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AAP8 · 27 July 2020, 02:03 AM

I think the market will soften - just like it did back in 2008 - but its not dropping back to retail - there are a lot of smart people who have the capital to buy these watches at a premium - but now in 2020 there are good opportunities elsewhere on how to deploy $65K or more to get a better return - so I can see a lot of those people not buying the watch and investing it elsewhere and waiting on the watches. That will soften demand a little in my mind.

My father was about to pull the trigger on a 5990 recently - and decided it was better to invest in growing his business because there was an opportunity to buy the building that we were renting space in - so he used the 5990 cash to just put the down payment on the building as these types of scenarios are going to happen a lot as people who have over leveraged their money are hit with the reality of what COVID will really mean to the economy in the US. I personally see a lot of good real estate deals coming in the fall when people who have over leveraged their buildings start to have too many people stop paying rent and they can't cover their costs.

In summary - will the Nautilus crash - no - but will the market soften - I think so as smart money moves its cash into long term investments - I see a new watch bubble starting in 24 months when those people reenter the watch market.

27 July 2020, 02:03 AM	#39
AAP8 "TRF" Member Join Date: Dec 2010 Real Name: AP Location: Cleveland, OH Watch: SubC LN Posts: 428	I think the market will soften - just like it did back in 2008 - but its not dropping back to retail - there are a lot of smart people who have the capital to buy these watches at a premium - but now in 2020 there are good opportunities elsewhere on how to deploy $65K or more to get a better return - so I can see a lot of those people not buying the watch and investing it elsewhere and waiting on the watches. That will soften demand a little in my mind. My father was about to pull the trigger on a 5990 recently - and decided it was better to invest in growing his business because there was an opportunity to buy the building that we were renting space in - so he used the 5990 cash to just put the down payment on the building as these types of scenarios are going to happen a lot as people who have over leveraged their money are hit with the reality of what COVID will really mean to the economy in the US. I personally see a lot of good real estate deals coming in the fall when people who have over leveraged their buildings start to have too many people stop paying rent and they can't cover their costs. In summary - will the Nautilus crash - no - but will the market soften - I think so as smart money moves its cash into long term investments - I see a new watch bubble starting in 24 months when those people reenter the watch market.