I certainly applaud HK’s success and your perspective as one who has traversed both HK & US for a while before the coronavirus appeared.
If you don’t mind, let’s extrapolate the wise initial HK moves vs. US (before Sunday March 15th) in terms of the long view.
How long can HK keep up with these measures? Probably as long as their infrastructure and resources are intact.
What would be the outcome if the other populations largely ignore similar public health measures? We will get many more infected - resulting in deaths and other bad outcomes.
IMHO it is the difference in the chart being used to depict “flatten the curve”.
That chart has been used here in US to urge compliance with measures to block the spread. I’m sure we’ve all seen it more than once.
The idea is to buy time to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and doctors/nurses/etc. Also, to buy time for an effective course of treatment or a vaccine to protect the uninflected.
I think everyone focused on the big red hump - but there is another consequence. Flattening the curve also elongates the blue tail.
Monday’s stock market meltdown was partially fueled by the realization this is a long term problem vs. a quick hit that could end with the Summer. (Yes, I know most here knew that but the general public might not have)
I added my own suggested x-axis timeline (not to scale) below.
Presuming we get an effective vaccine approved, and solve the logistics of inoculation of perhaps 150 million in the US, then this goes into 2021 in my opinion.
Why 150? Because we likely won’t get more than that percentage of US population to line up for hours to get a shot (or multiple shots).
The logistics will be different than the seasonal flu vaccination uptake. That’s because we have a large pent-up demand coronavirus cohort that will rush for inoculation. The seasonal flu vaccination efforts usually stretch out over months.
My outlook isn’t pessimistic, nor is it overly optimistic. But we should plan for long term.
I posted to suggest we will need maximum patience, stay connected and care for others, don’t “catastrophize”, and be mindful of trusted sources of information.
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