[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by dtwer

When it comes to civilizations outside of planet Earth I believe we are dealing with the probability rather than the possibility of finding them. There is little doubt life exists outside of Earth. The Drake equation as theorized by astrophysicist Frank Drake estimates what happens to life on Earth has likely happened 10 billion times in the entire universe over the cosmic history.

So it's not really a question of if, but when and where. But herein lies the biggest problem: the probability of us coming into contact with an alien civilization is in itself quite small.

Time is a factor. As our universe is estimated to be 13 billion years old, it is conceivable that vast majority of those alien civilizations may either have come and gone before our time or haven't been born yet. For the ones that exist now, many of them may be in the state of either single cell organism or dying from self-inflicted destruction.

Space is another factor. The closest galaxy to us, Canis Major Dwarf Galaxy, is at a stunning distance of 25,000 light years away from us. Even the closest Earth-like planet, Kepler-186f, is located 490 light years away from us. For any alien civilization to overcome the distance to reach us, they would have to have invented some extreme method of travel that defies physics.

I think my head just exploded.