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I don’t think prices will be immune to the economic slowdown, but I doubt we will see a drastic fall in quality pieces. The vintage market was already starting to bifurcate with mediocre pieces being sold at significant discounts or not at all when compared to collector quality pieces.
My own opinion is that you’ll continue to find a weakening market for mediocre pieces, while prices for high quality pieces stagnant as the opportunity cost of a dollar becomes higher (eg better potential returns in the equity market).
I also think that you may not even see these collector pieces hit the secondary market since they’ll be traded among collectors outside of the forums/auctions/online sales platforms. The thought process is that when you have a $50/80/100k watch you’re trying to sell, counter-party risk is your biggest concern. Auctions generally help you avoid this exposure by charging you a fee. However, I feel the watch community is getting more and more connected, and it’s now easier to meet another trusted collector/buyer through meet ups, private dealers, etc.
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