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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

3 Putt 30 January 2020 12:13 PM

Thanks Michael....:cheers:

envuks 30 January 2020 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by envuks (Post 10329349)
1/27 ~12:00noon ET: ~2600 cases, 80 deaths.
1/28 ~4600 cases, 107 deaths
1/29 ~midnight ET: ~6000 cases, 132 deaths

1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

Fat_ninja 30 January 2020 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by envuks (Post 10331894)
1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

Yíall know thereís charts on those links right?

daOnlyBG 30 January 2020 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 (Post 10329099)
Am I the only one not worried??

I am not.

People call the spread of the coronavirus "exponential," and there's just so, so much wrong with that (simply because something is non-linear doesn't make it exponential).

Refer back to the SARS spread figure from earlier in the thread and compare the shape of that curve to this one.

Also, people fail to take into consideration the coronavirus' mortality rate and how it compares with... you know, the general flu.

Ichiran 30 January 2020 09:26 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Has anyone seen such long queues at your local hospital during peace times, with patients reporting symptoms of fever and breathing difficulties? Many more were turned away because the hospitals have no beds. Does this looks like general flu to you?

Attachment 1105846

Way too early to discuss mortality rate arising from this virus at this point in time.

Zakalwe 30 January 2020 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10332399)
Has anyone seen such long queues at your local hospital during peace times, with patients reporting symptoms of fever and breathing difficulties? Many more were turned away because the hospitals have no beds. Does this looks like general flu to you?

Attachment 1105846

Way too early to discuss mortality rate arising from this virus at this point in time.

The photo doesn’t prove anything about the virus, but it does prove the power of panic.

I strongly suspect many of the people in the picture don’t actually need to be there - regardless of the eventual mortality rate the majority of healthy individuals who contract this virus will suffer a mild, self-limiting respiratory infection.

I’m already seeing people - in the UK - presenting with simple colds but worried about coronavirus because they were on a plane with some Chinese people a month ago.

As a thought experiment, imagine if Trump were to wake up today and on a whim announce (erroneously) that coronavirus was spreading rapidly through NYC. Then imagine what ER waiting rooms in Manhattan would look like in the afternoon.

Ichiran 30 January 2020 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10332526)
The photo doesn’t prove anything about the virus, but it does prove the power of panic.

I strongly suspect many of the people in the picture don’t actually need to be there - regardless of the eventual mortality rate the majority of healthy individuals who contract this virus will suffer a mild, self-limiting respiratory infection.

I’m already seeing people - in the UK - presenting with simple colds but worried about coronavirus because they were on a plane with some Chinese people a month ago.

As a thought experiment, imagine if Trump were to wake up today and on a whim announce (erroneously) that coronavirus was spreading rapidly through NYC. Then imagine what ER waiting rooms in Manhattan would look like in the afternoon.

You reckon it's just mental? All in the mind?

Including all confirmed 180 deaths (increasing by 30 daily, still increasing) due to this virus over the past 5 days within a city? That's mild for you?

Zakalwe 30 January 2020 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10332627)
You reckon it's just mental? All in the mind?

To be clear, I don’t doubt the potential seriousness of this outbreak. Nobody actually knows yet. Personally I suspect the doomsday merchants are wrong, as they usually are but that’s just me. The comparison with ‘flu is made because both are potentially serious respiratory infections yet ‘flu, which kills hundreds of thousands annually - i.e. is confirmed to be deadly serious - provokes little fear in the media or amongst the public. Yet this coronavirus outbreak, whose severity is unknown (though the mortality rate quoted thus far is almost certainly a gross overestimate because the true number of infections is inevitably much higher than the confirmed number - many people who contract it will be invisible to statistics and wouldn’t even know they have it) is headline news in places where it shouldn’t be news at all.

My response to your post was to point out that ER attendances are not a reliable proxy for severity of illness. It is, for example, estimated that up to 50% of casualty attendances in the U.K. are unnecessary.

It stands to reason that if you tell your population that there is a deadly infection whose symptoms are cough, coryza and fever and it’s spreading rapidly, a lot of people who have minor illnesses will turn up unnecessarily to hospital. It is one of several reasons why the media response to this phenomenon is irresponsible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10332627)

Including all confirmed 180 deaths (increasing by 30 daily, still increasing) due to this virus over the past 5 days within a city? That's mild for you?

I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

LandWatch 31 January 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10332655)
To be clear, I donít doubt the potential seriousness of this outbreak. Nobody actually knows yet. Personally I suspect the doomsday merchants are wrong, as they usually are but thatís just me. The comparison with Ďflu is made because both are potentially serious respiratory infections yet Ďflu, which kills hundreds of thousands annually - i.e. is confirmed to be deadly serious - provokes little fear in the media or amongst the public. Yet this coronavirus outbreak, whose severity is unknown (though the mortality rate quoted thus far is almost certainly a gross overestimate because the true number of infections is inevitably much higher than the confirmed number - many people who contract it will be invisible to statistics and wouldnít even know they have it) is headline news in places where it shouldnít be news at all.

My response to your post was to point out that ER attendances are not a reliable proxy for severity of illness. It is, for example estimated that up to 50% on casualty attendances in the U.K. are unnecessary.

It stands to reason that if you tell your population that there is a deadly infection whose symptoms are cough, coryza and fever spreading rapidly, a lot of people who have minor illnesses will turn up unnecessarily to hospital. It is one of several reasons why the media response to this phenomenon is irresponsible.



Iím happy to debate you in good faith but Iím out of here if youíre going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ĎFlu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. Iíve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.


Itís gratifying to read a balanced assessment. :cheers:

pickettt 31 January 2020 12:15 AM

No one seems to be interested in the worst measles outbreak in the past 30 years anymore.

Zakalwe 31 January 2020 04:11 AM

For those interested, a detailed analysis of the first 99 patients treated for the infection at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan has been published in the Lancet medical journal.

locutus49 31 January 2020 04:27 AM

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10329073)
Itís accellerating


Bigblu10 31 January 2020 04:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locutus49 (Post 10333334)
I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Aren't you overreacting just a little bit? US residents are urged to carry on their daily life activities and not be concerned. There are only a handful of cases so far and the CDC is on top of it. There are no deaths in the US.

Fat_ninja 31 January 2020 04:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locutus49 (Post 10333334)
I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Oy vey gavalt

hashem wills it

Jim Smyth 31 January 2020 06:27 AM

Yowza.......................https://www.dailywire.com/news/thous...ign=benshapiro

singe89 31 January 2020 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locutus49 (Post 10333334)
I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

:rofl: every time I go back to Irvine I feel the same way and that happens to be where the reported case is.

MasonDixon 31 January 2020 06:50 AM

The CDC has confirmed the first person-to-person transmission in the United States. It's the husband of the patient in Chicago.

East Bay Rider 31 January 2020 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swils8610 (Post 10329120)
I’m not worried about it living in US. The scary thing is how fast it’s spreading and the amount of people that affected by it. The idea of how fast it’s spreading over several continents is insane. A virus like this could potentially wipe out millions of people world wide.


I agree. It's the incubation time that's offputting. Someone gets infected last week in China then touched something that someone else touches before boarding a plane. That person sneezed and infected more, one of whom may have visited your company on business a week ago or more. How would anyone know? It's a game of telephone, "pass the infection" style.
It is worrisome.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3 Putt (Post 10331344)
... As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown. I know a few things about China too. Stay safe. I hope there is "clear overreaction" as you indicate.


I'm very sorry to hear this. I hope they all get the medical attention they need and that they recover soon.

Rock 31 January 2020 09:22 PM

It is clear that health epidemics of this kind are a global phenomenon resulting from the level of international travel that has become the norm, and that viral epidemics will continue to be a common event in the future.
What concerns me most is that governments (certainly the Australian government) have apparently learned little form previous outbreaks.
Several weeks down the track health authorities are now thinking it would have been a good idea to have started tracking returning citizens from Day 1 rather than Day 21.
The Immigration and Customers Officers in our international airports have threatened strike action because nobody thought about whether they should be provided with protective gear.
Up until now, the Federal government has spent most of it's energy assuring citizens that there was no need to be alarmed. Their lack of a plan and any timely action has meant that now a lot of people are alarmed.
I am intrigued to learn that some people think there is no need to be concerned because a lot of people are killed annually by many other means. I wonder if they might be a bit more concerned if it was themselves or a close family member who was a 'statistic'.

Fat_ninja 31 January 2020 09:25 PM

The mortality rate is not being captured inappropriately. You need to adjust for the incubation period

Runnin' Rebel 1 February 2020 02:58 AM

AA pilots filed law suit yesterday refusing to fly to China. Effective today all flights canceled to Chinese mainland until late March

AA was going to stop February 9 but then the lawsuit was filed

Ichiran 1 February 2020 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10332655)
I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

I noted you have highlighted the 600,000 annual deaths from flu, which was an estimated made in a Lancet report and was also referenced by WHO. I have no issue with that.

Yesterday, the same WHO has announced the 2019 coronavirus as a global health emergency. WHO†defines a global health emergency as an "extraordinary event" that is "serious, unusual or unexpected".

Now, I'm pretty sure the team of medical professors, scientists, microbiologists, virologists and doctors in WHO and in China know exactly what is a seasonal flu or influenza, and I'm sure they have the competency to understand what are the differences between a seasonal flu and the 2019 coronavirus. I'm also pretty sure there were mortalities arising from seasonal flu in China, and they must have seen and experienced it year after year.

From my very layman perspective, this 2019 coronavirus seems to have a higher infection rate, pneumonia and mortality rate in the community, and it kills the middle-aged adults more so than the common cold.

And we are just in the beginning stage of this outbreak which as you said, could become more serious as it progresses. It's extremely early days to call this 2019 coronavirus no worse than a "normal flu".

By the way, I also have had cold at least twice, but I won't use that in a debate on a mystery virus.

Fat_ninja 1 February 2020 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10337951)
I noted you have highlighted the 600,000 annual deaths from flu, which was an estimated made in a Lancet report and was also referenced by WHO. I have no issue with that.

Yesterday, the same WHO has announced the 2019 coronavirus as a global health emergency. WHO†defines a global health emergency as an "extraordinary event" that is "serious, unusual or unexpected".

Now, I'm pretty sure the team of medical professors, scientists, microbiologists, virologists and doctors in WHO and in China know exactly what is a seasonal flu or influenza, and I'm sure they have the competency to understand what are the differences between a seasonal flu and the 2019 coronavirus. I'm also pretty sure there were mortalities arising from seasonal flu in China, and they must have seen and experienced it year after year.

From my very layman perspective, this 2019 coronavirus seems to have a higher infection rate, pneumonia and mortality rate in the community, and it kills the middle-aged adults more so than the common cold.

And we are just in the beginning stage of this outbreak which as you said, could become more serious as it progresses. It's extremely early days to call this 2019 coronavirus no worse than a "normal flu".

By the way, I also have had cold at least twice, but I won't use that in a debate on a mystery virus.

Stay safe buddy. Itís also in NYC now I think. The India case worries me because I donít think they can mobilize as quick as the central govt in China can.

Ichiran 1 February 2020 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10337976)
Stay safe buddy. Itís also in NYC now I think. The India case worries me because I donít think they can mobilize as quick as the central govt in China can.

You stay safe too bro, and keep your family safe. :cheers:
It's popping up and spreading to new places. With the incubation period of up to 14 days, and doctors opining that the virus can spread without symptoms, it is certainly a concern.

hideki4 1 February 2020 04:37 PM

Ok but seriously. How will the coronavirus impact Patek values?

Fat_ninja 1 February 2020 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hideki4 (Post 10338225)
Ok but seriously. How will the coronavirus impact Patek values?

Chinese recession, its a big hit to GDP... yuan devaluation which has happened already... people canít go to work. Etc etc.

Boothroyd 2 February 2020 01:58 AM

People seem very sanguine about this not impacting the US. There are already cases here, with transmission between people.

A new virius that can be transmitted between humans, for which we have no natural immunity, while also mutate over time. The side effects of that mutation could be catastrophic.

SARS didn't take the world down, and coronavirus likely won't either. But read up on the "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918. Sooner or later, it will happen again.

Arcticsub 2 February 2020 03:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boothroyd (Post 10339098)
People seem very sanguine about this not impacting the US. There are already cases here, with transmission between people.

A new virius that can be transmitted between humans, for which we have no natural immunity, while also mutate over time. The side effects of that mutation could be catastrophic.

SARS didn't take the world down, and coronavirus likely won't either. But read up on the "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918. Sooner or later, it will happen again.

Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

Lot of posts in this topic saying that we don't know the potential impact of this new virus. They're right. However, it's impact has already been enormous. A large chunk of China is in lockdown. The other parts are slowly grinding to a standstill.

I think the world economy is in big trouble. I hope I'm wrong, but the ncov2019 looks to be incredibly virulent.

pickettt 2 February 2020 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcticsub (Post 10339450)
Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

3% is either 50 million or 100 million, it can't be both. With that kind of deviation it's hard to conclude that it has the same mortality rate.

bayerische 2 February 2020 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pickettt (Post 10339474)
3% is either 50 million or 100 million, it can't be both. With that kind of deviation it's hard to conclude that it has the same mortality rate.

Good one.

Burnettwatches 2 February 2020 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 (Post 10329099)
Am I the only one not worried??

you're not alone bud

Arcticsub 2 February 2020 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcticsub (Post 10339450)
Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

Lot of posts in this topic saying that we don't know the potential impact of this new virus. They're right. However, it's impact has already been enormous. A large chunk of China is in lockdown. The other parts are slowly grinding to a standstill.

I think the world economy is in big trouble. I hope I'm wrong, but the ncov2019 looks to be incredibly virulent.

Should have added that the 1918 Spanish flu had a 10% fatality rate (not 3% as I initially erroneously posted).

Boothroyd 2 February 2020 11:23 AM

The additional tragedy to the Spanish flu is that it kicked one's immune system into overdrive. The young and healthy had the most robust immune systems. It disproportionately killed younger people as a result.

3 Putt 2 February 2020 12:50 PM

People will be indifferent and casual about this virus until it hits their backyard. Forget the mortality rate..catching this virus is painful with a long recovery. Not to mention, if you get it, chances are you will infect your family and watch them suffer through it too. Its a big pain in the ass for many reasons including economic and lifestyle.

I've seen it up close and it is causing much chaos in China...which will translate to the world economy. Vegatable prices have almost tripled in the area I live due to price gouging and reduced supply chains. The Chinese gov. has ordered companies to remain closed until Feb. 10 to keep people isolated longer. Yesterday, our provincial government ordered that unless all employees wear approved masks, a business cannot open on Feb. 10th.

There is a shortage of masks in China. China has imported more than 56 million masks and now asking the EU for help getting supplies. I need 80,000 masks to operate for 60 days. We have a 5 day supply. The magnitude of the hit to the economy will depend on how long this virus spreads without confidence in its management. It affect everybody in more ways than a potential mortality rate.

A971 2 February 2020 05:46 PM

Hong Kong just closed schools for a month.

Itís getting real...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fat_ninja 2 February 2020 11:23 PM

Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305


SARS was in the 700’s

Ichiran 2 February 2020 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10341848)
Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305

SARS was in the 700’s

Wuhan was locked down on 23 Jan, and since the incubation period is 2 weeks, the first important date is 7 Feb. In theory, the infections should drop substantially after 7 Feb. 5 more days - finger crossed.

Due to the lack of infection control segregation rooms, I understand a lot of suspected people are quarantined at home. Due to potential infection of family members at home, the 2nd wave will be another 2 weeks after 6 Feb, ie 21 Feb. After that the numbers should really come down.

If there is a 3rd wave, then God Help us all.

Fat_ninja 2 February 2020 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10341889)
Wuhan was locked down on 23 Jan, and since the incubation period is 2 weeks, the first important date is 7 Feb. In theory, the infections should drop substantially after 7 Feb. 5 more days - finger crossed.

Due to the lack of hospital beds, I understand a lot of suspected people are quarantined at home. The 2nd wave will be another 2 weeks after 6 Feb, ie 21 Feb. After that the numbers should really come down.

If there is a 3rd wave, then God Bless us all.

Itís in NYC and Boston as well

Ichiran 2 February 2020 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10341923)
Itís in NYC and Boston as well

A recent study has indicated the R-nought as 4.08, and I read the latest case in NY is a 20+ youngish individual?

Stay safe bro.

Fat_ninja 3 February 2020 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10341945)
A recent study has indicated the R-nought as 4.08, and I read the latest case in NY is a 20+ youngish individual?

Stay safe bro.

I havenít had a chance to read up on it...yet but yeah getting real. I wanted to get masks but my team didnít think we needed it. Now itís back ordered. Told the wife to get me some


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