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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

mgsooner 29 January 2020 09:56 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
I searched and did not locate an existing thread about this, beyond those essentially asking “will this outbreak get me a Daytona quicker?” J/K. Sort of.

Anyway, I figure it’s high time for a thread. This evening’s development:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/whit...-outbreak.html

Fat_ninja 29 January 2020 10:19 AM

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721721

No there isn’t a thread on this buddy

Fat_ninja 29 January 2020 10:31 AM

John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

https://i.imgur.com/ylBrgpb.jpg

mgsooner 29 January 2020 10:44 AM

Reuters update

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZR0CF

RW16610 29 January 2020 11:39 AM

I really hope they're able to up the current efforts and try prevent the spread of this virus. With conformed cases in Canada it opened my eyes. I'm always using lysol wipes, frequently washing my hands, avoid touching my face, etc anyway.

Ichiran 29 January 2020 12:27 PM

1 Attachment(s)
The number of infected people has gone up exponentially over the past few days. Here is a graph showing comparison between Wuhan virus and SARS.
Attachment 1105392

I have read a Xinhua report that this virus is transmitted mainly through air droplets, but touching can also spread the virus.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138739435.htm

Fat_ninja 29 January 2020 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10329056)
The number of infected people has gone up exponentially over the past few days. Here is a graph showing comparison between Wuhan virus and SARS.
Attachment 1105392

I have read a Xinhua report that this virus is transmitted mainly through air droplets, but touching can also spread the virus.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138739435.htm

Itís accellerating

Ichiran 29 January 2020 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10329073)
Itís accellerating

Yep, the yellow vertical line is disturbing. I wish all those infected people speedy recovery. :concerned

Knappo 1307 29 January 2020 12:50 PM

Am I the only one not worried??

gnuyork 29 January 2020 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 (Post 10329099)
Am I the only one not worried??

Easy to say from the USA. Put yourself in their shoes.

swils8610 29 January 2020 01:01 PM

Iím not worried about it living in US. The scary thing is how fast itís spreading and the amount of people that affected by it. The idea of how fast itís spreading over several continents is insane. A virus like this could potentially wipe out millions of people world wide.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

JasoninDenver 29 January 2020 02:25 PM

The concern is two fold. First, any virus with a 3% mortality rate is a bear. Despite this, the overall impact it will have on hospital capacity is most likely what motivated the China quarantine. A very high number of infected patients develop pneumonia. Consequently, this can easily overwhelm the medical resources of any community.

envuks 29 January 2020 03:08 PM

Here is another info graphic tracking coronavirus. I’ve previously posted this, but it warrants reposting

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

envuks 29 January 2020 03:11 PM

1/27 ~12:00noon ET: ~2600 cases, 80 deaths.
1/28 ~4600 cases, 107 deaths
1/29 ~midnight ET: ~6000 cases, 132 deaths


It’s really picking up pace.

MikeMike 29 January 2020 06:05 PM

The mortality rate is in line with the influenza death rate in China (around 1.6-2.6%). There are currently around 1.2 billion people in China; that there currently just over 6,000 cases is statistically irrelevant. People should be concerned, but as of right now there is an overreaction. That it is Spring Festival made the situation worse. Arguably this is why the Chinese government imposed a lockdown on Wuhan etc. There will be a lot more cases and deaths (just like any major flu outbreak), but right now the level of paranoia and fear is quite breathtaking.

Trailboss516 29 January 2020 10:24 PM

+1 to MikeMike

Google tells me there are 3,287 automobile deaths per year in the world. Why aren't we freaking out about that? Right because we are used to it. No longer news.

News is sensational, we all love a good story. Fear and anxiety sell newspaper and people click articles.

Concern, yes, but let's keep things in perspective.

Fat_ninja 29 January 2020 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeMike (Post 10329494)
The mortality rate is in line with the influenza death rate in China (around 1.6-2.6%). There are currently around 1.2 billion people in China; that there currently just over 6,000 cases is statistically irrelevant. People should be concerned, but as of right now there is an overreaction. That it is Spring Festival made the situation worse. Arguably this is why the Chinese government imposed a lockdown on Wuhan etc. There will be a lot more cases and deaths (just like any major flu outbreak), but right now the level of paranoia and fear is quite breathtaking.

Mortality rate is lower but incubation period is longer. Also there is a 2-3 contagion risk per person. Not to mention the hospitals being overloaded. Problem is the size is not known.

My personal view is the case load will spike much more. The estimates are significantly above what the current reported cases sre

MikeMike 29 January 2020 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10329733)
Mortality rate is lower but incubation period is longer. Also there is a 2-3 contagion risk per person. Not to mention the hospitals being overloaded. Problem is the size is not known.

My personal view is the case load will spike much more. The estimates are significantly above what the current reported cases sre

The contagion rate is still open to debate. People are just trying to make educated guesses at this point. Hospitals are being overloaded in certain cities (I would not want to be in Wuhan). For most large cities it is business as usual in hospitals. The number of infections will spike a lot more, but if the death rate is in line with the normal flu (so far that seems to be the situation; may well change). If this remains the same it will end up being like a bad flu outbreak, but with less infections and deaths due to the measures being taken by the Chinese government.

3 Putt 29 January 2020 11:44 PM

I live 700 km from Wuhan. My company is making me leave until things stabilize. So I will return to the US until China stabilizes. I can tell you, my city of 10 million people seems deserted. Not a single person outside walking. The subway is operating only 20% of the time and busses are just about empty. Anybody that has been to China knows this never happens.

Shanghai airport was empty yesterday when I returned to China from Singapore. Very few cars on the road and road blocks set up along highways to take passenger temperatures. The place is now intimidating and I don't scare easy.

Those of you trying to compare mortality rates with auto accidents or the flu are missing the point. Of the 7,000 cases reported (and probably double or triple that in actuality as the Chinese government is not always honest), only about 150 people have been cured. Cured meaning they have beaten the virus. The rest are still suffering through the painful symptoms. While this will not likely be as bad as SARS, it will affect a lot more people than those in China.

Zakalwe 29 January 2020 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trailboss516 (Post 10329731)
+1 to MikeMike

Google tells me there are 3,287 automobile deaths per year in the world. Why aren't we freaking out about that? Right because we are used to it. No longer news.

News is sensational, we all love a good story. Fear and anxiety sell newspaper and people click articles.

Concern, yes, but let's keep things in perspective.

I know that it was just a typo on your part, but for the benefit of anybody reading, that’s 3287 car accident deaths per day or > 1 million per year. 12000 Americans die annually falling down the stairs but most people remain unafflicted by bathmophobia.

I absolutely accept the seriousness of the situation and the potential for it to become a big problem, however the current reporting of it in countries like the U.K. and USA is entirely disproportionate and designed purely to instil fear in the public for the purpose of driving sales/views/clicks, as pointed out above. The same phenomenon resulted in unwarranted hysteria about (admittedly far less easily transmitted) Ebola.

pickettt 30 January 2020 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10329873)
I know that it was just a typo on your part, but for the benefit of anybody reading, thatís 3287 car accident deaths per day or > 1 million per year. 12000 Americans die annually falling down the stairs but most people remain unafflicted by bathmophobia.

I absolutely accept the seriousness of the situation and the potential for it to become a big problem, however the current reporting of it in countries like the U.K. and USA is entirely disproportionate and designed purely to instil fear in the public for the purpose of driving sales/views/clicks, as pointed out above. The same phenomenon resulted in unwarranted hysteria about (admittedly far less easily transmitted) Ebola.

I agree 100%. Not about the stats (I donít disagree, I just havenít researched it myself), but rather about the hysteria.

MikeMike 30 January 2020 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3 Putt (Post 10329848)
I live 700 km from Wuhan. My company is making me leave until things stabilize. So I will return to the US until China stabilizes. I can tell you, my city of 10 million people seems deserted. Not a single person outside walking. The subway is operating only 20% of the time and busses are just about empty. Anybody that has been to China knows this never happens.

Shanghai airport was empty yesterday when I returned to China from Singapore. Very few cars on the road and road blocks set up along highways to take passenger temperatures. The place is now intimidating and I don't scare easy.

Those of you trying to compare mortality rates with auto accidents or the flu are missing the point. Of the 7,000 cases reported (and probably double or triple that in actuality as the Chinese government is not always honest), only about 150 people have been cured. Cured meaning they have beaten the virus. The rest are still suffering through the painful symptoms. While this will not likely be as bad as SARS, it will affect a lot more people than those in China.

I live in China. Have lived here for over a decade. Luckily not close to Wuhan. You can compare mortality rates because the Coronavirus is a flu virus. The streets are relatively empty, part of that is because it is Spring Festival. And there is fear and paranoia amongst all. No one wants to get sick. As for the supposedly lack of people being cured, the normal flu takes at least a week to recover from and undoubtedly hospitals are being extra-cautious. Things could get a lot worse (virus could mutate, much greater mortality rate), but right now there is a clear overreaction even if the Chinese government are lying about the figures (although I don’t believe they are).

Oh, not that it matters but I have been on plenty of empty buses and there are people walking outside in this city of over 10 million.

Arcticsub 30 January 2020 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trailboss516 (Post 10329731)
+1 to MikeMike

Google tells me there are 3,287 automobile deaths per year in the world. Why aren't we freaking out about that? Right because we are used to it. No longer news.

News is sensational, we all love a good story. Fear and anxiety sell newspaper and people click articles.

Concern, yes, but let's keep things in perspective.

Eh what? In the world? LOL. Not even close. You mean per day.

GB-man 30 January 2020 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcticsub (Post 10330003)
Eh what? In the world? LOL. Not even close. You mean per day.

That would be a great accomplishment if we can get it to that number

Hollie_Rollie 30 January 2020 01:01 AM

I guess the most concerning part of this whole situation is no one really knows how bad the current situation is. Chinese government controls all the information flow and they have historically been...deceiving. So far we do know they quarantined 50 million people, something thatís completely unprecedented. That in itself is alarming. Also, if the incubation period is 2 weeks and millions fled wuhan prior to the lockdown...oh boy

Cryten 30 January 2020 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie (Post 10330028)
I guess the most concerning part of this whole situation is no one really knows how bad the current situation is. Chinese government controls all the information flow and they have historically been...deceiving. So far we do know they quarantined 50 million people, something thatís completely unprecedented. That in itself is alarming. Also, if the incubation period is 2 weeks and millions fled wuhan prior to the lockdown...oh boy

The initial Government response is always to cover it up and pretend it isn't hapening until it gets so bad thay can't hide it any more. We saw this with SARS.

Its likely far worse than is being admitted even now, and with such a long incubation period it has probably already spread further than is being reported (or actually known) too.

MikeMike 30 January 2020 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie (Post 10330028)
millions fled wuhan prior to the lockdown...oh boy

You mean millions left Wuhan and returned to their home cities prior to the start of Chinese New Year. In other words, a totally normal occurrence. Millions did not flee the city because of the virus.

Trailboss516 30 January 2020 02:29 AM

Sorry for my typo and appreciate the correction for those who correctly called it out!

Hollie_Rollie 30 January 2020 02:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeMike (Post 10330179)
You mean millions left Wuhan and returned to their home cities prior to the start of Chinese New Year. In other words, a totally normal occurrence. Millions did not flee the city because of the virus.



Correct.

Arcticsub 30 January 2020 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man (Post 10330019)
That would be a great accomplishment if we can get it to that number

My thoughts too. Wouldn't that be awesome. Who knows, maybe in 50 years.


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