Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum - View Single Post - A note of caution on the current Rolex market

PhilK · 14 December 2021, 05:54 PM

Our local AD has been busy weeding out the speculators/investors from their 116500 queue for a few years now and they still have c. 400 people listed on their books for one. The challenge remains that of supply vs demand. I have never known a situation where the shelves are completely bare of stainless steel sports watches. I am not convinced this is the "mania" phase referred to in the original post. People simply cannot buy the watches they want. If supply was to suddenly quadruple then that might soak up part of the latent demand and take the heat out of some of the less desirable models but I cannot see that denting what is happening with Daytonas.

Having just checked on Chrono24, there are 250 of the more desirable white dial 116500 Daytonas for sale worldwide. 17 of these do not have papers so that reduces the pool to 233 where provenance is more comfortable. A further 20 turn out to be mis-listed and have black dials or substitute dials which takes the pool down to 213. 13 of these are being sold by private sellers which provides little comfort in terms of comeback if there's an issue. So, 200 watches in total for a demand that is likely to be in the thousands (if not the tens of thousands). That is before you consider the challenge of how many of these watches are actually available geographically close to where you live. Around 90 of these are 2021 models but even if that trend continues in years to come, that is not sufficient to satisfy demand.

As the end of the day, if you're wealthy enough to pay £10.5K for a new one, it's quite likely you're wealthy enough to pay £30K simply because it is something you want. People seem to think nothing of sinking £30K into a car which will be worth £12K in 3 years time. You're never going to have a situation where a secondary market Daytona is going to be worth less than list retail price so the downside is fairly limited. Most agree that the modern Daytona is a classic design. It is highly likely that the demand will never be met before the current model is discontinued which, in turn, will cause a further uplift in prices as all of those in the queue have to decide whether to buy the watch for their collections or give up altogether.

This is more than just an economic model.

14 December 2021, 05:54 PM	#46
PhilK "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2009 Location: London Posts: 192	Our local AD has been busy weeding out the speculators/investors from their 116500 queue for a few years now and they still have c. 400 people listed on their books for one. The challenge remains that of supply vs demand. I have never known a situation where the shelves are completely bare of stainless steel sports watches. I am not convinced this is the "mania" phase referred to in the original post. People simply cannot buy the watches they want. If supply was to suddenly quadruple then that might soak up part of the latent demand and take the heat out of some of the less desirable models but I cannot see that denting what is happening with Daytonas. Having just checked on Chrono24, there are 250 of the more desirable white dial 116500 Daytonas for sale worldwide. 17 of these do not have papers so that reduces the pool to 233 where provenance is more comfortable. A further 20 turn out to be mis-listed and have black dials or substitute dials which takes the pool down to 213. 13 of these are being sold by private sellers which provides little comfort in terms of comeback if there's an issue. So, 200 watches in total for a demand that is likely to be in the thousands (if not the tens of thousands). That is before you consider the challenge of how many of these watches are actually available geographically close to where you live. Around 90 of these are 2021 models but even if that trend continues in years to come, that is not sufficient to satisfy demand. As the end of the day, if you're wealthy enough to pay £10.5K for a new one, it's quite likely you're wealthy enough to pay £30K simply because it is something you want. People seem to think nothing of sinking £30K into a car which will be worth £12K in 3 years time. You're never going to have a situation where a secondary market Daytona is going to be worth less than list retail price so the downside is fairly limited. Most agree that the modern Daytona is a classic design. It is highly likely that the demand will never be met before the current model is discontinued which, in turn, will cause a further uplift in prices as all of those in the queue have to decide whether to buy the watch for their collections or give up altogether. This is more than just an economic model.