Quote:
Originally Posted by francoamerican
Due to the relatively quick recovery of asset prices from 2009 lows, it appears to me that many people believe that quick recovery is inevitable. It would need to be bad for many years before people would start dumping 5711 - to cause people to believe that “this time it’s really different” . It would also be interesting know how many owners are passionate about watches or just want to own the “it” watches - highly passionate owners will sell other things first since a 5711 is irreplaceable in many ways.
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I agree that time will reveal who are the real watch collectors and who have entered the market because of the hype and FOMO and possibly to make a quick buck on a flip.
True collectors will keep their collection if they are in it for the love of these watches, unless their personal finances tank quickly.
However if the economy stays down for a while, eventually resellers will need to sell before they lose more money on their existing inventory. Also you have to remember, during the Great Recession of the late 2000s, many ADs went under. It depends on how much reserve they have. How long can they withstand the depressed market for "luxury goods"? Perhaps China will recover more quickly and start buying up everything. Germany is aware of this possibility and trying to pass a law preventing majority foreign ownership of many of their large corporations.