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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

Letsgodiving 1 March 2020 10:35 AM

This may have already been posted in the thread I haven't read the whole thing. A running tally of cases, deaths etc. per country.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Laszlo 1 March 2020 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tha Baron (Post 10419522)
Suppressed? I've seen her on CNBC like 10 times this week...

3 to 4% death rate is not being reported here. We are told 80% it’s just a cold which means a much lower death rate. That doesn’t make mathematical sense, isn’t that more in line with ~>1%? At least I don’t think so. (shrug) Anyway plenty of good reads of healthy, younger folks going through it and it doesn’t sound like fun at all. I know how a cold feels. And I know what bird flu feels like — it was horrible. But this sounds way worse. I don’t buy the narrative here.

FHFinster 1 March 2020 11:07 AM

My plan:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...47bdb38773.jpg



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Cryten 1 March 2020 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danbl68 (Post 10419502)
Nope....it is the 3rd most common virus in Europe and Asia...why now?! We have had it in the US, we have had it everywhere, the only difference is that NOW it is known. There had been many people who have been ill from it and even died from it but all thought that it was the flu virus or another virus. Just like any other one, WASH YOUR HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER! Be smart and avoid those who are sick around you, and yea, maybe you shouldn't travel to areas where it is prevalent......but honestly, after ALL that we have been through, this, too, shall pass.

The Coronavirus is a family of viruses. SARS was a Coronavirus. The biggest difference here is that the Wuhan virus has a section of its genetic sequence that isn't natural. This genome section has been questioned repeatedly by virologists, yet isn't news worthy for some reason.

Wuhan has a level 4 virology lab that just happens to be 8 miles from the market which is blamed for the outbreak (even though patient zero never went there). This lab has a long and "googlable" history of working with Coronaviruses (with major funding coming from the US......oddly).

Apply the logic test, would China essentially shut down their economy for 2000ish deaths?

The Chinese doctor who identified this new virus and blew the whistle (and was silenced by the CCP) died from this virus.......do you think he thought to wash his hands?

We can all hope this blows over, but so far it's looking bad. Many businesses use the "just in time" stock model to reduce costs, situations like this show how vulnerable they've made themselves. If you run your house on the same model you might be in trouble. Everywhere it hits, supermarket shelves are empty in a day or two. Forget the masks, making sure you and the family can survive independently for a few weeks (or more) might be a prudent move.

Laszlo 1 March 2020 11:56 AM

The lab in question is actually only 400 yards away from the market that’s already been proven not to be the source. Also new reports coming out of China are showing a sudden rebound in new cases including spread in Beijing. There were also 909 new cases in SK and Cambodia had to shutter several factories. :(

Cryten 1 March 2020 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10419965)
The lab in question is actually only 400 yards away from the market thatís already been proven not to be the source. Also new reports coming out of China are showing a sudden rebound in new cases including spread in Beijing. :(


On Google maps it's 8.6 miles (travel distance, not linear). After this information began to spread, it suddenly moved 21 miles away in the middle of a forest. This was also noticed by many and Google moved it back to it's original location. I just checked. It hasn't moved again.

This lab was "proven" not to be the source? By whom was it proven? And how was this done?

El Cascarrabias 1 March 2020 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cryten (Post 10419941)
. . . The Chinese doctor who identified this new virus and blew the whistle (and was silenced by the CCP) died from this virus . . .

How do we really know he died from the virus?

Cryten 1 March 2020 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Cascarrabias (Post 10420015)
How do we really know he died from the virus?

He was interviewed by phone on his death bed, coughing and struggling to talk. There is a recording doing the rounds in the media. I don't speak Chinese so I have to trust the translation.

I can say with a fair degree of certainty that he didn't die in a car crash. Google is your friend on this one.

danbl68 1 March 2020 12:27 PM

Ps regular masks donít work...you need the N95 and be clean shaven


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superdog 1 March 2020 12:29 PM

Reading all the latest updates. This is bad. Just going to get worse. No end in sight.

Laszlo 1 March 2020 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cryten (Post 10420003)
On Google maps it's 8.6 miles (travel distance, not linear). After this information began to spread, it suddenly moved 21 miles away in the middle of a forest. This was also noticed by many and Google moved it back to it's original location. I just checked. It hasn't moved again.

This lab was "proven" not to be the source? By whom was it proven? And how was this done?

The market has been proven not to be the source. I believe that’s 100%. The lab is still an open question. The structure of the virus continues to be a debate. Me personally have made my own determination.

PS that’s hilarious the lab kept moving away on GM.

77T 1 March 2020 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10420041)
Reading all the latest updates. This is bad. Just going to get worse. No end in sight.



I get your feeling Seth - perhaps over exposure to the constant stream of bad news?

But this will get better - not immediately - but it will.

It has just begun - so we need to remain hopeful for the family members who are bound to be more frightened by it than we should reasonably be.


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Patton250 1 March 2020 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10420041)
Reading all the latest updates. This is bad. Just going to get worse. No end in sight.

Itís definitely bad for 80+ years old and unhealthy people. It will most definitely end though.

Cryten 1 March 2020 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10420070)
The market has been proven not to be the source. I believe thatís 100%. The lab is still an open question. The structure of the virus continues to be a debate. Me personally have made my own determination.

PS thatís hilarious the lab kept moving away on GM.

Sorry, I misread your post. Yes, the information to date disproves the market at the original source, however it could certainly be responsible for helping spread it.

As for the Google Maps thing? Maybe just a glitch in the matrix.

This is one of the screen shots doing the rounds:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...db22f9dcb2.jpg

There are also Google Earth screen shots showing the new location to be a forested area. It's been moved back now. It's probably just a coincidence, why would anyone be concerned with the location of China's only level 4 virology lab?

Bigblu10 1 March 2020 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10420095)
Itís definitely bad for 80+ years old and unhealthy people. It will most definitely end though.

The flu is likely worse for the elderly and unhealthy folks with compromised immune systems. Just a perspective

superdog 1 March 2020 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10420095)
Itís definitely bad for 80+ years old and unhealthy people. It will most definitely end though.

Everything ends.

Even potentially our time on this planet. Donít get me wrong, I dont think we are even close to that.

But my question is how bad will it end. World markets destroyed? Global territories closing borders and shutting down travel? Essentials being hoarded and law and order breaks down? Military rule of law? Quarantines?

Iím not panicking. Please donít misunderstand. But this is all possible.

And my wife went onto amazon and found many different essentials depleted. You can be certain Iím going to the supermarket first thing tomorrow to stock up and non perishable food items. Yo be honest, Iím fearful that Iím too late and much will be gone. Iíll update the thread tomorrow.

Just getting prepared. I do think the potential is there for this to be bad. Real threat or not. Fear and panic by the masses can make it real.

1. Long gestation period with no symptoms.
2. Easy to transmit
3. Can get multiple times
4. Likely the relatively few people infected now have been infecting others for weeks.
5. There is every possibility that every day will simply bring more news of more infected.

Can this blow over? Of course. Absolutely. But signs donít point to that right now. All logical signs point to this just being the very beginning.

Just saying, better to be prepared, than not. Iím definitely taking this super seriously.

And so is my family. My father is the perfect candidate for this to be a mortal infection.

Am I worried? Will it keep me awake tonight? No, Iím not and it will not. But certainly Iím watching this and concerned with the potential implications.

superdog 1 March 2020 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigblu10 (Post 10420111)
The flu is likely worse for the elderly and unhealthy folks with compromised immune systems. Just a perspective

Very true.

But the flu is known. This is new and unknown and itís the panic that can actually make this worse than something relatively innocuous.

Patton250 1 March 2020 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigblu10 (Post 10420111)
The flu is likely worse for the elderly and unhealthy folks with compromised immune systems. Just a perspective

I got that info from a coronavirus graph I saw.

Patton250 1 March 2020 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10420125)
Everything ends.

Even potentially our time on this planet. Donít get me wrong, I dont think we are even close to that.

But my question is how bad will it end. World markets destroyed? Global territories closing borders and shutting down travel? Essentials being hoarded and law and order breaks down? Military rule of law? Quarantines?

Iím not panicking. Please donít misunderstand. But this is all possible.

And my wife went onto amazon and found many different essentials depleted. You can be certain Iím going to the supermarket first thing tomorrow to stock up and non perishable food items. Yo be honest, Iím fearful that Iím too late and much will be gone. Iíll update the thread tomorrow.

Just getting prepared. I do think the potential is there for this to be bad. Real threat or not. Fear and panic by the masses can make it real.

1. Long gestation period with no symptoms.
2. Easy to transmit
3. Can get multiple times
4. Likely the relatively few people infected now have been infecting others for weeks.
5. There is every possibility that every day will simply bring more news of more infected.

Can this blow over? Of course. Absolutely. But signs donít point to that right now. All logical signs point to this just being the very beginning.

Just saying, better to be prepared, than not. Iím definitely taking this super seriously.

And so is my family. My father is the perfect candidate for this to be a mortal infection.

Am I worried? Will it keep me awake tonight? No, Iím not and it will not. But certainly Iím watching this and concerned with the potential implications.

Do you think we should shut the schools down? Perhaps all air travel? Most definitely the theme parks. If you are even 1/10th right we should donít you think?

superdog 1 March 2020 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10420138)
Do you think we should shut the schools down? Perhaps all air travel? Most definitely the theme parks. If you are even 1/10th right we should donít you think?

I have a conference in Atlanta 2nd week of March. Itís international and there will likely be tens of thousands of people. Me plus 5 of my team. I think Iím going to cancel the trip.

Thatís if they even keep the show open. I doubt they will.

I donít know if everything should close for now. Part of me certainly says precautionary measures need to taken.

But maybe itís a big nothing. I just donít know. From what I see though?

Certainly theme parks and non essentials should be evaluated right now.

Laszlo 1 March 2020 01:35 PM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10420125)
Everything ends.

Even potentially our time on this planet. Donít get me wrong, I dont think we are even close to that.

But my question is how bad will it end. World markets destroyed? Global territories closing borders and shutting down travel? Essentials being hoarded and law and order breaks down? Military rule of law? Quarantines?

Iím not panicking. Please donít misunderstand. But this is all possible.

And my wife went onto amazon and found many different essentials depleted. You can be certain Iím going to the supermarket first thing tomorrow to stock up and non perishable food items. Yo be honest, Iím fearful that Iím too late and much will be gone. Iíll update the thread tomorrow.

Just getting prepared. I do think the potential is there for this to be bad. Real threat or not. Fear and panic by the masses can make it real.

1. Long gestation period with no symptoms.
2. Easy to transmit
3. Can get multiple times
4. Likely the relatively few people infected now have been infecting others for weeks.
5. There is every possibility that every day will simply bring more news of more infected.

Can this blow over? Of course. Absolutely. But signs donít point to that right now. All logical signs point to this just being the very beginning.

Just saying, better to be prepared, than not. Iím definitely taking this super seriously.

And so is my family. My father is the perfect candidate for this to be a mortal infection.

Am I worried? Will it keep me awake tonight? No, Iím not and it will not. But certainly Iím watching this and concerned with the potential implications.

Iím aligned with you on this, Seth. Itís simply math and itís pretty clear where things are leading. Of course there will be an end to it. But as noted above this truly is just the beginning. Also this isnít an 80+ issue, itís a 50+ issue, death rates for 50-60 is >1%, 60+ >3%, and it goes up from there. 80+ is low teens I believe. Then there are one-offs from 10 plus years up to 40/50. Iím not concerned about getting sick but incredibly concerned about the financial collapse and geopolitical probabilities. Those are downright frightening. The market will crash 40%. Thatís near guaranteed.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...aceae90aaf.jpg

BBL 1 March 2020 01:47 PM

.
From a Diamond Princess tourist who has CV -- "I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad."

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opi...d-15093664.php

Wishing him wellness.

A971 1 March 2020 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBL (Post 10420188)
.
From a Diamond Princess tourist who has CV -- "I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad."

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opi...d-15093664.php

Wishing him wellness.



Most mild cases recover.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...cc7eb4fdcd.jpg

But I think the happy feel good of that story is going to get lost now with:

-1st death in the US in Washington State and a declaration of emergency

-China mfg PMI fell to 35.7!! from 50 prev. This is the lowest level ever recorded. Lowest level in the financial crisis was 38.8.



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Laszlo 1 March 2020 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A971 (Post 10420226)
Most mild cases recover.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...cc7eb4fdcd.jpg

But I think the happy feel good of that story is going to get lost now with:

-1st death in the US in Washington State and a declaration of emergency

-China mfg PMI fell to 35.7!! from 50 prev. This is the lowest level ever recorded. Lowest level in the financial crisis was 38.8.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mild is a very positive story. That’s ~40%. I think it’s misleading that 80% has become the new mild number. That’s not right to make people feel it’s just a cold and it’s an old person or underlining conditions only concern or issue.

Also to note PMI, China’s economy at that time (2008/9) was half of what it is today, so that PMI number is absolutely crushing.

BBL 1 March 2020 02:31 PM

.
.
The Diamond Princess tourist in medical treatment is a lucky one that has made it thus far, but did mention that six who contracted CV on same cruise had perished.



Further of note:
CDC asking public not to purchase N95 masks (USA) - leave for healthcare workers.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-warns-sav...162144855.html

Laszlo 1 March 2020 02:34 PM

The Vatican has confirmed in a statement that Pope Francis and two of his aides have tested positive for the novel Coronavirus. Story is highly suspect.

Pantheon 1 March 2020 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10420283)
The Vatican has confirmed in a statement that Pope Francis and two of his aides have tested positive for the novel Coronavirus. Story is highly suspect.

Don't think the Vatican will release something like that. Although the pope did fall ill after a mass so it is definitely possible. The pope also has had prior lung problems and with his age, I can imagine if he does get it, it will be highly unlikely he will make it

Laszlo 1 March 2020 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pantheon (Post 10420300)
Don't think the Vatican will release something like that. Although the pope did fall ill after a mass so it is definitely possible. The pope also has had prior lung problems and with his age, I can imagine if he does get it, it will be highly unlikely he will make it

It looks to be fake news.

pickettt 1 March 2020 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBL (Post 10420276)
Further of note:
CDC asking public not to purchase N95 masks (USA) - leave for healthcare workers.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-warns-sav...162144855.html

More nonsense. We healthcare workers have access to them before the general public do.

Letsgodiving 1 March 2020 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10420163)
Iím aligned with you on this, Seth. Itís simply math and itís pretty clear where things are leading. Of course there will be an end to it. But as noted above this truly is just the beginning. Also this isnít an 80+ issue, itís a 50+ issue, death rates for 50-60 is >1%, 60+ >3%, and it goes up from there. 80+ is low teens I believe. Then there are one-offs from 10 plus years up to 40/50. Iím not concerned about getting sick but incredibly concerned about the financial collapse and geopolitical probabilities. Those are downright frightening. The market will crash 40%. Thatís near guaranteed.

Well, if you believe what you said earlier "Donít be surprised if this leads to an exchange of nuclear arsenal." why stop at 40%?


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