Quote:
Originally Posted by mgsooner
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
I read this last night, and it is a lot to take in. My takeaway was that unless we literally want to see the next Great Depression at some point we are going to have to accept that there will be some heightened risk of getting sick/dying over the next 12-18 months and go back to our lives. It is simply not sustainable to do what it would require to keep this completely 100% at bay. It would require 18 months of what the US is currently attempting to do for 15 days.
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Interesting paper. But as always, there are a lot of unknowns. So, let me play devils advocate.
This sentence was important to me.
"Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced."
Have to agree that China and SK future experience may be one indicator of whether suppression can buy enough time in a sustainable fashion.
But for me, even if you wanted to pause and let it come back and then pause again, no one knows quite how to do this for a certainty. We know what worked in China and SK to suppress (for now). We know about the delay that did not work in Italy where the result was an out of control spin. What none of the experts know for sure is how to strike a middle balance (assuming that you and the people you are charged with protecting want you to do that).
That is to say, even if you are willing to pause suppression efforts and let it "roll" and spread and sacrifice a certain percentage of the population (and your citizens would let you do that) how far do you go? And the bigger question (for those who survive), are you sure you can can you put the genie back in the bottle? Or did you fail to account for certain factors? Or did the virus mutate and make your analysis irrelevant?
But regardless of whether suppression is viable strategy to buy enough time until more treatment options become available, none of this changes the short term agreement of experts that an unmitigated surge at this point in the UK or US would overwhelm the healthcare systems and possibly lead to serious mortality numbers.
That unpalatable scenario happened worldwide with the Spanish Flu. Which, after a short pause, pretty much ran its course.
And the effects of a pandemic running its course were not kind to the economy. Ala the the "forgotten depression" of 1920-21.
However, I would note that the world economy still came back, despite the effects of WWI and the Spanish Flu. And we got the Roaring 20's.
I remain confused on a lot of this, but hopeful that we can slow it enough not to overwhelm the healthcare system. And hopefully find some treatments. And hopefully not loose too many people.
Stay safe.
