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Old 21 February 2020, 05:58 AM   #27
Watch Expert
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Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: UK
Watch: Rolex GMT
Posts: 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern View Post
Bubbles won't burst if those who control the market are financially capable of maintaining that control through downturns.
Bubble won’t burst if price increase is genuine.
For example look at inflation, how much is the cost of Mc Donald burger set 10 years ago compared to today, almost 50% increase in price.
So if price of 10 years old good steel sport Rolex watches ; or good location property with steady rental income or blue chip tripple A rating shares with positive dividends; if they experienced price increase by 50% to 100% over 10 years; they are not a bubble. It is normal for price to move up ; as inflations drive the price up of everything except your salary (paid review) or (google ads) earning.

But if stock price of a company that making huge losses increase in share price by 100% in 6 months you know it is likely to be a ponzi scheme.
Or newly built property; sold out and price increased by 100% before it was completed, it maybe a bubble.

Or if price of new released Patek Nautilus or Aquanaut watch just come out of retail store that sell for around US$35,000 retail; and the secondary market for that brand new sealed watch selling for $50,000 or more by grey dealers ; then you know very likely there is a ponzi scheme going on.
I would agree Nautilus and Aquanaut looks awesome, so does most roses that looks pretty but with thorns that will likely to hurt you when you try to grab it.
Some one definitely stirs the market price and create bubble waiting for the watch hype chaser to be drowned. It is a good buy if you can buy at retail store. But a fool would pay 150% to 200% premium 3 months ago, and lose $20,000 now. I think if Nautilus or Aquanaut grey market price 20% over retail is acceptable considering grey dealers want make some profit and pay sales tax.

Every price rise that is not normal, is made by greedy ponzi scheme ; will eventually fall back to the ground, some gradually; some with fast and severe fall. And vice versa; if you deliberately push down a price below their fair value , it will eventually re surface. Example A Lange.
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