Quote:
Originally Posted by justdate
I personally expect them to fall significantly more over the coming months and years.
The whole market was fuelled by a mad hype to own the latest fashion item, a luxury watch, and to make a quick buck by flipping watches.
Fashions and fads pass fast. I expect in a few years to see very few active members on here with ‘20-‘22 registered accounts.
Next, the profit of flipping is almost entirely gone on most models as the brands maximise their profit, and greys pay low for watches.
As such the demand fuelling everything will disappear, and the watches will start to be available at retail more and more readily. This will force grey dealers to drop their prices or else they just won’t sell.
Just my view on your Q.  |
I joined the forum last year, “post-hype”… got my “hype” Rolex in 2019, pre-hype. It was already trading at a 50%++ premium to msrp at that time (SS Daytona). For context had been interested in and buying watches for perhaps 15 years prior to getting my first Rolex.
When I saw prices rocket I knew it wouldn’t last. I don’t actively trade in/out of my collectibles so didn’t sell any watches. Same with other things I collect.
I also didn’t add anything that fell into a “hype” category. I didn’t entirely stop buying but added nothing people were speculating on.
That speculative sub-segment fell back and is (in my view) fully corrected today. There will be some further easing but would be surprised it anything dramatic. I imagine depleted savings for big swaths of the population here in the US will eventually become a real drag (hasn’t happened) but I think for Rolex that hit has already been felt, along some other aspirational luxury goods.
The tricky part is that any further macro erosion will support central bank aggression with rate reductions - restarting the cycle. So while we may not be at absolute bottom today it is likely we’re a) not far off and b) as likely to be in a boom cycle again in 24 months from now.