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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

joeychitwood 31 March 2020 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveathall (Post 10497513)
You are a fabulous man. :thumbsup:

Thanks, but not really. I just learned a lot about love and loss in my job. Love really is the most wonderful human quality. And we seem to see the greatest displays of it during hard times.

77T 31 March 2020 08:31 AM

In this war the soldier, sailor, and aviator are the doctor, nurse and assistants.

The difference is we can usually rotate the troops in and out of the front lines.

This will be the hardest part methinks


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mgsooner 31 March 2020 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497506)
I agree with you on every point. It does seem that until people started seeing the horrific images and numbers from the hospitals, many didn't take the pandemic seriously.

Regarding the age distribution of victims who die from Covid-19, I rarely, if ever, took any solace when telling a family in the ER that their older loved one had died in comparison to their younger loved one. I learned that love was love. Loss was loss. From a public health standpoint, age at death distributions and percentages can produce economic and productivity statistics. But from an individual standpoint, deep loss is immeasurable regardless of age or prior health.

Perfectly stated. It certainly would not make losing my mom or dad to this any less crushing to know they were in a high-risk group. Again, we can't possibly thank you enough for what you do.

blassy 31 March 2020 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497514)
Thanks, but not really. I just learned a lot about love and loss in my job. Love really is the most wonderful human quality. And we seem to see the greatest displays of it during hard times.

Youíre a good man doc
And also a consistent voice of reason and sympathy.
Really have appreciated your insights and opinions.

Megalobyte 31 March 2020 08:44 AM

My dad is 76. In NY. Tested positive. He thinks he’s had it about 2-3 weeks. He does have chronic lung issues. And yet, he’s doing ok. Dr. saw him today, said he looks good, and doesn’t think he’ll need a hospital visit. He told me it’s like a bad cold.

77T 31 March 2020 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megalobyte (Post 10497577)
My dad is 76. In NY. Tested positive. He thinks heís had it about 2-3 weeks. He does have chronic lung issues. And yet, heís doing ok. Dr. saw him today, said he looks good, and doesnít think heíll need a hospital visit.



That is a good sign for your family.
BTW, what is his blood type?
O+ maybe?


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Megalobyte 31 March 2020 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10497581)
That is a good sign for your family.
BTW, what is his blood type?
O+ maybe?


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I honestly donít know his blood type. I can ask. He seems in good spirits and frankly Iím surprised how well itís been going for him. I suppose thereís no magic formula for determining who dies or lives.

77T 31 March 2020 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megalobyte (Post 10497595)
I honestly donít know his blood type. I can ask. He seems in good spirits and frankly Iím surprised how well itís been going for him. I suppose thereís no magic formula for determining who dies or lives.



No magic - but an early Chinese cross reference study by blood type indicated Type A had higher risk of coronavirus becoming Covid-19 and type O had a lower risk.

Itís not peer reviewed yet for accuracy, but could lead to understanding the differences.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2


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statsman 31 March 2020 09:28 AM

Be careful with that. Some societies place too much emphasis on blood type. It’s almost like astrology.

77T 31 March 2020 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by statsman (Post 10497663)
Be careful with that. Some societies place too much emphasis on blood type. Itís almost like astrology.



Iím not vouching for it - nor aiming to bring astrology into the convo :chuckle:

They said it is simply a numbers game that had a relevant correlation.

As a stats guy, let us know what you think about the numbers.


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brandrea 31 March 2020 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497506)
I agree with you on every point. It does seem that until people started seeing the horrific images and numbers from the hospitals, many didn't take the pandemic seriously.

Regarding the age distribution of victims who die from Covid-19, I rarely, if ever, took any solace when telling a family in the ER that their older loved one had died in comparison to their younger loved one. I learned that love was love. Loss was loss. From a public health standpoint, age at death distributions and percentages can produce economic and productivity statistics. But from an individual standpoint, deep loss is immeasurable regardless of age or prior health.

I can tell by this and other comments youíve made here that you are a man of true character and compassion.

I wish we could multiply you by 1,000,000 and spread you across the globe Joey.

Waterproofpt 31 March 2020 10:01 AM

Have to be careful interpreting Ďnewí cases as a continued uptick in the rate of spread. We could have a flat curve in terms of the actual total number of cases .... and have an apparent continuous rise in the curve simply because we are testing so many more people and become more aware of the actual numbers. But it doesnít necessarily mean the overall numbers are still rising.
And itís skewed because weíve only been testing those who are symptomatic.
As someone else mentioned, weíd need to be testing virtually everyone, every week to get accurate rates of increase or decrease for that matter.
OR test huge numbers of people randomly to get rates of infection.

Remember, (the same) database can be cherry picked and presented to support almost any argument you want. So we have to be careful interpreting it or making conclusions from it.

djgallo 31 March 2020 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10497207)
Plus Masks.

Masks are coming to the general public in a complete reversal of the phony and terrible advice from the WHO (stop listening to them at once) and others.

Widespread use of Masks are an absolute must.

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM

I had a phone conference today with my doctor about unrelated stuff, but of course this came up and she told me get masks (already did) as soon as you can.

It is vital due to asymptomatic viral shedding and how much #$%$ comes out of our filthy mouths just by speaking. That doesn't just drop to the floor, it floats around and ends up in lodged in your throat and then the invasion of your body begins.

Face masks are ok ...as long as we realize the limitations....

Most of the light face masks that we see people wearing in public are not going to prevent atomised virus from exiting or entering the masks. They are not made of a material to prevent microscopic particulate transmission thru the mask, and they also don’t create a positive seal on the face.

I can see some merit for wearing one as a reminder to maintain space and to prevent touching the nose and mouth directly.

dimag333 31 March 2020 10:18 AM

starting to see a hint of leveling off
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

steve

joeychitwood 31 March 2020 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djgallo (Post 10497750)
Face masks are ok ...as long as we realize the limitations....

Most of the light face masks that we see people wearing in public are not going to prevent atomised virus from exiting or entering the masks. They are not made of a material to prevent microscopic particulate transmission thru the mask, and they also donít create a positive seal on the face.

I can see some merit for wearing one as a reminder to maintain space and to prevent touching the nose and mouth directly.

Also, a breathable barrier can reduce the release of larger infectious airborne particles. Any reduction is better than none.


https://naturalhealthandbeauty4u.fil...09/sneeze1.jpg

GoingPlaces 31 March 2020 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dimag333 (Post 10497777)
starting to see a hint of leveling off
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

steve


We can only hope. Thatís would be a great start towards the end. Fingers crossed.


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77T 31 March 2020 10:56 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by djgallo (Post 10497750)

Most of the light face masks that we see people wearing in public are not going to prevent atomised virus from exiting or entering the masks. They are not made of a material to prevent microscopic particulate transmission thru the mask, and they also donít create a positive seal on the face.


The primary value to the public of wearing even a basic mask is blocking viral shedding by the infected in various forms such as sneezes and coughs. It blocks the projected distance.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...8f2685173e.jpg

Even without a positive seal against the face, you can see the logic of blocking a sneeze.

There is no magic in the novel coronavirus - it canít be atomized to pass through a mask differently than other coronaviruses. In fact, there are over 1,000 amino acids already scanned in the genome and each one has an atom of carbon, to which is attached four different atoms or groups of hydrogen atoms.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...cdf941dd9a.jpg

Itís size and gross atomic weight could be broken but then the surface membrane would no longer be viable and able to attach to a cell.

We donít have the science reported yet on direct airborne inhalation versus contact transfer from hand to nose, eyes or mouth. But stopping the contamination of surfaces on commonly used objects like doors, counters, plastic packaging, etc would be greatly helped by even a standard mask.

Iím just saying that more nonsymptomatic people wearing masks is a good practice in contagion control.



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77T 31 March 2020 10:56 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497795)
Also, a breathable barrier can reduce the release of larger infectious airborne particles. Any reduction is better than none.





https://naturalhealthandbeauty4u.fil...09/sneeze1.jpg



Well said and more succinct... :thumbsup:

We were typing at same time...


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cop414 31 March 2020 11:09 AM

Not sure if this has been posted here yet but 900 NYPD officers tested positive (3 deaths) and 260 FDNY firefighters tested positive.

joeychitwood 31 March 2020 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10497861)
Well said and more succinct... :thumbsup:

We were typing at same time...

The photo I posted was the least disgusting sneeze pic I could find. :chuckle:

superdog 31 March 2020 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cop414 (Post 10497890)
Not sure if this has been posted here yet but 900 NYPD officers tested positive (3 deaths) and 260 FDNY firefighters tested positive.

I donít anyone has. Thank you for positing.

Thatís horrible. God speed.

Maxy 31 March 2020 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djgallo (Post 10497750)
Face masks are ok ...as long as we realize the limitations....

Most of the light face masks that we see people wearing in public are not going to prevent atomised virus from exiting or entering the masks. They are not made of a material to prevent microscopic particulate transmission thru the mask, and they also donít create a positive seal on the face.

I can see some merit for wearing one as a reminder to maintain space and to prevent touching the nose and mouth directly.

Masks are not important if you are not sick - story has been pushed into media as the masks was short in production/supply and not to create more panic. Regular masks may not be as effective as N95 masks but still it will protect 80% of the virus(if they are flying with water droplets or small particles), which is still LOT compared to not wearing one.

Surgical mask = 80%
N95 mask or 3M 8812 = 96.6%


https://smartairfilters.com/wordpres...2020/03/17.png

77T 31 March 2020 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cop414 (Post 10497890)
Not sure if this has been posted here yet but 900 NYPD officers tested positive (3 deaths) and 260 FDNY firefighters tested positive.



No, I donít think anyone noted that yet. The crime rate and fires will still need their attention and we should realize they canít really use PPE in patrolling and firefighting.

Another frontline impacted by this scourge.


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Griswald 31 March 2020 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497514)
thanks, but not really. I just learned a lot about love and loss in my job. Love really is the most wonderful human quality. And we seem to see the greatest displays of it during hard times.

this

watchmework 31 March 2020 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxy (Post 10497930)
Masks are not important if you are not sick - story has been pushed into media as the masks was short in production/supply and not to create more panic. Regular masks may not be as effective as N95 masks but still it will protect 80% of the virus(if they are flying with water droplets or small particles), which is still LOT compared to not wearing one.

Are you suggesting that masks are not important if you're not sick? AFAIK, N95 masks are also used to prevent you from breathing IN the particles from COVID-19...not to mention you could be asymptomatic and walking around producing the airborne particles. As djgallo mentioned though, it's important for you to have a good seal on the face to truly be protected.

Carry The Interest 31 March 2020 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497506)
Regarding the age distribution of victims who die from Covid-19, I rarely, if ever, took any solace when telling a family in the ER that their older loved one had died in comparison to their younger loved one. I learned that love was love. Loss was loss. From a public health standpoint, age at death distributions and percentages can produce economic and productivity statistics. But from an individual standpoint, deep loss is immeasurable regardless of age or prior health.

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10497514)
Love really is the most wonderful human quality. And we seem to see the greatest displays of it during hard times.

Two of the most insightful and undeniable true posts shared in this thread. Could not agree more with these.

I've spent a lot of time (as a visitor) in hospitals the past few year due to very close/immediate family members with ailing health issues. Some of the worst moments of my life have been spent there waiting, thinking, listening. At the same time, it's also been a place where I've seen such an enormous amount of love and support from extended family and friends and church community. Some of these awful experiences of dealing with uncertainty and loss have really helped reveal my real friends and support system. They respect the space you need in rough times (we all deal with stress and grief differently) but make sure you know they are there in your corner ready to anything for you. Apologies for the tangential rambling!

BBL 31 March 2020 12:06 PM

.
Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10497581)
That is a good sign for your family.
BTW, what is his blood type?
O+ maybe?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10497627)
No magic - but an early Chinese cross reference study by blood type indicated Type A had higher risk of coronavirus becoming Covid-19 and type O had a lower risk.

It’s not peer reviewed yet for accuracy, but could lead to understanding the differences.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2


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Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10497685)
I’m not vouching for it - nor aiming to bring astrology into the convo :chuckle:

They said it is simply a numbers game that had a relevant correlation.

As a stats guy, let us know what you think about the numbers.

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Paul: I agree that the discussion about possible blood type susceptibility is quite interesting and bears more quantification and qualification.



CDC has listed the preprint study with statement provided by the study introduction: "People with blood group A may have a significantly higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O may have a significantly lower risk for the infection compared with non-O blood groups."

The preprint study is accessed through CDC that links directly to:
"Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility"
............https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2
............J Zhao et al, MedRXIV, March 16, 2020 (Posted: Mar-16-2020 9AM)


The Abstract authors make it clear:

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice."

The pdf file provides the study in entirety. The study process and clinical observations are provided there.


In my honest opinion, in your original post there was no assumption made about an absolute finding that one blood type has more susceptibility over another that would lead any reasonable person to be misled about your comment in a collegial discussion (even backed up by your own well stated caveat).

The preprint study was already presented in full public view, per CDC who posted it on their website (March 16, 2020).

Also, it is obviously out in medical circle discussions, evidenced by at least one example provided by the Texas doctor (March 25, 2020) that I found, who was forthright about making changes in his practice and seeking current information and trends which could protect and guide his patients. In his radio interview on March 25, 2020, he mentioned Type A as well.
Radio interview:
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=4383

Its evident that there is plenty of conversation about blood type, and about genetics as well; all of which future studies are bound to be evaluated by scientific research with conclusions backed by clinical examination.

No worries. Take care.

Cheers, :cheers:

Old Expat Beast 31 March 2020 12:34 PM

Almost everyone in Hong Kong (pop. 7.4 million) wears a mask. We're on the doorstep of Mainland China, with a very high population density, and since this all started we have had 682 cases reported (the vast majority imported by folks returning from overseas/mainland China) and only four deaths. I'll keep wearing my mask when I go to the store at least.

mgsooner 31 March 2020 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megalobyte (Post 10497577)
My dad is 76. In NY. Tested positive. He thinks heís had it about 2-3 weeks. He does have chronic lung issues. And yet, heís doing ok. Dr. saw him today, said he looks good, and doesnít think heíll need a hospital visit. He told me itís like a bad cold.

So thankful to hear stories like this. Hoping your dad continues to do well.

RWH 31 March 2020 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cop414 (Post 10497890)
Not sure if this has been posted here yet but 900 NYPD officers tested positive (3 deaths) and 260 FDNY firefighters tested positive.

Our police officers are definitely largely affected. I have many friends that are in NYPD and it's rather scary for all of them but nonetheless they show up to their jobs. I know of one that in his apartment he now sleeps in the living room in order to try and keep the rest of his family safe because he has no clue if he catches the virus. They put a curtain to separate the living room


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