Quote:
Originally Posted by Token74
I’d like to see the same visual but with the number of cases requiring healthcare services overlaid. If only 10% of cases require healthcare services/treatment, then surely Red is better? If 90% of cases require healthcare services/treatment then clearly Blue is better.
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The issue with that graph is that the Y-axis isn’t to scale, it’s just illustrative.
The government’s worst-case projections give an upper bound of 70% of the population eventually becoming infected, which is just shy of 50 million people. If
only 1% of those require hospitalisation, that’s 500,000 in a country that currently has about 100,000 NHS hospital beds that perennially operates at 100% capacity. All that happening in three months would decimate not only a large number of COVID victims but also a large number of poor sods who had the bad luck to get ill with a completely unrelated problem at the wrong time.
Then bear in mind that some estimates put the hospitalisation rate at 10% rather than 1% (I believe this is an overestimate but I could easily be wrong) and you see the scale of the potential problem.