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Old 5 April 2020, 02:04 PM   #5225
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Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 View Post
At high risk people need to shelter in, everyone else needs to go back to normal activity. Sheltering in is just prolonging this and spreading it out further in time. The majority of the population who test positive will not be going/needing to stay in the hospital. Whether you do what we're doing now, or go back to normal operation the same amount of people needing hospital beds is gong to be the same. Just my opinion, but then again I'm an idiot...

Youíre half right and half wrong, which in life/death situations makes it 100% wrong. Yes whether we spike the curve straight up by getting everyone sick all at once, or bend the curve by spreading it out, the SAME number of people will get sick. The number of people below the curve remains the same regardless of the shape. But the problem with spiking the curve is those people that do end up needing an ICU bed or ventilator, will not get one because we will have run out. Thatís the problem. But if people could space out when they get sick, those that require ICUs will get them. Make sense???

The other advantage of stretching this out slowly is we may get a vaccine in time to actually REDUCE the numbers below the curve.

These are the two primary reasons for physical and social distancing.

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