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Originally Posted by chiscott_29
I'm guessing it is more of the former, but again I don't think that's the only "source". There are several sources to the gray market, and my view is I don't think it's fair to singularly blame ADs.
Going off on a bit of a tangent, I think there is also a lot of gamesmanship going on here with pricing. There is zero chance a 15202 sells at $58k as that's significantly above the current market price (which I believe is now the upper $40s). It's all come down to appearance and feeding the FOMO phenomenon. We're in a market where a dealer can throw any price out there they want. Soon this Jumbo will be gone and we will think "wow, it sold". But, we have no idea at what price. It's just priming the pump to the next price level.
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I'm sure there is a bit of gamesmanship, but it would be silly to think they aren't actually getting these prices or close enough to these prices either. A lot of greys are well respected shops and are here to do business rather than an Instagram post. They work off of % margin (and sure, some will ask for a bit more than that). If their client base aren't prepared to pay, they simply won't advertise it at those amounts.
Most of us won't be able to fathom how much wealth there really is in this world or how many millionaires are minted a day, but the absolute dollar amounts for watches even at the current grey amounts are peanuts compared to other things certain individuals can buy. Times are currently worse than normal with COVID and the last couple years of economy, but where I'm from "investors" are still buying pre-sale condos like ordering stacks of pancakes. Currently 2-3 units a time vs. 5+ a time in 2018. I don't see them having issues spending 20k-30k more a watch if they wanted it.
Those individuals are simply relocating their funds to an another "investment tool"... If you also throw in the hypebeast kids in the mix and suddenly you have both media/social media and legit money in watch game. Pretty hard to keep anything low-profile these days.
Heck... even us talking about it right now on an open forum, can have people influenced one way or the other...