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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

Moggo 6 April 2020 06:52 AM

Boris Johnson admitted to hospital due to COVID-19, precautionary at the moment apparently.


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andyxxx 6 April 2020 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10513338)
It is though worth bearing in mind that Sweden has a population more than 6 times lower than the U.K. with a land area thatís nearly double ours, giving a population density 12 times lower. Itís a lot harder to keep a lid on an infectious disease that spreads through close contact in small, densely populated countries and regions. I think their numbers are comparatively pretty bad and certainly donít suggest that their strategy is working.

You may be correct. Statistics are difficult to interpret sometimes. You make an interesting point about the size of the country but that could be irrelevant if the bulk of the population live in the towns/cities?

Their strategy may be working exactly how they intend - Get it over and done with, thinking they will have a similar amount of deaths either way Ė but with a less affected economy.

BNA/LION 6 April 2020 06:57 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
1 Attachment(s)
:thumbsup:

mountainjogger 6 April 2020 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10512910)
disagree. it would not change my opinion one bit. it would hurt terribly. but it would not change my opinion.

bad is not 5% of our population dying. to a certain degree 5% is likely very good for the world.

bad is 25% of the population dying.

bad is the entire wolds economy coming to a halt causing mass rioting, poverty, hunger and therefore more disease and death.

Several questions Seth, my friend.

First, when you say that 5% of the population of the world dying is not bad or that it would be good for the world, what do you mean? That it would be good to have these people die because we don't need them and it's no big deal, or that it would be a good outcome for a terrible viral pandemic that the world was not prepared for?

Second, when you say the economy coming to a "halt" are you saying that it has? Because obviously a lot of commerce is still at work. Or are you postulating a possible effect of the steps that have been taken if they are continued for a prolonged period? Or that if we wait to long to reopen it will grind to a halt?

Third, do you agree that except for a few hot spots where no one could do any work anyways with current conditions (like Northern Italy and NYC) the world economy is not come to a complete "halt." Yes, many businesses that depend on social contact are shuttered. And many other businesses have stopped work as non essential. But a good chunk of the economy continues. For example in my state, if you observe social distancing and a few other guidelines you are waived in as essential.

Last,

On 9/11 the US lost about 3,000 people. Was it a good idea to shut down all air travel, reopen with new restrictions and then spend several trillion dollars to combat the threat? Dollar for death, we spent a lot more money on 9/11 than we have so far. Not saying we won't wind up spending more by the time we are done. But we did spend a lot. How does that compare?

When Boeing lost a couple of aircraft with hundreds of souls, all of it's aircraft were grounded. And the economic loss is large. Was that a good idea? How does that compare?

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

antbkny 6 April 2020 07:01 AM

Since I’m in the middle of a Covid-19 hot spot, here’s a tip for some of my brothers where it hasn’t hit hard yet. Buy some hand sanitizer for when you’re out an about and can’t wash your hands. Lysol spray, Clorox wipes to sanitize door handles and other frequently touched surfaces. I sanitize anything i bring into the house, groceries included. Nitrile gloves and some sort of disposable face masks. If not any sort of cloth face mask will do (balaclava, motorcycle riding mask etc.) These items are almost impossible to find locally. An immune system booster such as airborne or emergen-c. And make sure you have a bottle of Tylenol, just in case you get a fever. They’re saying ibuprofen makes corona virus symptoms worse.

Zakalwe 6 April 2020 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyxxx (Post 10513408)
You may be correct. Statistics are difficult to interpret sometimes. You make an interesting point about the size of the country but that could be irrelevant if the bulk of the population live in the towns/cities?

Their strategy may be working exactly how they intend - Get it over and done with, thinking they will have a similar amount of deaths either way – but with a less affected economy.

Yeah fair enough I’m definitely not familiar with the micro-demography of the distribution of the Swedish population. I do though note, looking at the list of European countries whose numbers can be vaguely relied upon, that the worst performers in terms of mortality either have very large populations (Italy, Spain, France) or relatively high population densities (Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland).

superdog 6 April 2020 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10513429)
Several questions Seth, my friend.

First, when you say that 5% of the population of the world dying is not bad or that it would be good for the world, what do you mean? That it would be good to have these people die because we don't need them and it's no big deal, or that it would be a good outcome for a terrible viral pandemic that the world was not prepared for?

Second, when you say the economy coming to a "halt" are you saying that it has? Because obviously a lot of commerce is still at work. Or are you postulating a possible effect of the steps that have been taken if they are continued for a prolonged period? Or that if we wait to long to reopen it will grind to a halt?

Third, do you agree that except for a few hot spots where no one could do any work anyways with current conditions (like Northern Italy and NYC) the world economy is not come to a complete "halt." Yes, many businesses that depend on social contact are shuttered. And many other businesses have stopped work as non essential. But a good chunk of the economy continues. For example in my state, if you observe social distancing and a few other guidelines you are waived in as essential.

Last,

On 9/11 the US lost about 3,000 people. Was it a good idea to shut down all air travel, reopen with new restrictions and then spend several trillion dollars to combat the threat? Dollar for death, we spent a lot more money on 9/11 than we have so far. Not saying we won't wind up spending more by the time we are done. But we did spend a lot. How does that compare?

When Boeing lost a couple of aircraft with hundreds of souls, all of it's aircraft were grounded. And the economic loss is large. Was that a good idea? How does that compare?

Stay safe.:thumbsup:


Your post is confusing.

You say that you are asking question. But you are actually making your own judgements and statements based on what I said, disguised in questions.

Iím happy to give you my thoughts to your questions, but Iíd like to actually confirm with you first that you are genuinely asking questions that youíd like me to answer.

To be honest, I donít believe you are. But I might be wrong. I hope I am.

antbkny 6 April 2020 07:18 AM

If you gotta go out, gear up, i value my life and yours. Stay safe fellas! :cheers:
https://i.postimg.cc/RZCDqJLL/F6-E86...49-FD3-EBA.jpg

77T 6 April 2020 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by antbkny (Post 10513458)
If you gotta go out, gear up, i value my life and yours. Stay safe fellas! :cheers:

https://i.postimg.cc/RZCDqJLL/F6-E86...49-FD3-EBA.jpg



I hope you donít go anywhere near kids in that getup - theyíre worried enough as it is.




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77T 6 April 2020 07:26 AM

The Queen


https://youtu.be/x3fDQUNI-O8


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antbkny 6 April 2020 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 77T (Post 10513471)
I hope you donít go anywhere near kids in that getup - theyíre worried enough as it is.




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lol. Luckily most are leaving the kids home. And the bank tellers really get a kick out of it :chuckle:

mountainjogger 6 April 2020 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdog (Post 10513453)
Your post is confusing.

You say that you are asking question. But you are actually making your own judgements and statements based on what I said, disguised in questions.

I’m happy to give you my thoughts to your questions, but I’d like to actually confirm with you first that you are genuinely asking questions that you’d like me to answer.

To be honest, I don’t believe you are. But I might be wrong. I hope I am.

Seth. I think my prior posts speak for themselves. I am genuinely interested in your responses.

So, I will apologize in advance if the wording of my questions offended. But I would point out that your posts on this subject have also sometimes mixed in argument with questions or points. It is hard not to given the nature of the issues involved.

I would also point out that saying 5% death toll world wide would not be "bad" or might be "good", in my opinion begs for clarification, particularly when those words are used by someone whose post I usually find thoughtful and well written.

So, let me start over and ask my questions again. Albeit with more brevity and less argument.

1. What do you mean by 5% death of world population would not be bad. And what do you mean when you say it might be be "good."

2. By grinding to at halt is that what you are saying we have done or might be the possible effect of waiting to to reopen too long.

3. Do you agree that a good bit of commerce is continuing in the majority of places that are not hot spots?

4. How does what we are doing now, and the costs associated to date compare with what we spent responding to 9/11 and Boeing had to do to respond to their crashes, on a dollar for death comparison.

I think these are fair questions.

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

ronricks 6 April 2020 07:37 AM

Anyone comparing a planned terrorist attack and the results of such to results of a virus is pretty tone deaf. Make that extremely tone deaf.

77T 6 April 2020 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by antbkny (Post 10513479)
lol. Luckily most are leaving the kids home. And the bank tellers really get a kick out of it :chuckle:



I bet! :chuckle:


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superdog 6 April 2020 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ronricks (Post 10513505)
Anyone comparing a planned terrorist attack and the results of such to results of a virus is pretty tone deaf. Make that extremely tone deaf.

Iím struggling with that as well.

BNA/LION 6 April 2020 07:49 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
1 Attachment(s)
A few great resources for trustworthy information on the Coronavirus Outbreak.

Center for Disease Control and Prevention:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html

John Hopkins University | Coronavirus Resource Center:
http://covid19.healthdata.org/

brandrea 6 April 2020 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10513493)
Seth. I think my prior posts speak for themselves. I am genuinely interested in your responses.

So, I will apologize in advance if the wording of my questions offended. But I would point out that your posts on this subject have also sometimes mixed in argument with questions or points. It is hard not to given the nature of the issues involved.

I would also point out that saying 5% death toll world wide would not be "bad" or might be "good", in my opinion begs for clarification, particularly when those words are used by someone whose post I usually find thoughtful and well written.

So, let me start over and ask my questions again. Albeit with more brevity and less argument.

1. What do you mean by 5% death of world population would not be bad. And what do you mean when you say it might be be "good."

2. By grinding to at halt is that what you are saying we have done or might be the possible effect of waiting to to reopen too long.

3. Do you agree that a good bit of commerce is continuing in the majority of places that are not hot spots?

4. How does what we are doing now, and the costs associated to date compare with what we spent responding to 9/11 and Boeing had to do to respond to their crashes, on a dollar for death comparison.

I think these are fair questions.

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

Iím interested as well.

superdog 6 April 2020 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainjogger (Post 10513493)
Seth. I think my prior posts speak for themselves. I am genuinely interested in your responses.

So, I will apologize in advance if the wording of my questions offended. But I would point out that your posts on this subject have also sometimes mixed in argument with questions or points. It is hard not to given the nature of the issues involved.

I would also point out that saying 5% death toll world wide would not be "bad" or might be "good", in my opinion begs for clarification, particularly when those words are used by someone whose post I usually find thoughtful and well written.

So, let me start over and ask my questions again. Albeit with more brevity and less argument.

1. What do you mean by 5% death of world population would not be bad. And what do you mean when you say it might be be "good."

2. By grinding to at halt is that what you are saying we have done or might be the possible effect of waiting to to reopen too long.

3. Do you agree that a good bit of commerce is continuing in the majority of places that are not hot spots?

4. How does what we are doing now, and the costs associated to date compare with what we spent responding to 9/11 and Boeing had to do to respond to their crashes, on a dollar for death comparison.

I think these are fair questions.

Stay safe.:thumbsup:

For number 1. Please see here: https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=5367

2. Grinding to a halt. Yes. Companies are working remotely. Yet the amount of layoffs and furloughs in the last month are enormous in scope. And itís just starting. You are very literally talking semantics in your question. For all intents and purposes our economy has been dealt a death blow that will result in millions unable to pay rent and more. The trickle down effect of this will be enormous.

3. Yes. Some commerce is continuing. Yet the majority of the country is at home. Most are not earning. Most of any commerce continuing is essentials. Basic needs to keep people fed and clean. Not much else.

I canít speak for non hot spots because Iím in one. But every business contact I have is working from home.

4. I do not think this is a fair question. And I have too much respect for those that died and their families to go into detail in my response. I was sitting next to a woman that lost her husband and father to her children while it happened. I believe I understand why you asked. However, I simply donít think itís appropriate or even fair to compare a pandemic with a man made terrorist attack. I will heave it here and wonít comment further.

RHIII 6 April 2020 08:02 AM

Hereís my .02 into how absolutely trashy this entire forum has become. The threads go from this one - where people couch jockeying short-sighted comments and opinions about one of the most tragic situations our modern society has faced to date.

To other truly brainchild type threads led by Iím sure expert economist bashing the grey market - led hoping the end of the world and someoneís business is forced to Ďgiveí them a deal on a watch theyíll never get.

The true lack of compassion and moderation of this garbage - astounds me.


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TheVTCGuy 6 April 2020 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHIII (Post 10513583)
Hereís my .02 into how absolutely trashy this entire forum has become. The threads go from this one - where people couch jockeying short-sighted comments and opinions about one of the most tragic situations our modern society has faced to date.

To other truly brainchild type threads led by Iím sure expert economist bashing the grey market - led hoping the end of the world and someoneís business is forced to Ďgiveí them a deal on a watch theyíll never get.

The true lack of compassion and moderation of this garbage - astounds me.


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Excellent Post Roger. :thumbsup:


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