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The problem with the current events (post-covid, inflation, crypto values, China/HK shutdown, Ukraine/russia war, public debt, Central bank policies, Central bank balance sheets, etc) is that all ideas a plausible.
There is no trend. Market can crash and/or market rallies are possible.
Only things which are now facts: during the covid, all countries were fine (we could see it in the stable exchange rates). Post-covid, exchange rates are moving hard. Unrest in a lot of countries is increasing. IMF is now helping more and more new countries.
So as long as the central banks can control everything and the market trust these guys, we are fine. Otherwise everything could turn sour quickly.
That said: LVMH increased massively the prices of all its successful products to enjoy the ride (If you have a wife into bags, you know what I speak about). Rolex, PP, AP, etc could have doubled or more the price of its successful watches. They have not. Why? They know. I do not.
That said 2: For us the best indicator for the watch market is to check the evolution of the grey dealers' ratio of consigned/owned units in stock. If suddenly this ratio increases, it means that they do not trust the market.
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