[saxo3]

Originally Posted by Dirt

I know where you are coming from. Don't get me wrong.
I actually agree with your analysis and if you go way back in this, you may well find that I was the very first on the forum to put that possibility forward.
I was the first to attribute dog status to the 32xx movement.
I was also the first to put forward that only a 33xx movement could provide some kind of salvation, and that was assuming The Mothership could get their house in order.
It's just that 25% is an incredibly high number for a failure rate to start with in any ones language, that if it were cars, electric kettles, microwaves or hammers that had the handles breaking off it would normally spell the end of the brand. With the reality being that Rolex is literally too big now to fail as far as the industry and general public are concerned.
Except that with just about every report in the media about shady people, crime syndicates or big international drug busts and the name Rolex always being mentioned along with very flash cars and illegal weapons, one may think Rolex invented Teflon and perfected protection rackets around the brand.
There certainly are willing influential conspirators that have more sway by their silence than a few faceless people shoved aside and into a cupboard within an obscure corner of the internet.
I think those of us who have had a good many Rolex watches with movements dating back a number of decades and have grown to admire and respect how reliable they can be would probably find any number north of 5% utterly incredulous for any consumer goods let alone 25% or potentially more.
Probably way more as you and i suggest, as EasyE is a prime example of an unimaginable worst case scenario that it's difficult to fully comprehend and I have communicated with another from the forum with equally disastrous experiences as EasyE.
It's not good either way
For me, communicating with a member who is potentially a bit on the fence, I had determined that 25% was a good number to put out there that would make an ordinary person truly take stock and motivate them to move in a direction which is in their best interests.

Ok, thanks for your detailed explanations.

Your mentioned 75% and 25% are just some unverified numbers used (by you) to highlight the overall situation for this 32xx caliber series because one can consider that 25% failure rate is already extremely high. I get your point.

If we want to be consistent with the present poll result in this thread, the "source" of your numbers, one can probably say that, based on a TRF poll statistic with 1433 votes collected between January 2021 and April 2024, at least 30 % of 32xx movements have developed the low amplitude issue during the 5-year warranty period.

Back to probabilities to buy several watches which develop the well known issues: with an assumed 32xx caliber failure rate of 30% the probability that I bought my 3 different 32xx watches, which in fact all developed the low amplitude issue, was 2.7 %. So EasyE was extremely unlucky for his 6 (out of 8) 32xx watches? The probability for him was 0.07%.