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Watch at more than US$20,000 is not something you consider a mere disposable item that you buy because you love it; you have to make sure it has value retention and easy to get out when you need the money. You do not buy a watch that is US$20,000; or more - you invest in a watch. You can buy a decent apartment in many small cities in USA at US$50,000 with down payment just $10,000 and get positive income streams.
Watch is a risky investment that do not generate positive income stream; infact if you measure the service cost and storage cost it can be negative income stream.
If an investment could generate income stream such as bonds; triple AAA rating stocks or rental residential or commercial real estate - when economy is bad you can hold on and get positive returns and wait for better timing to off load at profit; and it is very unlikely positive income stream investment to become unsellable due to change in taste or fashion or brand name problem. Watch if you could not sell today, and you keep it - who knows what happen to the brand after the crisis pass by; a newer brand come in take over and what you are holding is just like "expired" time pieces. It happens to Piaget, Frank Muller, Blancpain; Raymond Weil, Cartier, Panerai, Omega, Breitling - they were very hot brands in the 1980s and 1990s some model even better than Patek Phillipe then; but look at where they are standing now; they are toxic asset.
"The price is being driven by speculators not watch lovers and when the tide turns there will be a rush to dump stock." yes to dump stock you need a place to dump;
Patek and Richard Mille being very expensive; beyond reach for average middle class and is not very liquid when there is market turbulence.
The sport watch hype that has been going on in the 2000s are mainly generated by Chinese buyers and Hong Kong grey dealers. They just buy in bulk at whatever price and keeping market dry and then sell slowly at huge premiums. Now Chinese businessman can not even enter Hong Kong, due to corona virus and who knows how long it would take; as the spreading of virus exceed the medical team capacity to cure.
I wouldn't be surprised that price will be heading down by 60 or 70% even with Patek or Richard Mille come to complete stop of watch production.
Rolex may be exception as it is very liquid (when you want to sell) globally; there is a steady demand world wide and Rolex price (Milgauss, Air King, Explorer, Date Just) is relatively within reach for an average middle class. You can go to the deepest jungle in Asia and you show Rolex and they can understand and find you a way. You ask an average Joe in New York, they have no idea what a Patek or Richard Mille means.
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