Quote:
Originally Posted by Russell996
I personally think your numbers are low, but even if they were double, the numbers are still small given the current demand. I believe the ongoing issue for the market price of the 5711/2/26 etc will be around the demographic paying or thinking of paying these highly inflated prices, I simply don't believe the majority of pieces selling at these exorbitant prices (if they are selling) are being bought to wear, they are being bought as investments and as such will instantly be sold once the lack of potential growth becomes obvious. Watches are not investments, contrary to most messages in this thread I would urge anyone who bought their 5711 as a store of money at an inflated price and doesn't wear it to sell now and avoid the obvious market correction that will come. The Nautilus is King, agreed, but it is currently not priced sensibly on the secondary market and at some point this will change.
The watch market is probably going through the biggest change in it's history with the ability to buy and sell at a whim, much the same as with cars, virtually every other person is a watch dealer and some of the larger players are doing a great job of bringing more people into this amazing hobby of ours. There is now a ground swell of interest in watches and the amazing products that are available from many manufacturers, personally I see a great future for inventive independents and main stream players. The more buyers are educated in the watch market the more their interests and buying choices will diversify, that is all to the good but will hit the hyped and overinflated models, which to be honest is good for everyone, Patek included.
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I live on a small island with 10 ADs near me and all but 1 store told me they receive only 1 to 2 blue 5711 each year. That last store receives 2 to 3. That's how I derive the "1.5" in my back-of-envelope calculation. Is this number consistent with what your/other AD(s) told you?
I agree with you on the financial prudence message and watches are not meant as an investment. That said, what do you reckon is a sensible price for a discontinued blue 5711?
I checked the pricing of the obvious competitors like the 15202 and Odysseus and they are priced at 70k and 85k respectively. The 15202 reference has been around since 2000 and the Odysseus was only released in 2020; both are not discontinued. Historically the blue 5711 has always traded higher than the 15202, and the Odysseus does not have a history/legacy like the Nautilus. The US dealers are currently pricing the discontinued blue 5711 at 100k, which I felt is not far off from the current prices of 15202, Odysseus and the discontinued white 5711. I personally think the blue is priced fairly and given its popularity, will rise further in the future.
Or do you meant the SS sport watch market as a whole is inflated? I do see that in Rolex but not for the likes of Omega, et al., except for certain models. I was expecting to see a correction for the SS watch market in early 2020 due to the pandemic but these watch prices seem to head in the opposite direction today.