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gnuyork 11 March 2020 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10446722)
And with that I think I end my participation in this thread. see ya. :thumbsup:

No offense, Brett, but this is like the 3rd time you have announced leaving this thread. If you can't take opposing opinions and/or facts, then that's your choice. I don't know who is right, but I sure don't have confidence that things are being handled properly at the top.

Laszlo 11 March 2020 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patton250 (Post 10446541)
I just now on live news heard the Health and Human Services Secretary day we have 2 million tests for those who need one. I guess he is lying?

I just think we are very ill prepared. We’ve test ~4500 while South Korea has already tested 150,000. It’s embarrassing as the most equipped nation on the planet could be so unprepared for a situation like this. Regardless of the numbers the system will just not be able to handle this. And because of our position this will cascade into other forms of disruption. You also mentioned you’re seeing two narratives and I pointed this out a while back. Personally the best form of information is those from positions like physicians on the front line and epidemiologists providing their insights. As well as organizations such as WHO who are fact based. I wouldn’t believe anything from the CCP but would definitely lean on Italy because that’s a real-time situation that can be a proxy. Another interesting thing to ponder is that there are 2 strains.

beshannon 11 March 2020 11:44 PM

Quote:

Take this seriously. Coronavirus is about to change your life for a while
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/polit...ife/index.html

beshannon 11 March 2020 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10446742)
I just think we are very ill prepared. Weíve test ~4500 while South Korea has already tested 150,000. Itís embarrassing as the most equipped nation on the planet could be so unprepared for a situation like this. Regardless of the numbers the system will just not be able to handle this. And because of our position this will cascade into other forms of disruption. You also mentioned youíre seeing two narratives and I pointed this out a while back. Personally the best form of information is those from positions like physicians on the front line and epidemiologists providing their insights. As well as organizations such as WHO who are fact based. I wouldnít believe anything from the CCP but would definitely lean on Italy because thatís a real-time situation that can be a proxy. Another interesting thing to ponder is that there are 2 strains.

The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Havenít Stopped

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/

Quote:

After surveying local data from across the country, we can only verify that 4,384 people have been tested for the coronavirus nationwide, as of Monday at 4 p.m. eastern time. These data are as comprehensive a compilation of official statistics as currently possible.

uscmatt99 11 March 2020 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fleetlord (Post 10446724)
More front line, experienced, accounts of the virus from Italy:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/italy...040542022.html

The other jibber jabber is just noise from ďexpertsĒ who have never even seen a single Coronavirus patient in person.

Yep we are bracing for an Italy-style wave of sick patients over here, it's only a matter of time. It's very frustrating as a provider having to work in the dark. Let alone the mass rescheduling of any visits or procedures/surgeries that aren't urgent or emergent.

Laszlo 12 March 2020 12:04 AM

From Dr. Fauci:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, issued a disturbing warning during a White House briefing Tuesday: Americans everywhere need to change the way they live their lives. Right now.

"We would like the country to realize that as a nation, we can't be doing the kinds of things we were doing a few months ago. It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case," Fauci said, referring Americans to the new federal Coronavirus.gov website for details on precautions to take at home, at work and out in the world.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"Everybody should say, 'All hands on deck,'" he added.

Laszlo 12 March 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon (Post 10446750)
The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Haven’t Stopped

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/

It’s pretty disappointing and it’s going to force actions from FEMA and National Guard because these basic measures were never in place.

Kowaco 12 March 2020 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greggsiam (Post 10446716)
The US is blowing it at every point of prevention and testing. It's an absolute joke.

My boss returned to the US from Thailand last week. Upon entering LAX there was ZERO testing of any passengers, especially from Asia (not that country of departure matters anyway). He had a slight fever and decided to go to the hospital to get checked out. All the hospitals he called or went to flat out refused to check him. The only option he was given was to call the CDC, which he remained on hold for 2 hours.

To put it into perspective. I live in Thailand and every passenger is tested for a fever and symptoms no matter country of origin. Even domestic flights are checked. Every single person. This is from a third world country run by an incompetent and corrupt junta.

At my work, I document every worker that leaves the country, and their return path. Any symptoms, they get a 2 week quarantine.

If you want a massive virus spread, just keep doing what the US is doing, which is nothing.



Every country has a different situation, Korea is a homogenous society so they do things differently. I worked over there a long time. The US will do fine and handle it well. Thereís still too much hype with corona right now and the panic is really the problem.


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uscmatt99 12 March 2020 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kowaco (Post 10446820)
Every country has a different situation, Korea is a homogenous society so they do things differently. I worked over there a long time. The US will do fine and handle it well. Thereís still too much hype with corona right now and the panic is really the problem.


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Unfortunately the US approach is the ostrich technique and not handling this well at all at the federal level. We don't even know the extent of what we are dealing with here. All policy seems to be based on numbers of currently diagnosed individuals, which we know is GROSSLY underestimating the true numbers of people walking around with this virus. States and municipalities are being left to figure it out on their own.

Laszlo 12 March 2020 12:39 AM

We’re doing awesome and contact tracing has been done so well that a coronavirus virus contact shook hands with our president, rode on Air-force One, and rode in the motorcade compromising our deepest national security protocols. We’ll be just fine. Don’t worry, it’s just hype. Italy is hype and media embellishments.

Laszlo 12 March 2020 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uscmatt99 (Post 10446843)
Unfortunately the US approach is the ostrich technique and not handling this well at all at the federal level. We don't even know the extent of what we are dealing with here. All policy seems to be based on numbers of currently diagnosed individuals, which we know is GROSSLY underestimating the true numbers of people walking around with this virus. States and municipalities are being left to figure it out on their own.

Yup. Ten more nursing homes in Washington State have cases. Can you imagine!? Those poor people. This is literally just the very, very beginning. We havenít even scratched the surface.

Duey 12 March 2020 12:47 AM

Here's a good one for you from the totally waked out state of California.

California's Sacramento County is calling off automatic 14-day quarantines that have been implemented for the coronavirus. "With the shift from containment to mitigation, it is no longer necessary for someone who has been in contact with someone with COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days," the county says.
Effective immediately, people in Sacramento County should not quarantine themselves if they've been exposed to the COVID-19. Instead, they should go into isolation only if they begin to show symptoms of the respiratory virus, the county's health department says.

Got to Love this beautiful state :cheers:

Kowaco 12 March 2020 12:48 AM

Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018Ė2019 influenza season

Interesting


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904VT 12 March 2020 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greggsiam (Post 10446704)
That's just not possible. It's misguided if you think banning X Y Z country is going to do anything. "Leaving the disease in the country where it started" is and was never going to happen no matter what actions are taken.

The virus is not even that bad to warrant such an extreme measure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by greggsiam (Post 10446716)
The US is blowing it at every point of prevention and testing. It's an absolute joke.

My boss returned to the US from Thailand last week. Upon entering LAX there was ZERO testing of any passengers, especially from Asia (not that country of departure matters anyway). He had a slight fever and decided to go to the hospital to get checked out. All the hospitals he called or went to flat out refused to check him. The only option he was given was to call the CDC, which he remained on hold for 2 hours.

To put it into perspective. I live in Thailand and every passenger is tested for a fever and symptoms no matter country of origin. Even domestic flights are checked. Every single person. This is from a third world country run by an incompetent and corrupt junta.

At my work, I document every worker that leaves the country, and their return path. Any symptoms, they get a 2 week quarantine.

If you want a massive virus spread, just keep doing what the US is doing, which is nothing.


1. Thailand was the first country outside China to report a case of COVID-19 and with a population of about 70 million is the size of approximately 1/5 the population of the US. Total cases of COVID-19 in Thailand are roughly 50. Sounds small until you consider that it is very hot and humid in Thailand relatively speaking. What's the weather today in Bangkok? The US has a much greater variety of weather climates. For example the Maritime climate of the Pacific NW to the dry SW.

2. It has been proven that UV light can kill the virus. It is also proven that heat and especially humidity causes virus particulates to become heavier and to more quickly fall to the ground. Thus causing SARS-COV-2 to be suspended in air far shorter as an aerosol based virus that it is.

3. The rate of international travel and trade is much greater in the US than in Thailand.

4. The US has the greatest number of international exchange students at University than any other country. Think super spreaders with no symptoms. We have over a million exchange students in the US btw and they pay the same tuition rates as out of state students. What's wrong with that picture, well many of those institutions are taking Federal funding meaning that all US taxpayers are contributing to this supplemental funding and reduction in tuition for exchange students.

5. So which is it that it isn't bad enough to warrant travel restrictions or it is bad enough? Because as I outlined above these aren't remotely similar situations in US and Thailand and without stopping exchange students from outside the US there really is no way to contain.

And as far as being not being that bad are you familiar with both strain types L and S of SARS-COV-2 and ability to test for both strains and mutations? Also, many false negatives in tests for younger adults. If we are going to be strict then your quarantine you are conducting as well needs to be greater than 14 days. Minimum 21 days, and to be very safe 40 days. I find it highly suspect that your work colleague lives in the US but wouldn't know that they could report this to their local health department. And Los Angeles of all places, they were some of the first in the US to put in measures and reporting. Was your colleague screened on his way out of Thailand before boarding the flight? If we want to be comprehensive he should've been.

We do much better working together on solutions instead of finger pointing imo. I agree though EVERYONE needs to be doing a better job :cheers:

Laszlo 12 March 2020 01:05 AM

Very useful data but it is hindsight data. If perhaps coronavirus modeling is correct, if 40- to-70% over the next 12- to 18-months worldwide become infected, and we use WHO’s global deathrate of 3.4%, where exactly does that put the numbers in comparison to the seasonal flu? Then segment out the other layer of 25% hospitalizations, where does that put the support system? When coronavirus has hindsight data, only then can we compare it to the seasonal flu. Does anyone here want to do the math? Then reduce it by 50%?

beshannon 12 March 2020 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10446800)
Itís pretty disappointing and itís going to force actions from FEMA and National Guard because these basic measures were never in place.

Agreed

Moggo 12 March 2020 01:54 AM

Itís getting out of control pretty quick. Too many thinking they are bullet proof unfortunately.

Weíve been too slow to react in the UK also, I fear itís probably running riot here and the number will go up fast. Even our Health Minster has it and is in self isolation.

We have a huge rugby game going ahead in my city on Saturday, probably 125,000 people coming to the city, recipe for disaster but money talks.


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seslwr 12 March 2020 02:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10446929)
Very useful data but it is hindsight data. If perhaps coronavirus modeling is correct, if 40- to-70% over the next 12- to 18-months worldwide become infected, and we use WHOís global deathrate of 3.4%, where exactly does that put the numbers in comparison to the seasonal flu? Then segment out the other layer of 25% hospitalizations, where does that put the support system? When coronavirus has hindsight data, only then can we compare it to the seasonal flu. Does anyone here want to do the math? Then reduce it by 50%?

Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

gmh1013 12 March 2020 02:05 AM

28:06:42:12

Zakalwe 12 March 2020 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seslwr (Post 10447059)
Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

So basically he's predicting Armageddon? Since - and I'm taking a figure from Paul 77T earlier upthread as Gospel - you only have 700k hospital beds in the entire country, it won't actually be possible to admit even a small fraction of that number of people to hospital.

904VT 12 March 2020 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10447076)
So basically he's predicting Armageddon? Since - and I'm taking a figure from Paul 77T earlier upthread as Gospel - you only have 700k hospital beds in the entire country, it won't actually be possible to admit even a small fraction of that number of people to hospital.

I think this is the issue that Italy is dealing with now. And hopefully medical workers stay healthy, so that staffing stays full. The cumulative effect of care of COVID-19 may pressure the rest of the system, causing less care for everyday flu, cold, injuries. SARS-COV-2 from my understanding even pneumonia may be represented as a mild symptom. Severe cases require ventilators. So "mild' cases have the potential to be nothing like what would be deemed a mild cold or even flu.

superdog 12 March 2020 02:21 AM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...190303174.html

I very much realize I am likely one of the only hold outs here. But I still think this is being over blown.

Based on the way this spreads, likely 5x (ore more) people actually have it than has been reported.

And they don't even know it.

mannyv11 12 March 2020 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gmh1013 (Post 10447061)
28:06:42:12

lol I wouldn't go that far =)

mannyv11 12 March 2020 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kowaco (Post 10446890)
Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018Ė2019 influenza season

Interesting


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I really think people need to stop trying to compare it to the flu, we get it the flu numbers are what they are, but it isn't related to Covid-19

Spartacus 12 March 2020 02:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laszlo (Post 10446798)
From Dr. Fauci:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, issued a disturbing warning during a White House briefing Tuesday: Americans everywhere need to change the way they live their lives. Right now.

"We would like the country to realize that as a nation, we can't be doing the kinds of things we were doing a few months ago. It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case," Fauci said, referring Americans to the new federal Coronavirus.gov website for details on precautions to take at home, at work and out in the world.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"Everybody should say, 'All hands on deck,'" he added.

Dr. Fauci has lost all credibility from my perspective.

He should be fired immediately. He had an obligation to send this message earlier, he and the task force decided to play politics and try to convince everyone ďno change to your lifeĒ...now, faced with facts, they are moving the message.

This whole situation screams of hubris.

superdog 12 March 2020 02:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gmh1013 (Post 10447061)
28:06:42:12

oh no....

I take it all back.

we are not exaggerating this. :rofl:

joeychitwood 12 March 2020 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seslwr (Post 10447059)
Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

i went to the U of M medical school. Osterholm is a truth teller, whether itís a popular opinion or not. He and Fauci in my mind are the two most reliable sources in the US.

77T 12 March 2020 02:31 AM

the Coronavirus outbreak thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakalwe (Post 10447076)
So basically he's predicting Armageddon? Since - and I'm taking a figure from Paul 77T earlier upthread as Gospel - you only have 700k hospital beds in the entire country, it won't actually be possible to admit even a small fraction of that number of people to hospital.



Iím not that good to write a Gospel, :chuckle: - but my stats are from the AHA 2020 report.

So thatís as factual as the American Hospital Assn. is in their reporting.

Check out aha.org

The predictions of dire healthcare impacts are based on many assumptions, variables and unknowns. One thing for sure is that large numbers can fool the reader.

If we have an outbreak in an understaffed area, they will be overwhelmed. To that group, the big numbers are fairly useless.

I should also say that the AHA number I cited in my earlier question didnít include military and other state-owned facilities. The public wouldnít go there unless we have a National State of Emergency methinks.

So if we take every bed from every type of hospital, then we have 931,203 beds. Again a large number and every bed isnít available to every citizen.

For comparison, over 36+ million admissions are handled annually. That includes elective procedures that might be postponed in an emergency situation.



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Moggo 12 March 2020 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeychitwood (Post 10447140)
i went to the U of M medical school. Osterholm is a truth teller, whether itís a popular opinion or not. He and Fauci in my mind are the two most reliable sources in the US.



Why so much greater numbers than China though?


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Moggo 12 March 2020 02:38 AM

I see WHO have just declared it a pandemic.


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