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-   -   the Coronavirus outbreak thread (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835)

BigBlue1 30 January 2020 02:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10328805)
John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

https://i.imgur.com/ylBrgpb.jpg

Interesting

Headshrinker 30 January 2020 03:36 AM

There was a breakout of the coronavirus in a facility in New Jersey before the well-publicized China epidemic. A viral outbreak at a Wanaque Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation sickened 10 children and sent an elderly patient to the hospital, was documented on December 18th of 2019.
I believe when people are isolated together, as in China, that precaution, may backfire.
Article is from NORTHJERSEY.COM, Jan.3,2020 by Lindy Washburn.
Sorry, it would not print.

Cryten 30 January 2020 10:05 AM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...007f8a6dbb.jpg

3 Putt 30 January 2020 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeMike (Post 10329951)
I live in China. Have lived here for over a decade. Luckily not close to Wuhan. You can compare mortality rates because the Coronavirus is a flu virus. The streets are relatively empty, part of that is because it is Spring Festival. And there is fear and paranoia amongst all. No one wants to get sick. As for the supposedly lack of people being cured, the normal flu takes at least a week to recover from and undoubtedly hospitals are being extra-cautious. Things could get a lot worse (virus could mutate, much greater mortality rate), but right now there is a clear overreaction even if the Chinese government are lying about the figures (although I donít believe they are).

Oh, not that it matters but I have been on plenty of empty buses and there are people walking outside in this city of over 10 million.



You indicated you are not close to WuHan. I suggest you get closer to Hubei province (or the area between it and Shanghai), before speaking with such authority. As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown. I know a few things about China too. Stay safe. I hope there is "clear overreaction" as you indicate.

Brenngun 30 January 2020 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeMike (Post 10329951)
I live in China. Have lived here for over a decade. Luckily not close to Wuhan. You can compare mortality rates because the Coronavirus is a flu virus. The streets are relatively empty, part of that is because it is Spring Festival. And there is fear and paranoia amongst all. No one wants to get sick. As for the supposedly lack of people being cured, the normal flu takes at least a week to recover from and undoubtedly hospitals are being extra-cautious. Things could get a lot worse (virus could mutate, much greater mortality rate), but right now there is a clear overreaction even if the Chinese government are lying about the figures (although I donít believe they are).

Oh, not that it matters but I have been on plenty of empty buses and there are people walking outside in this city of over 10 million.

No offence but I wouldn't bet my life on this statement. :smokin::smokin::smokin:

jwkunkle 30 January 2020 10:58 AM

I heard rumors that the actual infected number in China is closer to 90,000 right now. No way to substantiate and have no clue what the truth is. Something about a Chinese nurse that was speaking out.

77T 30 January 2020 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3 Putt (Post 10331344)
As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown.



Iím sorry to hear and know thatís worrisome. We are so new to this new strainís outbreak that even the epidemiology on those who recover is unknown.

Will it be like an acquired immunodeficient recovery where reinfection of others is a danger after recovering?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

77T 30 January 2020 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwkunkle (Post 10331488)
I heard rumors that the actual infected number in China is closer to 90,000 right now. No way to substantiate and have no clue what the truth is. Something about a Chinese nurse that was speaking out.



I donít say Chinese health officials are covering up anything.

It is very possible that the reported numbers are a fraction of the real cases. Even here in US with flu reports, the cases reported are perhaps 1/5th the real count. Often persons with influenza do not go to the doctor or are not tested or reported.

So it is possible the numbers are huge.
Prayers for the infected, and for the officials who must get this under control.


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Fat_ninja 30 January 2020 11:46 AM

The 90,000 number came from NYPost. No one really knows the potential cases.


But tonight official cases spiked to 7711 and 170 deaths


The WHO had an emergency briefing tomorrow at 1:30 pm. The dumbasses should make the right call tomorrow and call it a Global Emergency

Ichiran 30 January 2020 11:50 AM

I understand the Chinese Health authorities are able to streamline the testing process and they now have a test kit that allows the result to be known in 2 hours. That's why we are seeing a spike in infections over the past few days. I don't believe they have anything to hide at this point, but their focus is wholly on containment and building up the capacity of their hospitals.

Jeff - I wish your colleagues speedy recovery and beat this monster of a virus.

3 Putt 30 January 2020 12:13 PM

Thanks Michael....:cheers:

envuks 30 January 2020 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by envuks (Post 10329349)
1/27 ~12:00noon ET: ~2600 cases, 80 deaths.
1/28 ~4600 cases, 107 deaths
1/29 ~midnight ET: ~6000 cases, 132 deaths

1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

Fat_ninja 30 January 2020 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by envuks (Post 10331894)
1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

Yíall know thereís charts on those links right?

daOnlyBG 30 January 2020 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 (Post 10329099)
Am I the only one not worried??

I am not.

People call the spread of the coronavirus "exponential," and there's just so, so much wrong with that (simply because something is non-linear doesn't make it exponential).

Refer back to the SARS spread figure from earlier in the thread and compare the shape of that curve to this one.

Also, people fail to take into consideration the coronavirus' mortality rate and how it compares with... you know, the general flu.

Ichiran 30 January 2020 09:26 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Has anyone seen such long queues at your local hospital during peace times, with patients reporting symptoms of fever and breathing difficulties? Many more were turned away because the hospitals have no beds. Does this looks like general flu to you?

Attachment 1105846

Way too early to discuss mortality rate arising from this virus at this point in time.

Zakalwe 30 January 2020 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10332399)
Has anyone seen such long queues at your local hospital during peace times, with patients reporting symptoms of fever and breathing difficulties? Many more were turned away because the hospitals have no beds. Does this looks like general flu to you?

Attachment 1105846

Way too early to discuss mortality rate arising from this virus at this point in time.

The photo doesn’t prove anything about the virus, but it does prove the power of panic.

I strongly suspect many of the people in the picture don’t actually need to be there - regardless of the eventual mortality rate the majority of healthy individuals who contract this virus will suffer a mild, self-limiting respiratory infection.

I’m already seeing people - in the UK - presenting with simple colds but worried about coronavirus because they were on a plane with some Chinese people a month ago.

As a thought experiment, imagine if Trump were to wake up today and on a whim announce (erroneously) that coronavirus was spreading rapidly through NYC. Then imagine what ER waiting rooms in Manhattan would look like in the afternoon.

Ichiran 30 January 2020 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10332526)
The photo doesn’t prove anything about the virus, but it does prove the power of panic.

I strongly suspect many of the people in the picture don’t actually need to be there - regardless of the eventual mortality rate the majority of healthy individuals who contract this virus will suffer a mild, self-limiting respiratory infection.

I’m already seeing people - in the UK - presenting with simple colds but worried about coronavirus because they were on a plane with some Chinese people a month ago.

As a thought experiment, imagine if Trump were to wake up today and on a whim announce (erroneously) that coronavirus was spreading rapidly through NYC. Then imagine what ER waiting rooms in Manhattan would look like in the afternoon.

You reckon it's just mental? All in the mind?

Including all confirmed 180 deaths (increasing by 30 daily, still increasing) due to this virus over the past 5 days within a city? That's mild for you?

Zakalwe 30 January 2020 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10332627)
You reckon it's just mental? All in the mind?

To be clear, I don’t doubt the potential seriousness of this outbreak. Nobody actually knows yet. Personally I suspect the doomsday merchants are wrong, as they usually are but that’s just me. The comparison with ‘flu is made because both are potentially serious respiratory infections yet ‘flu, which kills hundreds of thousands annually - i.e. is confirmed to be deadly serious - provokes little fear in the media or amongst the public. Yet this coronavirus outbreak, whose severity is unknown (though the mortality rate quoted thus far is almost certainly a gross overestimate because the true number of infections is inevitably much higher than the confirmed number - many people who contract it will be invisible to statistics and wouldn’t even know they have it) is headline news in places where it shouldn’t be news at all.

My response to your post was to point out that ER attendances are not a reliable proxy for severity of illness. It is, for example, estimated that up to 50% of casualty attendances in the U.K. are unnecessary.

It stands to reason that if you tell your population that there is a deadly infection whose symptoms are cough, coryza and fever and it’s spreading rapidly, a lot of people who have minor illnesses will turn up unnecessarily to hospital. It is one of several reasons why the media response to this phenomenon is irresponsible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichiran (Post 10332627)

Including all confirmed 180 deaths (increasing by 30 daily, still increasing) due to this virus over the past 5 days within a city? That's mild for you?

I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

LandWatch 31 January 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10332655)
To be clear, I donít doubt the potential seriousness of this outbreak. Nobody actually knows yet. Personally I suspect the doomsday merchants are wrong, as they usually are but thatís just me. The comparison with Ďflu is made because both are potentially serious respiratory infections yet Ďflu, which kills hundreds of thousands annually - i.e. is confirmed to be deadly serious - provokes little fear in the media or amongst the public. Yet this coronavirus outbreak, whose severity is unknown (though the mortality rate quoted thus far is almost certainly a gross overestimate because the true number of infections is inevitably much higher than the confirmed number - many people who contract it will be invisible to statistics and wouldnít even know they have it) is headline news in places where it shouldnít be news at all.

My response to your post was to point out that ER attendances are not a reliable proxy for severity of illness. It is, for example estimated that up to 50% on casualty attendances in the U.K. are unnecessary.

It stands to reason that if you tell your population that there is a deadly infection whose symptoms are cough, coryza and fever spreading rapidly, a lot of people who have minor illnesses will turn up unnecessarily to hospital. It is one of several reasons why the media response to this phenomenon is irresponsible.



Iím happy to debate you in good faith but Iím out of here if youíre going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ĎFlu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. Iíve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.


Itís gratifying to read a balanced assessment. :cheers:

pickettt 31 January 2020 12:15 AM

No one seems to be interested in the worst measles outbreak in the past 30 years anymore.

Zakalwe 31 January 2020 04:11 AM

For those interested, a detailed analysis of the first 99 patients treated for the infection at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan has been published in the Lancet medical journal.

locutus49 31 January 2020 04:27 AM

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja (Post 10329073)
Itís accellerating


Bigblu10 31 January 2020 04:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locutus49 (Post 10333334)
I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Aren't you overreacting just a little bit? US residents are urged to carry on their daily life activities and not be concerned. There are only a handful of cases so far and the CDC is on top of it. There are no deaths in the US.

Fat_ninja 31 January 2020 04:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locutus49 (Post 10333334)
I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Oy vey gavalt

hashem wills it

Jim Smyth 31 January 2020 06:27 AM

Yowza.......................https://www.dailywire.com/news/thous...ign=benshapiro

singe89 31 January 2020 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locutus49 (Post 10333334)
I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

:rofl: every time I go back to Irvine I feel the same way and that happens to be where the reported case is.

MasonDixon 31 January 2020 06:50 AM

The CDC has confirmed the first person-to-person transmission in the United States. It's the husband of the patient in Chicago.

East Bay Rider 31 January 2020 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swils8610 (Post 10329120)
I’m not worried about it living in US. The scary thing is how fast it’s spreading and the amount of people that affected by it. The idea of how fast it’s spreading over several continents is insane. A virus like this could potentially wipe out millions of people world wide.


I agree. It's the incubation time that's offputting. Someone gets infected last week in China then touched something that someone else touches before boarding a plane. That person sneezed and infected more, one of whom may have visited your company on business a week ago or more. How would anyone know? It's a game of telephone, "pass the infection" style.
It is worrisome.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3 Putt (Post 10331344)
... As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown. I know a few things about China too. Stay safe. I hope there is "clear overreaction" as you indicate.


I'm very sorry to hear this. I hope they all get the medical attention they need and that they recover soon.

Rock 31 January 2020 09:22 PM

It is clear that health epidemics of this kind are a global phenomenon resulting from the level of international travel that has become the norm, and that viral epidemics will continue to be a common event in the future.
What concerns me most is that governments (certainly the Australian government) have apparently learned little form previous outbreaks.
Several weeks down the track health authorities are now thinking it would have been a good idea to have started tracking returning citizens from Day 1 rather than Day 21.
The Immigration and Customers Officers in our international airports have threatened strike action because nobody thought about whether they should be provided with protective gear.
Up until now, the Federal government has spent most of it's energy assuring citizens that there was no need to be alarmed. Their lack of a plan and any timely action has meant that now a lot of people are alarmed.
I am intrigued to learn that some people think there is no need to be concerned because a lot of people are killed annually by many other means. I wonder if they might be a bit more concerned if it was themselves or a close family member who was a 'statistic'.

Fat_ninja 31 January 2020 09:25 PM

The mortality rate is not being captured inappropriately. You need to adjust for the incubation period


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