Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum

Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum (https://www.rolexforums.com/index.php)
-   Open Discussion Forum (https://www.rolexforums.com/forumdisplay.php?f=7)
-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

Laszlo 3 February 2020 03:17 PM

This is from the New York Times this morning. It didn’t get a lot of traction, for well, you know why. It’s all very real.

Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say

The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...china.amp.html

77T 3 February 2020 04:23 PM

After reading that NYT article I was surprised they think the most vulnerable target is Africa. But when they said over 1 million expat Chinese work there in mining, drilling and engineering, it made sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Fleetlord 3 February 2020 05:07 PM

I am concerned about India. Almost the population of China, with only 1/3 of the land and poorer infrastructure and public health facilities.

Even though 70% of population is rural, the others are crammed together with insufficient support. Seems like a nightmare in the waiting.

Fat_ninja 3 February 2020 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10344468)
I am concerned about India. Almost the population of China, with only 1/3 of the land and poorer infrastructure and public health facilities.

Even though 70% of population is rural, the others are crammed together with insufficient support. Seems like a nightmare in the waiting.

I am too and their provinces donít really talk with the central govt the same way.

padi56 3 February 2020 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 (Post 10329099)
Am I the only one not worried??

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Arcticsub 3 February 2020 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gtnator (Post 10341995)
Just donít touch your face, youíll be fine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Or be old, or be very young, or have a house mate who caught the virus, or be immunocompromised, or have heart disease, or have lung disease.

Arcticsub 3 February 2020 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by padi56 (Post 10344685)
Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Personally, what's worrying me is the fact that seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. Right now Wuhan virus' mortality rate is around 2-3%. That difference, together with it spreading like wildfire, is huge.

3 Putt 3 February 2020 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10344468)
I am concerned about India. Almost the population of China, with only 1/3 of the land and poorer infrastructure and public health facilities.

Even though 70% of population is rural, the others are crammed together with insufficient support. Seems like a nightmare in the waiting.

I agree with this. I left China three days ago as my company required me to leave. I am now in Bangalore, India as I have responsibility for our business here as well. There was almost no screening at the airport when I arrived. However, the Indian government banned the export of surgical masks on January 30. So they are anticipating the need.

mountainjogger 4 February 2020 12:58 AM

Too many unknowns. What is true mortality rate? Infection rate? Reinfection rate?

A lot of figures floating out there right now. But I suspect that no one really knows yet.

Laszlo 4 February 2020 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10344468)
I am concerned about India. Almost the population of China, with only 1/3 of the land and poorer infrastructure and public health facilities.

Even though 70% of population is rural, the others are crammed together with insufficient support. Seems like a nightmare in the waiting.

I think these are the biggest concerns; poor countries with a high population density. India would be a true disaster. One positive though is that this virus does best in cold dry climates. Also important to note is a pandemic is classified as 2 continents or more. It doesnít necessarily mean the EU, United States, or other countries with ample resources to contain and treat with modern medicine will be be affected In those ranges. What is clear though and this is the biggest concern is pure economics. This situation could easily throw the world back into a 2008 financial crisis or worse and thatís what should be worrying everyone. My hope is this just burns itself out but the damage to economies will just take time and patience to recover fully.

Arcticsub 4 February 2020 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10345223)
This situation could easily throw the world back into a 2008 financial crisis or worse and thatís what should be worrying everyone.

The factory of the world has been brought offline. It's really unprecedented. Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, all empty streets, even after the Chinese holidays. We're running on fumes here.

WILLIWALKER 4 February 2020 11:42 PM

The Chinese government will never release the actual figures and this is understandable from an economic and public order point of view. It is therefore necessary to multiply all the official Chinese data .. this multiple remains unknown ... maybe 10? or 15?
This crisis is for me also unprecedented and it follows the trajectory of a great pandemic that we could have on a simulator with an imminent slowdown before an exponential rise.
We must salute China's efforts and honor it by avoid panicking, but we must also point the finger at the amateurism of our US/EU governments

beshannon 4 February 2020 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by padi56 (Post 10344685)
Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Some people love to panic

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...18&w=630&h=354

Spartacus 4 February 2020 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon (Post 10347900)
Some people love to panic

Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?

GoingPlaces 5 February 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon (Post 10347900)

Still need to consider the mortality rate is 2-3x influenza. So if the same amount of people contract this, the mortality numbers will swell beyond influenza fatalities. Most of these would likely be in China and lesser developed countries.

Still too early to determine if there is panic or not. This thing needs to peak out before that assessment can accurately be made.

beshannon 5 February 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartacus (Post 10347916)
Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?

Check the chart, look at the facts. IMHO China is playing catch up and is far more embarrassed than scared.

Laszlo 5 February 2020 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon (Post 10347900)

We canít compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and itís more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

IntenseImage 5 February 2020 01:34 AM

Working for a company with a main office in China, some of the corporate comms make it sound pretty serious, even if the gov over there is suppressing what comes out

77T 5 February 2020 02:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10347956)
We canít compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and itís more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.


The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

Iíd like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Canít really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a yearís worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Laszlo 5 February 2020 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10348335)
The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

Iíd like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Canít really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a yearís worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Agree with the exception of MERS, mortality was in the 30% range. That was a dangerous one.

77T 5 February 2020 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10348877)
Agree with the exception of MERS, mortality was in the 30% range. That was a dangerous one.



I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific.

I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Fleetlord 5 February 2020 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10349066)
I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific.

I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Expertise in helicoptering and virology...thanks for your insights in the current events...:cheers:

Gaijin 6 February 2020 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim Smyth (Post 10333630)

Cruise ships in Japan too. Arriving and not being allowed to disembark. Confirmed cases on board. Those passengers have been taken to local hospitals.

Japan has the highest infestation of confirmed cases outside of China.

On an average weekend I will see 100-200 Chinese tourists at my local Starbucks and adjoining park. That is just in my 30 minutes there. They are bused there by tour buses. The baristas and I have joked in the past that you don't hear Japanese being spoken there.



None last weekend.

Ichiran 6 February 2020 01:12 PM

There's†always influenza related deaths at any single time. Usually the elderly or the weak. If concomittant†infection with coronavirus, then maybe more dangerous.

And unless my mathematics fails me, the mortality rate of coronavirus' 2.5% is higher than the 0.2% of influenza, assuming all the coronavirus mortality rate was reported accurately of course. It should be higher if I were to make a guess.

Laszlo 8 February 2020 05:57 PM

Things that make you go, hmmm!?

The patients hospitalized with 2019-nCoV pneumonia experienced a range of symptoms, researchers report. All but two had a fever, 70 percent felt fatigued, 60 percent had a dry cough, 35 percent experienced muscle pain and 31 percent found it difficult to breathe. Smaller numbers of patients described headaches, dizziness, nausea, diarrhea, vomiting and abdominal pain. Ten percent of patients had diarrhea and nausea a day or two before developing fever and shortness of breath.

With a low 2% mortality rate, odds of the whistleblower dying, coincidental? Everyone being interviewed has lost a loved a family member.

Things that make you go, hmmm!?

Koolpep 8 February 2020 06:51 PM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10347956)
We canít compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and itís more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.



Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

Itís currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

Laszlo 8 February 2020 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolpep (Post 10358352)
Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

Itís currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

Actually itís 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus youíll get the same data. Itís not a secret :chuckle:

Koolpep 8 February 2020 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10358370)
Actually itís 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus youíll get the same data. Itís not a secret :chuckle:



Credible source....?
WHO and CDC say nothing of that sort...

beshannon 9 February 2020 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10358370)
Actually itís 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus youíll get the same data. Itís not a secret :chuckle:

:thumbsdow

Quote:

Itís currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html

Laszlo 9 February 2020 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon (Post 10358929)

CDC is political.

:thumbsdow

Coronaviruses can persist on inanimate surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days, according to a study published Feb. 6 in the Journal of Hospital Infection.

Researchers analyzed 22 studies on coronaviruses, including literature on SARS and MERS. An analysis revealed that the viruses normally survive on surfaces between four and five days, but can remain infectious for up to nine days. Low temperatures and high air humidity increase the lifespan.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...udy-finds.html


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 04:17 AM.