Quote:
Originally Posted by Laszlo
Is there any validity in recent reports about 2 mutations, one being worse than the other? I think Italy first identified that their strain is different. An ‘S’ strain and an ‘L’ strain? It didn’t seem too positive.
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I can’t speak to the report you saw, but there will be mutations. The chance it worsens is possible.
But over 95 years of viral epidemiology since the Spanish Flu has shown viruses weaken. And it happened before today’s vaccines were created.
Let’s take H1N1 as an example...
There have been numerous adaptations within the H1N1 genome. Most of the genetic changes were documented as non-adaptive, in other words did not adapt to overcome the antibodies infected people generated naturally. Much of the change appeared to actually be degenerative, that is, weakened compared to its preceding genome.
H1N1 has been undergoing natural genetic attenuation, and some of that attenuation occurred during a single pandemic. This process plays a role in pandemic cessation even when vaccines are less than ideal or not available in some populations.
Overall this contributes to an exponential decline in mortality rates over time. This has been historically seen in all major human influenza strains in the past.
I can’t predict the trajectory here with this one, but the more healthy people who get it, then overcome it - and the resulting mutant strain is passed along - then the virus will very likely be generationally weakened.
This is just my opinion from reading many studies of the past - I am not an epidemiologist.
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