[bod42zx]

Over the last 12 months or so I have been fairly regularly watching the supply of brand new ss Rolexes being newly listed on eBay (uk) which I think gives an interesting insight into the supply that in turn has been received by ADs. Now before everyone jumps on this, just to stress it is not a scientific study, just a few informal comments and I’m not suggesting this presents anything new that hasn’t been speculated about in previous posts.

So he goes:-

- the number of ‘accidental’ so-called grey dealers has increased as the margins have gone up and scarcity has increased. That’s an obvious supply and demand point but a lot of sellers have just looked at the instant profit to be made and decided to sell on, although that wasn’t their initial intention when putting their name down. This can be deduced from the seller profile and direct contact.

- latterly (q3 & q4 2017) there are more sellers who have most likely been looking to flip from the outset, particularly on the BLNR, where immediate re-sales have become common. The date on the warranty card is sometimes the same day as the eBay listing!

- on the BLNR, there is clearly a steady flow into ADs, significantly more than subs

- there was a big drought of sub dates from q2 to the beginning of q4, but in December the tap was turned on there was clearly a re-stock

- the above was not evident for the non-date

- the LVc was in limited supply with a c£500 premium during q1 but then as catalogued in detail on this forum, demand went through the roof and this was matched with a very limited supply and few listings on eBay: by q3 and q4 almost none

- the sd43 was in good supply in the summer and again in November, with prices easing due to good supply from 11.5 down to 10.5 or slightly less between the two points. It appears a fair number have gone through ADs as formal gets have good stock too.

So to stress again, it’s not scientific and just a few observations and I’m not going to ascribe reasons to them.