This type of question needs to be timebound to some degree, as the current assumptions and trends will no doubt change beyond five to ten years in ways we can’t comprehend, and a market-fracturing event is also likely. So, assuming a max 10-year horizon, I see three scenarios, each as likely as the next:
1) The stock/housing market takes a massive hit and we have an implosion like we did in 2008. We’ll see a massive increase in supply as “collectors” are forced to sell off their pieces to make ends meet. Luxury goods are always the first to go, for obvious reasons. Chances are this wouldn’t happen until at least five years out, which means Rolex MSRP prices will have gone up. History has shown us that the popular models rarely dip below the current MSRP. The average selling price might revert back to $8-10k, but the Catch 22 is that the average Joe won’t have the expendable cash to buy the piece at the “discounted” rate when they’re struggling to put food on the table.
2) To combat grey market pricing and counterfeits, Rolex decides to massively increase prices on stainless steel models and implements a program to confirm authenticity (similar to Vacheron‘s new Block Chain serial number system). MSRP on a new BLNR is now $18k. Demand drops and the 116710BLNR stabilizes in the $10-12k range, as perfect fakes are available and authenticity verification becomes nearly impossible for non-Block chain models.
3) Rolex makes a huge misstep and irreparably devalues their brand image. Owning a Rolex is seen as having poor taste and the market is in turn flooded. Prices plummet but demand dries up as buyers flock to whatever the replacement is.
In the end, I’m just glad I got my Batman a couple years ago for MSRP. :)
