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-   -   Will we Rolex type scarcity (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=830825)

badlarry 29 November 2021 09:09 AM

Will we Rolex type scarcity
 
Does anyone with more experience with omega as a brand, ever see the scarcity and secondary market price jump happening as weíve seen with Rolex? Maybe not every model but speed/sea master?


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brandrea 29 November 2021 09:21 AM

Perhaps with certain classic references like the speedy professional.

Breizh 29 November 2021 09:40 AM

It’s all supply and demand.
Will only happen when enough people want the speedy or seamaster.
The only thing Omega lacks is the status and instagram recognition of Rolex (just need John Meyer to be spotted with a Speedy :-)

MILGAUSS88 29 November 2021 10:36 AM

If you are talking about vintage Speedmasters, I think that's already happened.

If you are talking about empty cases at the AD, and having to pay over retail for a new Speedmasters, then No. I don't see that happening.
I think Omega follows a different business plan where they create the supply to meet demand.

Hollie_Rollie 29 November 2021 10:44 AM

Not at all.

Donít forget, the faux* Rolex scarcity is still in its infancy. 2016/2017 you could get pretty much anything in the states.

*not scarce if products are available in the hundreds on gray market.


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texasmade 29 November 2021 11:34 AM

Won’t happen with regular production models. This will only happen with certain special edition models. You’re already seeing it with the Snoopy 50 and EW321.

mquarter 29 November 2021 12:36 PM

Their strategy seems to be:

- Certain limited edition/product NASA-/space- themed watches to be kept scarce to build more publicity and brand prestige

- Standard models like Moonwatch to remain accessible to give people an actual foothold into the brand

77T 29 November 2021 01:21 PM

The Omega way has a great pressure relief valve for buyers. That is, DTC on their website.


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YankeeClipper 29 November 2021 09:53 PM

Agree with pieces like EW321, Snoopy, and maybe a few Bond references. Omega is an integral part of a huge portfolio of brands, Rolex is not; Omega needs to shift units, whereas Rolex can afford to move at their own pace.

C0d 30 November 2021 04:24 AM

Five years ago there was no Rolex scarcity except for Pepsi and Daytona.

Three years ago Omega was second fiddle and laughed at for its 30% discounts.

Last year we could not find Snoopy and EW321 on the shelves and Omega discounts are lesser than before.

Who know where we will be in 2-3 years from now.

Money in the bank is worthless.

Inflation is all time high.

Its not just about Rolex, Omega etc anymore. People will park their money wherever they can as its better than the bank. They can is operative word.

Rising tide lifts all boats.

SLWoodster 30 November 2021 05:14 AM

Probably thousands at this point.

bonovox 30 November 2021 09:43 AM

It would be fun to see. I'll be watching :chuckle:

Tim Plains 30 November 2021 09:47 AM

Omega watches are fantastic but the company lacks the prestige Rolex has, so no.

logo 30 November 2021 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C0d (Post 11840272)
Five years ago there was no Rolex scarcity except for Pepsi and Daytona.

Three years ago Omega was second fiddle and laughed at for its 30% discounts.

Last year we could not find Snoopy and EW321 on the shelves and Omega discounts are lesser than before.

Who know where we will be in 2-3 years from now.

Money in the bank is worthless.

Inflation is all time high.

Its not just about Rolex, Omega etc anymore. People will park their money wherever they can as its better than the bank. They can is operative word.

Rising tide lifts all boats.


100% agree with everything here.

1William 30 November 2021 10:05 PM

The money to be made is through the movement of units[watches] and Omega makes no more money for the hype and Grey market shenanigan's than they do day to day. If anything, they are going to do better that you can buy the watches when you go into the store or boutique. I believe that Omega is cultivating a new buyer and in the future many will love the brand and the number of models offered as much or more than Rolex or others. I am weary of the Rolex hype and I own 14 of them. I wear my Speedmasters, 1861/3861, as much or more than any of my watches and I enjoy them in a way that a 30 year collector does when you have been down the hype road.

ap1 1 December 2021 12:49 AM

Nope, only a few key ltd pieces but I don’t need another brand with no supply so I’m ok with it

majidessa 1 December 2021 03:36 AM

I don't think Omega lacks prestige, they are not cheap and their new boutiques and marketing is top notch. They have strong heritage and are their watches are well made and well respected. Even their watch boxes are more elegant than Rolex.

Fact is Grey dealers are to large extent behind the Rolex price inflation through dealer to dealer transaction, moreover, some ADs are playing the scarcity game and sell watches to Grey dealers.

htc8p 7 December 2021 04:58 PM

it's omega's time to shine now that rolex out of the market.

i think they would rather get more market share than increase prices

John Sheridan 8 December 2021 04:50 AM

455 viewing the Rolex forum right now, 21 viewing Omega, that tells the story, very little hype attached to Omega.

1665fan 8 December 2021 05:20 AM

Only the snoopy……not much else and good luck getting one

texasmade 8 December 2021 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1665fan (Post 11854534)
Only the snoopyÖÖnot much else and good luck getting one

Ed White 321 also.

MILGAUSS88 8 December 2021 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Sheridan (Post 11854490)
455 viewing the Rolex forum right now, 21 viewing Omega, that tells the story, very little hype attached to Omega.

You are looking at an Omega sub forum on a Rolex forum.
I don't think that's an apple for apple comparison.

I just looked at an Omega forum and it had 2100 people on it and there were only 1600 on the Rolex forum at the same time.

Still not an indicator of hype however.

C0d 8 December 2021 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88 (Post 11854630)
You are looking at an Omega sub forum on a Rolex forum.
I don't think that's an apple for apple comparison.

I just looked at an Omega forum and it had 2100 people on it and there were only 1600 on the Rolex forum at the same time.

Still not an indicator of hype however.

WUS which is the biggest watch forum, Omega forum is almost twice the size and is also much nicer (crowd).

Rolex forum there is really a Tudor forum (most rolex boys are here) and is mildly atrocious.

Take it for its worth.

badlarry 8 December 2021 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88 (Post 11854630)
You are looking at an Omega sub forum on a Rolex forum.
I don't think that's an apple for apple comparison.

I just looked at an Omega forum and it had 2100 people on it and there were only 1600 on the Rolex forum at the same time.

Still not an indicator of hype however.


Maybe not an indicator but tells us something about the market.


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MILGAUSS88 8 December 2021 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badlarry (Post 11854919)
Maybe not an indicator but tells us something about the market.
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I think all it tells us is the percentage of people on a ROLEX Forum, that are interested in Rolex versus Omega.

If not, then why aren't Omegas more valuable than Rolex? By my observation, there were more people viewing the Omega forum than the Rolex forum.

If it was an indicator of market value or desirability, why aren't there large Patek Philippe or Richard Mille forums.

FP Journe is smoking hot right now. I cannot find a forum dedicated to them. Just a sub forum under Timezone.

Sandpit 9 December 2021 05:21 PM

Not really, I think there's too much availability.

I don't see Omega as a direct competitor of Rolex. In fact, I don't really see any direct competitors for Rolex. They are (in my opinion) fairly unrivalled in the world of 'affordable' luxury sports watches.

Omega on the other hand I think has much more competition where people are more likely to cross-shop. That is aside from certain watches such as the Speedie line. I think somebody that wants a speedie, wants a speedie.

Whilst this is a bit of a "my AD said".....well my AD recently told me that the two most asked for watches are the old 1861 hesalite speedie and the Snoopy. I was wearing my 1861 at the time and unbeknown to me he advised that people are flipping the speedies for over retail now. I haven't checked that out, but it's just what he told me.

Because of this they've now ceased all discounts on the Speedie lines and they're running a waitlist for them.

Fleetlord 9 December 2021 05:57 PM

Market loves limited Speedmasters and likes Bond SE Seamsters / regular Speedys.
Ploprofs are seeing some interest.

The rest of Omega lineup? Market sees them as irrelevant and has no interest in whatsoever. They could stop making them and it wouldn't even be noticed by many.

Andad 9 December 2021 06:27 PM

Omega have some older references that are sought after.

Now they have a lot of models and LE’s.

They still have the occasional sought after modern model but prices are going up.

Rapidly.

anonymousmoose 10 December 2021 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badlarry (Post 11839144)
Does anyone with more experience with omega as a brand, ever see the scarcity and secondary market price jump happening as weíve seen with Rolex? Maybe not every model but speed/sea master?


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I doubt it yet anything could happen. Omegas are everywhere and so many variants for each model. This puts some people off, I truely can't see anything wrong with more colours and choice - I bought the one I like best and left the ones I didn't alone.

I also don't know how Omega would go if they tried to create an artificially supply vs demand situation. Almost everyone has heard 'Rolex' and associates it with high end luxury - Omega isn't there.

majidessa 11 December 2021 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anonymousmoose (Post 11858483)
I doubt it yet anything could happen. Omegas are everywhere and so many variants for each model. This puts some people off, I truely can't see anything wrong with more colours and choice - I bought the one I like best and left the ones I didn't alone.

I also don't know how Omega would go if they tried to create an artificially supply vs demand situation. Almost everyone has heard 'Rolex' and associates it with high end luxury - Omega isn't there.



They can't manipulate the market as of yet, in order to do so they need to build more on their success, moreover, some models are insignificant or not in high demand, others need to be refined and trimmed.

However in 5 to 10 years they might be a real competitor for Rolex if they played their cards right with strong marketing.

HiBoost 11 December 2021 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie (Post 11839266)
Not at all.

Donít forget, the faux* Rolex scarcity is still in its infancy. 2016/2017 you could get pretty much anything in the states.

*not scarce if products are available in the hundreds on gray market.


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This is a logical fallacy. Products are available via other sellers due to their dramatically increased price. An equilibrium is reached where most of the market cries "uncle" and refuses to pay that, but a few do. It in no way suggests there is actually supply which approaches demand.

Forget about watches, let's consider the release of a new Playstation. In those first weeks, you can't walk into a normal retail store anywhere in America and find one just sitting on the shelves. Yet there are dozens of them on ebay - at 2-3x MSRP. Does that mean this is all fake? Sony is just holding back? Or Bob on ebay actually bought 1M systems and is hoarding them? No, of course not. Demand far exceeds supply, and the few lucky people who did happen to find one at their local Wal-mart are now trying to make a quick buck.

In the Rolex world the demand has continued to build and the supply has not notably increased, so we've been stuck in "Playstation release week" mode for years...

badlarry 11 December 2021 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiBoost (Post 11859523)
This is a logical fallacy. Products are available via other sellers due to their dramatically increased price. An equilibrium is reached where most of the market cries "uncle" and refuses to pay that, but a few do. It in no way suggests there is actually supply which approaches demand.

Forget about watches, let's consider the release of a new Playstation. In those first weeks, you can't walk into a normal retail store anywhere in America and find one just sitting on the shelves. Yet there are dozens of them on ebay - at 2-3x MSRP. Does that mean this is all fake? Sony is just holding back? Or Bob on ebay actually bought 1M systems and is hoarding them? No, of course not. Demand far exceeds supply, and the few lucky people who did happen to find one at their local Wal-mart are now trying to make a quick buck.

In the Rolex world the demand has continued to build and the supply has not notably increased, so we've been stuck in "Playstation release week" mode for years...


I agree with the exception to the play station situation, the Sneaker heads that have all the bots that go online and grab all the new sneaker releases adapted and started doing it with PlayStation and Xbox thatís a huge reason those are so difficult to get.


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HiBoost 11 December 2021 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badlarry (Post 11859554)
I agree with the exception to the play station situation, the Sneaker heads that have all the bots that go online and grab all the new sneaker releases adapted and started doing it with PlayStation and Xbox that’s a huge reason those are so difficult to get.


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Right, the mechanics of how the few "lucky" people get their hands on at item at retail pricing is going to change, but the point is that seeing something "readily available" online does not mean that it's a farce that the store doesn't have one.

Case in point, any day of the week I can "easily" find and purchase a green dial Patek 5711. Of course the price will be 13x MSRP, but that is what it has taken to achieve the equilibrium I mentioned. Every product will be different. Patek pricing makes Daytona pricing seem downright reasonable. But both share the common trait of there not being even remotely as many available as would be bought if all pricing were MSRP - i.e. demand >> supply.

knighty88 11 December 2021 03:36 AM

I hope not, but I think the 'scarcity' is actually down to flipping and greys operating in the middle... if you look around, the 'hot models' can be seen everywhere for inflated prices - so ask yourself if there really is an actual shortage.

So long as the flippers stay away from Omega, no problem :)

Greglaw 11 December 2021 02:25 PM

Yeah...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by John Sheridan (Post 11854490)
455 viewing the Rolex forum right now, 21 viewing Omega, that tells the story, very little hype attached to Omega.

And 440 of the 455 are likely asking or readying about value, investment, and other important watch topics, because of their love for the brand, itís history, and seeking keen insight on all things Rolex...please.

Know1isgod 25 December 2021 05:57 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 1262923

Don't care about hype or whatever. This past summer, depending on what I was doing (and where), I reached for these more often than some of the Rolex pieces I own. I actually traded an older YM 40 Platinum for the White Face 300M AND a Tudor GMT to boot. I pray Omega stays attainable and "under the radar" per se.

7enderbender 26 December 2021 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Plains (Post 11840769)
Omega watches are fantastic but the company lacks the prestige Rolex has, so no.

I donít think that is still true. The quality these days is as good or better and people recognize that. Retail prices have gone up accordingly.

7enderbender 26 December 2021 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knighty88 (Post 11859615)
I hope not, but I think the 'scarcity' is actually down to flipping and greys operating in the middle... if you look around, the 'hot models' can be seen everywhere for inflated prices - so ask yourself if there really is an actual shortage.

So long as the flippers stay away from Omega, no problem :)

I hear that argument here a lot and it doesnít make sense to me. The demand outpacing the supply is real. I donít see what any of this could have to do with flipping. In fact, flippers can only exist on the above scenario, but not create it.
Rolex cannot and will not reasonably increase supply. I donít think thatís possible or a wise decision with regards to actual and perceived quality. Or as simple as not having enough qualified staff (just like most industries at the moment).
People can and do sell their new watches at a premium to people who want them even more. What this really shows is that Rolex retail prices are way too low. Now would it be a good long-term idea to bring prices up to a level that meats the demand? Probably not.

I was looking for charts yesterday and havenít found them yet on price development of key Omega and Rolex models over time. Couldnít find them yet.
All I know is that I just paid last yearís retail price for a used Speedmaster 1861 (discontinued). And I was thrilled because I had prepared myself for having to pay more for a pristine specimen. The new model is now way over 6K for a watch that was half that or less not all too long ago.


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