Quote:
Originally Posted by rollyp
Assigning percentage probabilities to these things is an exercise in futility as they cannot be quantified. KetaPatek is spot on in his assessment of the macro economic picture and a good part of this run up in watch prices is due to low interest rates and money printing. Nautilus asking prices have already come down from just a few months ago. Don't believe me? Follow prices on chrono24. The only way prices go up from here is if it gets discontinued.
Another interesting data point is there are now 10 5070Ps listed, when there used to be around 3-5 at any given time. Could be the stock market tanking is spooking some people into dumping their high dollar collectibles. As someone who owns both of these models, it's fun to watch them rise in value but the reality is that they can't continue this rate of appreciation and have probably reached a plateau for some time and in the case of the 5711, will come down, especially as the stock market continues to decline -- which it will.
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Everything is quantifiable, and there's nothing in katapatek's analysis which can't be read in a newspaper. But the sad fact remains that nobody can really tell exactly what will happen, and more importantly when it will happen. Meanwhile, there is a big disconnect between the rising Nautilus asking prices and the falling markets.