Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont
In the previous post that I quoted you were clearly using anecdotes. In this one you are reaching for statistics. Yes the number of Apple “watches” vs Swiss watches is larger but the more meaningful number is revenue which we can’t know. “Fashion changes, style never changes.”, said CoCo Chanel. At best Apple watches are fashionable. Will they ever have style? If so they sure have a long way to go. The news of the death of the Swiss watch industry has been greatly exaggerated based on six years of Apple “watch” data. The sky is not falling.
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Actually, we can get close to knowing. I've been having this discussion for years. The average price of a Swiss watch is about $1000 US, and they shipped 21.1 million units in 2019, so we're looking at around 21 billion in sales. The Apple Watch shipped 30.7 units in 2019, but the average price is unknown, with their watches in the $399-$799'ish range, so pretty close in terms of revenue (and this doesn't even include all the other smartwatch brands.)
2020 was even more dire for the Swiss watch industry, but this year they're back to 2019 levels, at least, while Apple Watch sales have been rising every year, even during 2020 and 2021.
In terms of style, it's impossible to say. As I mentioned earlier, wristwatches were seen as overly feminine until the World War soldiers popularized them. I did see a poll recently that teens highly prefer Apple Watches to mechanicals if given the choice, but that was a bit dubious, so not sure.
I'm obviously not saying the Swiss watch industry is disappearing overnight. I'm saying that it's on the decline, and the big brands like Rolex are trying to move even more upscale. I think we'll be in the peak for maybe the next 10 years, but I don't see it being the case in 30+...so I buy what I like, but not with the long term "investing" in mind that I'm seeing during the current Rolex hysteria. If anything, the current hype may hurt it in the long run (as the other long thread about hype discusses.). Who knows, maybe Rolex will leverage their brand and go "Porsche Taycan" with a smart Rolex someday?? :)
