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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

mountainjogger 13 March 2020 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swatty (Post 10451768)
Just found out one of my clients has tested positive,lucky Iíve been working with him on zoom for the last 2 weeks

Hope your client has a speed recovery.:thumbsup:

Moggo 13 March 2020 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swatty (Post 10451768)
Just found out one of my clients has tested positive,lucky Iíve been working with him on zoom for the last 2 weeks



Wouldnít have known in the UK as we are only testing hospitalised cases.


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swatty 13 March 2020 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10451774)
Hope your client has a speed recovery.:thumbsup:

Thanks, he is doing well. Says it feels just like any other flu he has had in his 50 years

wantonebad 13 March 2020 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyxxx (Post 10451750)
I can't see the point of testing and I never have.

It's quite clear what one should do when having said symptoms.

To track the spread, to focus attention where it is needed and to stop the spread...

DLRIDES 13 March 2020 09:14 PM

Reality Check (as related to the US)


) Ten short years ago, Swine Flu

) 41,000,000 - 55,000,000 infected cases

) 300,000 hospitalized with such

) 12,000 - 17,000 deceased with such


Is the only difference being one was called the “flu”, and the other isn’t ?

As a society haven’t we become accustomed to “flu” deaths ?

Are we currently victims of fabricated panic ?


:thinking:


Panic sells, follow the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

andyxxx 13 March 2020 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10451773)
But how do you determine it from a common cold as many have only experienced mild symptoms, so donít quarantine and spread to more vulnerable people?


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The virus is within the world population and the nature of it is that it can and has spread before symptoms show up. It will spread until it has run itís course.

There will be many people without symptoms spreading the disease, many with mild symptoms that will never know they had it (that would never have got tested and will spread it) and a few that will develop severe symptoms and possibly die (who will have also spread it before being diagnosed)

All governments are doing with their various methods is trying to ensure we donít all contract it at the beginning of the curve Ė to enable life/industry/hospitals to cope as best possible.

Once the symptons identify (cough, fever, temp) Ė it is possibly/likely Coronavirus Ė self quarantine.

77T 13 March 2020 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjr24 (Post 10451671)
We have a honeymoon planned to Key West from March 28 to April 5.....am I assuming it's probably a bit risky to go?

Who knows what even will be up with commercial air travel by then. Seems the airlines are willing to give a credit for the tickets to be used anytime in the next 12 months.....hotels seems amenable to canceling, too. Thoughts? I mean even if we could go.....you wonder how many places (restaurants, tourist spots, businesses) will be voluntarily closed anyways.



Congrats to you and your spouse. Now on your plans for Key West, I would wait.

I say that not because I think youíre at some great risk, but because a honeymoon is for maligning lifetime memories. Itís likely the trip could become very stressful, the destination resort disappointing, and the fun you anticipate absent.

So, while you may go and return without any health problems, the experience may not be the honeymoon you hoped for.

Just my 2Ę


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uscmatt99 13 March 2020 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doc Savage (Post 10451546)
The Governor of Michigan just closed all our public schools for the next 3 weeks.

I'm sure this was a tough decision, but I think it was the right call.

On the one hand it will force parents to stay home with their kids who were usually at school while they worked. In one way this is bad, especially if they are health care providers. However, that will also decrease that adult's exposure so they will be ready when needed. The other issue is there are a lot of poor children who rely on school meals for sustenance. I hope that communities quickly put together ways to distribute these meals en masse with financial support from state or federal coffers.

On the other hand, it will go a LONG way towards flattening the curve. We are in worse shape than Italy in terms of available hospital beds per citizen, protective gear, ability to test, etc. At this point I don't think we can be too aggressive with the approach of social distancing, as it's the best tool in the arsenal. If it's successful and we don't have people dying in the hallways, I'm sure there are people who will gleefully spout off "told you so, overreaction for nothing, look at the economic impact, blah blah blah" and so be it, I'll be able to sleep at night.

Moggo 13 March 2020 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyxxx (Post 10451883)
The virus is within the world population and the nature of it is that it can and has spread before symptoms show up. It will spread until it has run itís course.



There will be many people without symptoms spreading the disease, many with mild symptoms that will never know they had it (that would never have got tested and will spread it) and a few that will develop severe symptoms and possibly die (who will have also spread it before being diagnosed)



All governments are doing with their various methods is trying to ensure we donít all contract it at the beginning of the curve Ė to enable life/industry/hospitals to cope as best possible.



Once the symptons identify (cough, fever, temp) Ė it is possibly/likely Coronavirus Ė self quarantine.



Why do we keep issuing statistics about positive cases daily when we arenít testing everyone with symptoms? Just as well use a lottery machine for the numbers as itís so inaccurate.

If you self quarantine for the 7 days you donít even have to tell anyone. Just seems crazy.


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benlee 13 March 2020 11:14 PM

I think I can understand why governments across the world panic and implement measures that to some people might seem drastic and out of proportion.

The lethalness of the virus is not how high the fatality rate but its supposedly virulence, ie how easily it can spread. On average, the virus kills anywhere from 2-5% of the people it infects ( depending on demographic, healthcare quality etc ). So a country of say 20 million, which if the outbreak is left unchecked, the virus will eventually infect around 50% of the population. And that will result in 200,000 to 500,000 deaths.

Too much is still unknown about the virus and above are just my best guess estimates from reading various new sources. Since we don't have a vaccine now, the only way to prevent this is through preventive measures such as frequent washing of hands, screening and quarantine if detected.

If the medical community can somehow determine what proportion of the population who gets the virus and actually have no to mild symptoms ( which by most estimate is a very high percentage ), vs those who need hospitalization care, then we can perhaps established that the real fatality rate is somehow lesser and we can relax and brief a sign of relief. This is hypothetically speaking of course. In truth, those who have no or mild symptoms aren't going to get tested and to test everyone is a logistical impossibility. So governments and medical institutions, including CDC and WHO will then use best guess estimates and just assume the worst case scenario. Better to be safe than sorry.

Eventually, despite the best containment efforts, every country is going to go through this from 4 to 6 months until it all dies down. Unfortunately, the economy is the collateral damage in this process and all of us in one degree or another will suffer from it.

bayerische 13 March 2020 11:28 PM

Idiots in my country continue to hoard TP. I'm lost for words. I'm seriously let down by my own.

bayerische 13 March 2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DLRIDES (Post 10451866)
Reality Check (as related to the US)


) Ten short years ago, Swine Flu

) 41,000,000 - 55,000,000 infected cases

) 300,000 hospitalized with such

) 12,000 - 17,000 deceased with such


Is the only difference being one was called the ďfluĒ, and the other isnít ?

As a society havenít we become accustomed to ďfluĒ deaths ?

Are we currently victims of fabricated panic ?


:thinking:


Panic sells, follow the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Agreed.

JParm 13 March 2020 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seibei (Post 10450320)
Think for yourself. Don't do or not do something because someone says. Decide for yourself. This someone you are talking about must be the government and that someone has messed things up monumentally by not preparing properly and taking appropriate action. You are responsible for yourself and your family. What are you going to do if you are infected by going to the gym? Do you think this someone you are talking about is going to come running with a helping hand? Think again.

What would I do? Everything I need to protect myself and my family while this is playing out. Yes, that includes not going to a gym and not travelling and attending events where many people get together. It will only be for 2 or 3 months, so it is really no big deal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com (Post 10450553)
I am deciding for myself. My wife and I are in complete agreement with how we are handling things; I'm not Rudy Gobert touching everyone's microphone, but I'm also not hoarding butt loads of toilet paper and boarding up my walls.

We take the news day by day and make decisions with the best available information at hand. If tomorrow I hear something else that causes me to reconsider, then so be it.

Circling back on this - again, making decisions day by day as news comes in.

We've decided to cancel the flight to Houston next week for my cousin's wedding. I'm not usually one to concern myself too much with what's trending in the news and can be pretty cavalier when others are worried about certain things, but coronavirus has gotten all too real at this point. As you have said, we've gotta do what's best for our families. :cheers:

andyxxx 14 March 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moggo (Post 10451989)
Why do we keep issuing statistics about positive cases daily when we arenít testing everyone with symptoms? Just as well use a lottery machine for the numbers as itís so inaccurate.

If you self quarantine for the 7 days you donít even have to tell anyone. Just seems crazy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree Ė the statistics are a waste of time.

As I stated in an earlier post:
We will never ever know the true infection to death rate ratio. It will always be a guess.

There will be many thousands (I would imagine many millions) who have it now and also that have already recovered from it that will never be included in these statistics.

I know it is a world problem (and needless to say, my thoughts to people affected or infected) but I think this is and has been blown out of all proportion.

superdog 14 March 2020 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bayerische (Post 10452116)
Idiots in my country continue to hoard TP. I'm lost for words. I'm seriously let down by my own.

Same.

Tons of videos here of people literally filling up their carts with it. And then others attacking them for it.

It is mind boggling. But truly, not that surprising.

c41006 14 March 2020 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benlee (Post 10452075)
The lethalness of the virus is not how high the fatality rate but its supposedly virulence, ie how easily it can spread. On average, the virus kills anywhere from 2-5% of the people it infects ( depending on demographic, healthcare quality etc ). So a country of say 20 million, which if the outbreak is left unchecked, the virus will eventually infect around 50% of the population. And that will result in 200,000 to 500,000 deaths.


It kills FAR less than 2-5%. That number fails to account for the many thousands on undetected cases out there. People who get it and get over it no problem and they just think they had a cold.

newu5er 14 March 2020 12:14 AM

Dere goes da Masters

StarvingBillionaire 14 March 2020 12:23 AM

What is it like to have Coronavirus? This patient tells:


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/healt...der/index.html


https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/asse...arge-tease.jpg





:cheers:

Ferdelious 14 March 2020 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c41006 (Post 10452229)
It kills FAR less than 2-5%. That number fails to account for the many thousands on undetected cases out there. People who get it and get over it no problem and they just think they had a cold.

But couldn't the same be said about the seasonal flu statistics? How many cases are undetected or unreported? I just think this virus is more dangerous so I'm taking extra precautions.

Jona 14 March 2020 12:30 AM

People need to be informed but not panic. I think the media has tried to keep people aware but I think as a group there is overreaction. My son works in a high end grocery store and has been called in at 5 AM to help manage the rush on cleaning supplies, water, terlet paper, etc. No one needs 16 containers of anti-bacterial wipes.

The 24/7 news and social media have diminished people's ability and desire to think for themselves and have whipped up hype and hysteria. We've seen it in the watch market and now with this virus.

uscmatt99 14 March 2020 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com (Post 10452141)
Circling back on this - again, making decisions day by day as news comes in.

We've decided to cancel the flight to Houston next week for my cousin's wedding. I'm not usually one to concern myself too much with what's trending in the news and can be pretty cavalier when others are worried about certain things, but coronavirus has gotten all too real at this point. As you have said, we've gotta do what's best for our families. :cheers:

I'm glad to hear this. There are two benefits. You'll potentially spare yourself and your wife a nasty bug. You'll potentially spare an unsuspecting person in a lesser state of health an untimely demise.

My family is pretty similar to yours, we travel a lot and take the kids places that other families may be uncomfortable with. But this is something I'm taking very seriously. I think we will look back on this as a once in a generation crisis, and we will be happy we did all we could to prevent harm to fellow Americans and world citizens at large :cheers:

joeychitwood 14 March 2020 12:49 AM

As of today, 13,000 tests for Coronavirus have been done in the US, a country of over 300 million peole. This is an outrage bordering on criminality.

We will have to confront the issues in our health system for future problems. Since American hospital systems make the most money when 95-100% at occupancy, they have no surge protection. Testing is non-existent. One can only assume that novel medications for treating these illnesses will be just as impossible to obtain quickly.

I was an ER physician in the US for 27 years, and I constantly had to remind people that we aren't even on the top 25 list of countries with the best citizen health. But we are #1 in spending on healthcare.

Bryant Park 14 March 2020 01:15 AM

UK govt moves away from contain to delay. In other words toothpaste out of the tube.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...and-into-delay

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elay-the-worst

breitlings 14 March 2020 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bayerische (Post 10452116)
Idiots in my country continue to hoard TP. I'm lost for words. I'm seriously let down by my own.

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10452224)
Same.

Tons of videos here of people literally filling up their carts with it. And then others attacking them for it.

It is mind boggling. But truly, not that surprising.

I saw a meme today. Girl with tons of TP caption: can someone tell her its corona virus not diarrhea.

nda 14 March 2020 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10452318)
As of today, 13,000 tests for Coronavirus have been done in the US, a country of over 300 million peole. .

I did ask this question a while back - the testing figure seems woefully small. Is it a cost thing?

Testing is vital to know the extent of infection, how it is spreading and how best to manage resources. Otherwise the authorities are shooting in the dark.

Complacency and conspiracy theorists are not the way forward.

fmc000 14 March 2020 01:22 AM

Bolsonaro tested positive.

breitlings 14 March 2020 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10452318)
As of today, 13,000 tests for Coronavirus have been done in the US, a country of over 300 million peole. This is an outrage bordering on criminality.

We will have to confront the issues in our health system for future problems. Since American hospital systems make the most money when 95-100% at occupancy, they have no surge protection. Testing is non-existent. One can only assume that novel medications for treating these illnesses will be just as impossible to obtain quickly.

I was an ER physician in the US for 27 years, and I constantly had to remind people that we aren't even on the top 25 list of countries with the best citizen health. But we are #1 in spending on healthcare.

I was under the impression that it was a result of averages with some getting the best care in the world and some receiving care that was worse than most developed countries.

I think we all agree testing is bad. Overall though I don’t think we could have responded faster or stronger and still have been reasonable, from a layman perspective. I think shutting down travel are extremely strong steps and a coordinated effort by private and public entities to diminish large gatherings.

Kids here are getting ipads to start to prepare for potentially closed schools.

joeychitwood 14 March 2020 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by breitlings (Post 10452410)
I was under the impression that it was a result of averages with some getting the best care in the world and some receiving care that was worse than most developed countries.

That is true. And from a public health standpoint, the result is that money decides who gets the best healthcare here, and our citizen health nationwide remains far below world standards.

c41006 14 March 2020 01:30 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ferdelious (Post 10452271)
But couldn't the same be said about the seasonal flu statistics? How many cases are undetected or unreported? I just think this virus is more dangerous so I'm taking extra precautions.



I agree it you on the threat level compared to the flu. It seems to be more dangerous. I was calling into question the 2-5% mortality rate because that is highly inflated over reality and people seeing numbers like that is likely leading to a lot of this panic.

nda 14 March 2020 01:30 AM

As of March 9th, the US has tested 26 people per million of population - roughly the same rate as Vietnam. Italy is about 1,000 per million and France 182.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...id-19-testing/


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