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Old 17 March 2020, 07:28 AM   #2252
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: New Zealand
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Posts: 2,630
Originally Posted by daveathall View Post
A document has just been released and being reported on Sky News that a good case estimate of the deaths from the virus in the UK is 250,000.

I'm in shock.
I am too, not just about this, but the fact that UK authorities seem to want a larger number of people to become infected in order to develop "herd immunity".

Essentially letting the virus run it's course.

"To avoid a second peak in the winter, Vallance said the U.K. would suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” while focusing on protecting vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. In the meantime, other people would get sick. But since the virus causes milder illness in younger age groups, most would recover and subsequently be immune to the virus. This “herd immunity” would reduce transmission in the event of a winter resurgence. On Sky News, Vallance said that “probably about 60 percent” of people would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity."

It seems like the UK plan is not to try to avoid infections but to ensure as many people as possible are infected to achieve this so called "herd immunity". I think the inevitable deaths are a high price to pay for this.

The UK population is around 66 million. If as Vallance says about 60 percent become infected, as needed to achieve herd immunity it means that 36 million become infected. A very conservative estimate is a 1% death rate so you would expect 360000 deaths by following this "herd immunity" plan. In that case 250 thousand seems on the low side.
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