitability that is actively spreading in the world very quickly (r nought of 3.0- this is extremely high in the world of epidemiology- but I wouldn't expect you to understand public health or why its such an important scientific field, so no worries).

It has no vaccine, therefore the only way to contain it or prevent it is to physically not be near others who have it. Avoiding extremely dense places and traveling are not recommended at all, especially if one happens to have the virus- this would cause widespread transmission to others in the vicinity or to another place that the virus has not broken out in. These events you describe are happening as preventive health measures implemented by municipalities large and small to combat the spread of the virus and stop its transmission in the population.

The fact that the virus is now in the U.S. and its spread is essentially unknown at this point in time, with nothing being done to initially contain it (looking at the cases in California), suggests that in fact an outbreak could be under way right now, and it will manifest itself very quickly as we've seen in China and other nations. This is much worse than expected- I'm guessing the American Government's initial thought (Trump told us on twitter a few days ago it wasn't a big deal just a few days ago and that we had things on airtight lockdown, right?) was that the virus could be contained and there was a good chance it would not reach the United States. Now it looks like the virus's spread throughout the U.S. and the world is inevitable.

Any chance of the virus spreading in the U.S. is terrible news because it will drastically slow down business and growth for this year. Schools will shutdown, business will slow in public spaces like malls, work environments will eventually be contaminated and most likely lead to shutting down of factories/plants/other jobs where people are packed close together, people will avoid going out and spending money, etc. These are the real business world implications of a pandemic. So yes, it is indeed a very big deal that warrants people's attention and is certainly not being "overhyped."

Given the hyperinflated state of the market we were already in, this new information (potential U.S. growth slowdown), along with all of the information that we heard about the virus's spread throughout Europe and other parts of Asia in the past week, we are seeing a correction that was well past due. Just happy I exhibited some foresight, sold my positions on Monday and locked in my gains for the past 1.5 years- knowledge gained from school actually came in handy when weighing the decision jump ship or not!

I got it. You’re panicking. Understood.

envuks 28 February 2020 03:00 AM

:banhim:

mgsooner 28 February 2020 03:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10412339)
I got it. You’re panicking. Understood.

This is an incredibly lame response to a very well-reasoned post.

BigBlue1 28 February 2020 03:15 AM

This virus is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals, I hope. Many of those initially infected either worked or frequently shopped in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in the centre of the Chinese city. Mustn't forget about the lab.
It can cause pneumonia. Those who have fallen ill are reported to suffer coughs, fever and breathing difficulties. In severe cases there can be organ failure. As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system. Many of those who have died were already in poor health, but not all.
The difference between this and the flu is that there is no vaccine for it. They really don't know just how contagious it is. For this it makes it much harder for people to protect them selves from it. Cleaning your hands and maybe get the flu vaccine, that might help a bit.
It doesn't have the Mortality rate of SARS or MERS yet and I don't expect it. This seems to spread much easier than its predecessors and usually the easier the transmission usually the lesser lethal effects.
I am praying for all the families involved and those who may become involved and wish nothing but the best.

mcnealstash 28 February 2020 03:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10412339)
I got it. You’re panicking. Understood.

Quite the opposite- pleased to lock some gains in and looking forward to play the game more when the timing is right.

dba 28 February 2020 03:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10411956)
More people will probably get struck by lightning this week in the US then have this virus yet they have made it sound like the world is coming to an end. Read this very thread. Please explain????? Good grief. Sorry. Rant over.

The media is poison.

7.7 billion people in the world and approximately 82,000 cases of this virus, meaning 99.999989% of the world's population doesn't have it. (That's if my arithmetic is correct. Long division was never my forte.)

Kinda have to agree with the lightning analogy.

Gaijin 28 February 2020 03:32 AM

In Japan Prime Minister Abe has ordered all public schools to close immediately. Elementary, Junior and Senior High Schools.

Private schools are following suite.

It appears that the Tokyo Olympics will be cancelled.

People are nervous.

SBR 28 February 2020 03:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaijin (Post 10412443)
In Japan Prime Minister Abe has ordered all public schools to close immediately. Elementary, Junior and Senior High Schools.

Private schools are following suite.

It appears that the Tolyo Olympics will be cancelled.

People are nervous.

Here there been a run on food/supplies in Japan? Good luck to all.

pickettt 28 February 2020 03:36 AM

I am more concerned about people’s response than the virus itself.

Gaijin 28 February 2020 03:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10409426)
So as far as you’re concerned you are expecting full blown global panic? I mean economies destroyed, jobs lost, Olympics canceled and pure pandemonium? Basically global meltdown?

Updated answer. Yes.

Though global meltdown might be a little harsh. This is evolving daily. Only time will tell.


It is hitting home. Many of my friends have been ordered not to come to work. Many fear that they are going to lose their jobs. I likely will lose my job if I can work and attempt to return. I'm currently still off work.

The economy in Japan anyway will be crushed. It was already bad.

Japanese passports or those that live here will likely soon be banned from travel. It is already beginning to happen to Korean passport holders.

My fellow American friend said to me today, "We soon could become stateless." Hard to imagine but if we can't travel and if Japan prioritizes its citizens ( which I would not blame them ) then yea. I understand that there was some anger about the US citizens on the cruise ship in Yokohama being allowed to return to the USA.

So far Japanese officials and healthcare providers have been stellar. I went to the clinic and pharmacy today for something unrelated.

Gaijin 28 February 2020 03:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by erhein (Post 10409428)
This post has really caught my eye. My wife and I have travel plans to Tokyo for the second week of April, so we've been watching State Department alerts. Japan was recently raised from level 1 to level 2. I'm 71 years old and she's 68 which could put us at higher risk. We've decided to cancel our plans and from what you've said above, I don't think you would disagree. It's terribly disappointing. Good luck and fingers crossed that you don't all get it.

I think that is smart.

Sadly.

Gaijin 28 February 2020 03:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SBR (Post 10412446)
Here there been a run on food/supplies in Japan? Good luck to all.

I would not call it a run yet.

I went to a wholesale food outlet today. Normally on a weekday quite slow.

I could not get out of the parking lot without difficulty. Seems a lot of people had the same idea I did. Rice. Canned food. Water.



Oh and beer.

exador 28 February 2020 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcnealstash (Post 10412422)
Quite the opposite- pleased to lock some gains in and looking forward to play the game more when the timing is right.

Just curious - if you pull out of the market, where do you park your money until “the timing is right”? In the bank at 1.85%?

nda 28 February 2020 04:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10412277)
I guarantee the media will hype this up and try to crash the economy. That’s my opinion and I’m entitled to it.

I worked for the Washington Post for many years at a senior level, I am not sure I ever saw the memo from Kay Graham that encouraged anyone to try to crash the economy. Indeed, it would have been commercial suicide as advertising dollars are the first to disappear when businesses are in crisis.

But that aside - there are many extremely well qualified medical professionals around the world who are anxious about this virus. It's really not a media conspiracy.

pickettt 28 February 2020 04:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaijin (Post 10412452)
Updated answer. Yes.

Though global meltdown might be a little harsh. This is evolving daily. Only time will tell.


It is hitting home. Many of my friends have been ordered not to come to work. Many fear that they are going to lose their jobs. I likely will lose my job if I can work and attempt to return. I'm currently still off work.

The economy in Japan anyway will be crushed. It was already bad.

Japanese passports or those that live here will likely soon be banned from travel. It is already beginning to happen to Korean passport holders.

My fellow American friend said to me today, "We soon could become stateless." Hard to imagine but if we can't travel and if Japan prioritizes its citizens ( which I would not blame them ) then yea. I understand that there was some anger about the US citizens on the cruise ship in Yokohama being allowed to return to the USA.

So far Japanese officials and healthcare providers have been stellar. I went to the clinic and pharmacy today for something unrelated.

When we bought our house in Japan, my biggest concern was that we wouldn’t be
granted visas for one reason or another. I never considered pandemic to be one of the reasons.

77T 28 February 2020 04:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaijin (Post 10412443)
In Japan Prime Minister Abe has ordered all public schools to close immediately. Elementary, Junior and Senior High Schools.

Private schools are following suite.

It appears that the Tokyo Olympics will be cancelled.

People are nervous.



Yes, schools returning after Spring Holiday passes, though.

On Olympics, not sure - statement 2 days ago:
“Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, estimated there is a three-month window – perhaps a two-month one – to decide the fate of the Tokyo Games, meaning a decision could be put off until late May.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Gaijin 28 February 2020 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10412630)
Yes, schools returning after Spring Holiday passes, though.

On Olympics, not sure - statement 2 days ago:
“Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, estimated there is a three-month window – perhaps a two-month one – to decide the fate of the Tokyo Games, meaning a decision could be put off until late May.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

It is only 3 weeks because that is the end of the school year in Japan. So called Spring holiday. Then a two week break. Then hopefully a resumption of a new school year. But nobody is counting on that to happen. Graduation ceremonies are being cancelled or reduced to 30 minutes.

Nobody that I have talked to thinks the Olympics should be or will be held. An influx of millions? Perhaps spreading the disease.

Or nobody out of fear if held. Empty venues. Many countries perhaps not sending their athletes.

The only scenario where school restarts or the Olympics are held is if the number of cases drops or ends.

TheVTCGuy 28 February 2020 05:13 AM

So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive. Add to that, the world population of four + Billion, and 80,000 have contracted the disease, that means the odds are ... 8,944.91... or... 389.000 Well, that’s a lot of math, but you get the picture.

Compare that to the Influenza virus, Millions get it, and 50,000 plus die every year. I understand the death rate is much less then Corona as a percentage of those who are infected, but the chances of contracting Corona are much lower then flu.

That’s why I still don’t get the panic. It feels like preppers are spring loaded to the Zombie apocalypse and are fueling the mayhem. Just MHO

Fleetlord 28 February 2020 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy (Post 10412717)
So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive. Add to that, the world population of four + Billion, and 80,000 have contracted the disease, that means the odds are ... 8,944.91... or... 389.000 Well, that’s a lot of math, but you get the picture.

Compare that to the Influenza virus, Millions get it, and 50,000 plus die every year. I understand the death rate is much less then Corona as a percentage of thosewho are infected, but the chances of contracting Corona are much lower then flu

That’s why I still don’t get the panic. It feels like preppers are spring loaded to the Zombie apocalypse and are fueling the mayhem. Just MHO

Numbers based on Chinese intel?

CashGap 28 February 2020 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art 1 (Post 10412254)
It’s clear to me that the media, most of it, would love to see the economy crash in the next few months. They have been hoping for it the last few years.

Right. I'll try to dance just shy of the political talk limit...

The "Corona Virus" threat is NOT a health threat, no one seriously reading the facts can consider it such. It will be an immeasurable blip on health.

It's being hyped as a demonic plague, and that causes folks to cancel flights, etc., The lasting damage of the media hysteria is economic. Not medical. Economic calamity is VERY welcome leading up to a fall election. Will it be enough? We'll see.

No one asked the scientist... what's your field? No one cares... he fanned the hype so was immediately vetted.

RTG 28 February 2020 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy (Post 10412717)
So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive. Add to that, the world population of four + Billion, and 80,000 have contracted the disease, that means the odds are ... 8,944.91... or... 389.000 Well, that’s a lot of math, but you get the picture.

Compare that to the Influenza virus, Millions get it, and 50,000 plus die every year. I understand the death rate is much less then Corona as a percentage of those who are infected, but the chances of contracting Corona are much lower then flu.

That’s why I still don’t get the panic. It feels like preppers are spring loaded to the Zombie apocalypse and are fueling the mayhem. Just MHO

Wise are you! Media created panic creates clicks. Clicks create profits. As another wise man once said "follow the money", it usually leads to the truth.

CashGap 28 February 2020 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by exador (Post 10412507)
Just curious - if you pull out of the market, where do you park your money until “the timing is right”? In the bank at 1.85%?

Rolex SS Oyster bands at $1,150 no exchange. After the Coronapocolypse, we can trade them for livestock, land, and bottled water.

Patton250 28 February 2020 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nda (Post 10412524)
I worked for the Washington Post for many years at a senior level, I am not sure I ever saw the memo from Kay Graham that encouraged anyone to try to crash the economy. Indeed, it would have been commercial suicide as advertising dollars are the first to disappear when businesses are in crisis.

But that aside - there are many extremely well qualified medical professionals around the world who are anxious about this virus. It's really not a media conspiracy.

Lol. K

Fleetlord 28 February 2020 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nda (Post 10412524)
I worked for the Washington Post for many years at a senior level, I am not sure I ever saw the memo from Kay Graham that encouraged anyone to try to crash the economy. Indeed, it would have been commercial suicide as advertising dollars are the first to disappear when businesses are in crisis.

But that aside - there are many extremely well qualified medical professionals around the world who are anxious about this virus. It's really not a media conspiracy.

You’re wasting your time and energy. You won’t change his mind and that’s that.

It’s very clear. You either see the virus as a threat and will prepare for it or you don’t care about it in any fashion and will do nothing. That’s a personal decision guided by many factors including contrarianism. Good Luck Everybody!

mgsooner 28 February 2020 05:29 AM

People are far too focused on the nuts and bolts of the virus. No it's not ebola. However it is a serious enough matter that a widespread outbreak in the US (or anywhere) WILL cause major disruptions to the economy and our way of life. That's what concerns me more than the fear of personal harm - although I do have two parents in their 70s including a dad whose lungs are compromised from smoking earlier in his life.

Laszlo 28 February 2020 05:35 AM

What a stressful day!

alphadweller 28 February 2020 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy (Post 10412717)
So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive. Add to that, the world population of four + Billion, and 80,000 have contracted the disease, that means the odds are ... 8,944.91... or... 389.000 Well, that’s a lot of math, but you get the picture.

Compare that to the Influenza virus, Millions get it, and 50,000 plus die every year. I understand the death rate is much less then Corona as a percentage of those who are infected, but the chances of contracting Corona are much lower then flu.

That’s why I still don’t get the panic. It feels like preppers are spring loaded to the Zombie apocalypse and are fueling the mayhem. Just MHO

Your math is wrong. If odds of dying are 3.75%, how do you come up with 99%+ chances of surviving? That would be 96.25% wouldn't it?

How many people on the planet right now, 7.5Bn? Possible death toll: 281.25 million people. That's 86% of US population to give us an idea.

COVID-19 is not exactly innocuous. But other than the relatively small death rate compared to other viruses, I'm also worried about the logistics: cities quarantined, no public transport, limited supplies in hospitals, hospitals overwhelmed, limited transport of goods including food, etc. Could be a chaos.


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